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| quote: | Originally posted by Omega_Blue
which call are we talking about? postflop? it wasn't a good call. i probably would've made it (depending on the size of the bet in relation to the size of the pot and my own stack, i can't remember what it was exactly) hoping to catch a draw, 2 pair, a set, or to represent an A but after the turn i'm out if i miss- i'm losing money most of the time by playing it like he did. he got lucky and you know it. he has to assume that his opponent holds AK or a big pocket pair, which means he wasn't drawing to anything except his kicker or a set with a 10, and he has to worry about a flush draw and a gutshot draw with KQ/QJ/KJ post flop. and the ace. tell me what made calling a five-outer when the original raiser was obviously representing a big pocket pair or AKs a good call? look at his odds postflop- 16%. awful. what if dude had AA (he played his hand like he could've had that) and caught a set on the flop? i'm drawing dead. furthermore, 2 of my outs (the Jh and 10h) make possible flushes for my opponent- so i'm only feeling REALLY comfortable about 3 of my outs (Js, Jd, 10c). and the jack makes a believable (but unlikely) straight possibility.
or even calling after the re-raise preflop, when again the re-raiser telegraphed "i have a big hand"? it was a loose call that he got lucky with. 9 times out of 10 that hand is gonna fucking fail against KK. if the turn wasn't a J or a 10 he would've had to lay it down or make a play at it; both of which would've concluded with him losing money (since his opponent was most likely going to call any bet, as he demonstrated by making the horrendous call on the river). the only thing i credit him for is inducing the call on the river by overbetting, but the way the hand was played and the amount of money that was already in play, he was going to call anything imo. dwan took advantage of the guy with the big pocket pair because he felt backed into a corner, investing a ton of money (~$100,000 pre-river) on a big pre-flop hand that failed him.
both of those hands i'm shocked he got his opponents to lay it down/call with whatever hands they had. call me a tight player i guess but i would'nt have played those cards that way at all. i would've been more likely to raise after the continuation bet on the flop, playing my position in an effort to get him off of his big pocket pair (hoping that he doesn't hold an A)- sure i wouldn't have made as much money (unless he called, so when the turn hits the same result would've occurred) but i would've possibly stolen the pot from a far superior hand. or again, i would've called hoping for a miracle and then folded after the turn (unless the turn was a scare card for my opponent, or a big drawing card for myself).
i'd love to hear what you would've done though and how/why your logic differs from mine so much- seriously interested, and maybe i'm thinking about it the wrong way.
+1, i'm speculating on this single hand and this hand alone solely because i wasn't there to participate in the entire game. it's all speculation, again. |
Again, Dwan already represented a big hand with a re-raise preflop and called another re-raise with position. Dwan's advantage the whole way is position on a person who he has narrowed his range inbetween 1-3 hands preflop, and post flop down to 1-2 by what his opponent does. Now that Meltzer is outta position, and with little clue to Dwan's holding, the fact that Dwan could make a play at the pot, or just win it straight up by outdrawing, he has great incentive to play the pot post flop by just calling. Also, Meltzer is a somewhat tight player and Dwan is hyper aggresive, you dont have that information by just seeing the hand. But by folding here, is a big loss (30k), you will notice that lots of good players like to float the flop to the turn with middle pair, because the hand isnt over and you can re-draw on the turn as well.
You obviously play more on the cards, which is fine, but come time to playing guys who know their stuff, theyre gonna start picking you off. You are the equivilant of Phil Hellmuth at Cash Games, its not bad, but dont expect good players to pay you off unless you get really lucky with set ups.
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