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Finally I got unlazy ...
Week Ending August 22
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Sweden]: 2.0%
FIRST TAKE: As was widely anticipated, the monetary authorities left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.0%, citing favourable inflationary conditions in spite of a strengthening and broadening recovery.
RELEASE: GDP [France]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: French real gross domestic product rose 0.8% in the second quarter, in line with last week’s flash estimate and matching the rate of expansion in the first quarter. Business investment led growth, while net trade was a substantial drag on the overall expansion.
RELEASE: GDP [Taiwan]: 7.7%
FIRST TAKE: Economic activity in Taiwan surged in the second quarter. According to the National Statistics of Taiwan, real GDP in 2004Q2 grew at 7.7% on a year ago basis, not seasonally adjusted, up from 6.7% in 2004Q1.
RELEASE: Balance of Payments [Euro Zone]: 4.5 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The balance on the current account for the euro area turned negative during June. According to Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency, the euro area registered a seasonally-adjusted current account deficit of €500 million during June, a decline of €6.5 billion from the previous month. The goods balance deteriorated by €4.3 billion, and the deficit on income increased. On the financial side, net portfolio inflows topped an outflow of net FDI, to drive total net inflows during the month.
RELEASE: Foreign Trade [Euro Zone]: 8.7 billion euros
FIRST TAKE: The euro area trade report for June showed a smaller trade surplus. According to Eurostat, import growth outpaced exports to drive the seasonally-adjusted trade balance down to €7.1 billion from €9.1 billion. Trade continues to be supportive of growth, however, as year-to-date exports are growing faster than imports, and the trade balance is more than double one year ago.
RELEASE: Retail Trade [Hungary]: 7.4%
FIRST TAKE: Hungarian retail sales grew 7.4% in June from a year ago, up from 6.3% in May. The pace of retail sales growth is down substantially from last year's unsustainable rate, and is expected to ease further due to tepid real wage gains.
RELEASE: Retail Sales [United Kingdom]: 6.6%
FIRST TAKE: In July, the British retail sector ended its longest uninterrupted streak of monthly growth since comparable statistics began in 1986. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), sales dipped 0.4% m/m, exceeding the median forecast for a 0.2% contraction. This, however, by no means suggests overall weakness in the retail trade: sales were still up a substantial 6.6% y/y.
RELEASE: Retail Sales Index [Czech Republic]: 4.5%
FIRST TAKE: Czech retail sales rebounded in June. According to the Czech Statistical Office, retail sales advanced 1.8% from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Strong auto sales played a major role in the turnaround.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Euro Zone]: 2.3
FIRST TAKE: The July report on euro-zone inflation came in very soft. According to Eurostat, the E.U. statistical agency, consumer prices fell 0.2% during July from the previous month, which pushes the year-ago rate down a tenth of a percentage point to 2.3%. Core inflation fell even more. The turnout was driven by a sharp plunge in clothing prices, which had been elevated of late. Energy prices are higher, and will march higher still in subsequent reports. The turnout reinforces a constant monetary policy through the end of the year.
RELEASE: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment [Germany]: 45.3
FIRST TAKE: The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell to its lowest level in one year in August. The drop exceeded expectations for a slightly more moderate decline in the index. Despite the drop recorded for August, the index points to a continuation of the moderate expansion currently underway in Europe’s largest economy.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Euro Zone]: -0.40%
FIRST TAKE: June production data for the euro area came in soft. According to Eurostat, the E.U. statistical agency, industrial production decreased 0.4% in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis. The decline was driven by a large m/m drop-off in German output, and a moderate decrease in Italy. Manufacturing activity is still growing, however, and one should not put too much emphasis on the June turnout. We expect manufacturing to continue to expand for the remainder of the year.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Sweden]: -1.4%
FIRST TAKE: According to Statistics Sweden, total industrial production finished-off the second quarter on a weak note, dipping a seasonally adjusted 1.4% month-on-month in June. This contrasts with the 1.1% growth rate notched in May and pulls the expansion over a year ago down to 4.3% from 7.7% the previous month.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Hungary]: 11.0%
FIRST TAKE: The National Bank of Hungary cut its policy rate by 50 bps to 11% today. The size/timing of the rate cut was in line with expectations.
Week Ending August 15
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Hungary]: 8.7%
FIRST TAKE: Hungarian industrial production remains strong, up 8.7% from a year ago in June. Industrial production has been growing at rates at or above 9% since late last year, thanks to strong exports. Forward looking indicators point to moderately slower growth going forward, however.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [France]: 2.3%
FIRST TAKE: Annual CPI inflation in France slowed for the second consecutive month, to 2.3% in July. Apparel and fresh food prices declined sharply in the month while service inflation accelerated. Annual harmonized inflation also moderated, to 2.6% from last year.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Belgium]: 7.3%
FIRST TAKE: Belgium's industrial production index rose a solid 7.3% on a deseasonalized year-ago basis in May. The initial estimate for April was revised upward to a 2.4% gain from a 2.2% expansion.
