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| quote: | Originally posted by Spin Doctor
Simply put; Just because something is highly IMPROBABLE, it does not mean it is IMPOSSIBLE. Given the mind bogglingly vast size and age of the universe, virtually anything can, will and has happened by sheer law of numbers. 1 in 1040,000 may qualify in real world terms as impossible, but in universals terms, that’s nothing. There are way more then 1040,000 planets in the universe, thus more than ample for life to develop. |
I'm glad you posted this, because I forgot to address it in my other posts.
When you talk about the odds of life forming, or the universe being created, or the brain containing x amount of cells being extremely low, even if we assume that the odds are as small as this article suggests, please be aware that to use these odds as evidence of ID, you're overlooking the Law of Truly Large Numbers and the Anthropic Principle as a satisfactory means of explaining why we have defied the odds that suggest, mathetatically, that we shouldn't exist.
The Law of Truly Large Numbers can be best explained by walking along the beach. Stop at a random location, pick up a grain of sand and then look at it. Do you have any idea how small the odds are of you selecting that particular grain of sand at random? Literally billions upon billions to one. You'd have a greater chance of winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning on the same day. Yet is there anything miraculous about bending over and picking up a grain of sand? Must there be something divine about that grain of sand for you to have picked it up against seemingly impossible odds? Let's really screw up the odds then: take off your shoes and go running around the beach. Then, when you leave and get back to your car, scrape all the sand off your feet into a tub or something, study them and then consider the odds: there's probably several hundred (more likely thousands) of grains of sand in that tub, out of several billion that exist on the beach. Do you have any idea what the odds are of you leaving the beach with those grains of sand are? Does someone want to work it out? I wouldn't mind betting that the odds are far smaller than any of the odds provided in the articles - and yet all you've done is go to the beach. The odds of going to the beach and scraping certain grains of sand into a tub are much smaller than the possibility of life, or the possibility of human existence.
And that's all the current state of the universe is - the infinitely improbable (yet inevitable) culmination of billions of billion to one shots of varying importance. Even if we consider the past 24 hours on Earth (an infinitesimally small part of the time and space in the universe as a whole) the fact that it is in the exact state it's in now rather than in some other state is immesurably small. From someone winning the lottery in the UK, to someone getting struck by lightning in Taiwan, to two specific oxygen atoms (out of trillions) combining with one specific carbon atom (out of trillions) in Peru to form a specific Carbon-dioxide mollecule (out of trillions), the cumulative odds of everything that's happened on Earth in the past 24 hours actually happenning would be written as a one placed over the biggest number you've ever encountered in your life. But is there anything that's occurred in the past 24 hours that is especially remarkable or necessarily "divine" in nature? No. It's merely the law of truly large numbers.
The anthropic principle is a little harder to explain, but all it basically states is that these "impossible odds" do occur, and that we shouldn't feel as though it's a miracle in any sense that we do exist in a universe "configured" perfectly to our existence. If the universe wasn't configured like it is now, we wouldn't be around to notice, just as if the world had turned out in a different state (out of zillions of possible states) after the last 24 hours, we wouldn't know any differently. If there are a billion possible outcomes of equal importance - just as there may be a billion grains of sand to choose from at the beach - by definition, one of these billion to one shots must occur, just as, if we were to go to the beach with the intention of picking up a grain of sand, we must go home with one of the billion. There is nothing remarkable about events of a very low probability occuring because, paradoxically, billion to one outcomes must, by definition, occur.
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