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| quote: | | Well I looked up your sources but I couldn't find anything pertinent. It would be a lot more helpful to reference directly to your arguments. |
you can find the facts that I use to base my assumptions( which admittedly is all they are) on the information I provided. There is plenty of information on the wealth gap, trade deficits etc on the information I provided. I stand by my statement that america is far weaker now than it was 20 years ago, even with the fall of the Soviet Union because america is far more indebted than it was previously. Its dependance on imports is a major liability.
As Warren Buffett once said "it doesnt matter that no-one else agrees with you provided your beliefs are solidly based"
And the facts are america has many of the same fundamental characteristics in its economy as others in the 90's that led to capital flight.
You want information on capital flows, trade issues, the OECD and IMF webpages will have plenty of useful information.
| quote: | | Secondly, I fail to see how a flight of capital would occurr. Perhaps if there were political instability in the US government such that foreign investors would be apprehensive about investing capital here, then MAYBE I could see such a scenario happening. |
Well as I mentioned previously a major crisis in the derivatives market could do it. Dont believe that there is a problem. Do a Google search on the keywords Warren Buffett and derivatives market will give you plenty of food for thought.
No one forsaw the Long Term Capital Management disaster, no one forsaw the fall of the Soviet Union (well they did but no one listened to them) until overnight it collapsed.
| quote: | | How could they occur in US markets? The economic situation is so drastically different between these markets that it's absurd to imply such scnearios could impact US or European markets in a similar matter. |
Put simply government debt and the trade debt are real problems and the spectre of debt deflation in the US is not imaginary its real. And that spectre of debt and americas indebtedness to foreigners hamper americas ability to act completely unilaterally and will also hamper economic growth. Look at Japan to see the impact of unserviceable debt. America is dependant on debt to service its expenditure and that dependancy creates weakness. Dont believe me, again just watch CNBC or pick up the WSJ and im sure they will mention trade and debt issues with some concern.
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