RELEASE: GDP [Germany]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Economic growth in Germany accelerated slightly in the second quarter of 2004. Real GDP expanded by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter after adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects. The increase in economic activity was well within expectations.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Czech Republic]: 12.8%
FIRST TAKE: According to the Czech Statistical Office, industrial output adjusted for work days increased 12.8% in June on a year-ago basis. This is the fourth consecutive month of double-digit, year-over-year growth. Production expanded 1.7% from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis.
RELEASE: GDP [Netherlands]: 1.0%
FIRST TAKE: GDP rose 1.0% in the second quarter from the same period in 2003, according to data released today by Statistics Netherlands. This is the second quarter of positive year-on-year growth, and could be a sign of a nascent recovery.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [India]: 7.3%
FIRST TAKE: India’s industrial activity continued to expand at a strong pace in June, growing 7.3% on a year-ago basis. Capital goods investment was especially strong in June. The latest numbers affirm another strong quarter of growth in the second quarter of 2004. Early fears of a slowdown thanks to weaker monsoons in July and August have receded, but may still be reflected in lower IP numbers in the near term.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Greece]: -1.5%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Greece dipped 1.5% year on year in June, according to the nation's statistical service. This more than reverses May's 1.4% gain and is the first dip below year-earlier levels since January.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Indonesia]: 15.0%
FIRST TAKE: Indonesian output decelerated in June. According to Bank Indonesia, growth in industrial production slipped to 15% on a year-ago basis in June from a revised 19.5% in May. Trade data are still firm, but the extended election may sap domestic production some.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Germany]: 1.8%
FIRST TAKE: The risks for Europe’s largest economy remain decidedly on the side of economic weakness. Inflation in Germany remained subdued in July recording a mere 1.8% increase compared to the same month one year ago. However, inflation has accelerated compared to the beginning of the year due to higher energy prices.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Netherlands]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: The Dutch manufacturing industry is once again showing signs of revival, although recent gains have been extremely limited. According to data released by Statistics Netherlands, industrial production in June was up 0.1% in June 2003. On a monthly basis, manufacturing output fell 0.2%.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [United Kingdom]: 2.7 % Unemployment
FIRST TAKE: The U.K. labour market let out steam for a second consecutive month, according to figures contained in the Office of National Statistics’ monthly workforce survey. The underlying data are mixed: the unemployment rate rose, while the employment rate slipped. However, job vacancies rose vis-à-vis a year ago and the number of benefits claimants dropped yet again. The market has eased for two consecutive months, yet nonetheless remains historically very tight.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Norway]: 1.75%
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the Norges Bank held monetary policy constant. At the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board at the Norges Bank decided to maintain the target for its monetary policy instrument—the sight deposit rate—at 1.75%. Economic growth is still accelerating, but low import prices and rising productivity at home are constraining price pressures. As such, the Norges Bank is likely to hold rates steady through the end of the year.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Japan]: No change
FIRST TAKE: The BoJ did not adjust its key monetary settings. Local conditions seem tolerable at present though it looks as if deflation will not end in the short term.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [France]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: French output data registered a moderate increase during June. According to Insee, total industrial production increased 0.2% during June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, which put year-ago growth at 2.7%--a decrease from the previous month. Manufacturing output was a bit stronger. French manufacturing is faring better than moost in the euro area.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United Kingdom]: 1.4%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer price inflation, as calculated by EU-harmonized standards, dipped 0.3% month on month in July, according to the Office of National Statistics. This beats expectations for a 0.1% drop and pulls the annual rate of price growth down to 1.4%, from 1.6% the previous month. These results reflect the dovish short-term inflationary view held by the Bank of England, and will allow the MPC to maintain a gradualist approach to monetary tightening.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Turkey]: 15.7%
FIRST TAKE: Turkish industrial production expanded at a 15.7%pace in June on a year-ago basis, slightly slower than last month. Computer equipment and motor vehicle manufacturing are driving the robust industrial expansion.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Italy]: -0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production in Italy slumped 0.7% in June, the sixth time in the last seven months that output has failed to advance.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Denmark]: 4.1%
FIRST TAKE: Danish industrial production dipped by 0.7% in June after an upwardly-revised May. Still, production was up 4.1% on a year-ago basis, its third consecutive month of solid year-ago comparison.
I wouldn't count on Germany performing better yet ...
http://www.economist.com/agenda/dis...tory_id=3125928
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Retro ...
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