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The LRA today (early 2011)
There are many similarities between the LRA of the past (pre-December 2008) and that of the present. Kony exerts a powerful personal influence over his troops. The LRA remains a movement largely dominated by people from northern Uganda, and LRA commanders continue to tell their fighters that they will soon return to Uganda where
everyone will be rewarded with posts in the Ugandan government or army. Despite these commonalities, much has changed within the LRA in the past 22 months. Kony no longer has complete and direct command-and-control over each LRA group.
As fighters from northern Uganda defect or are killed and are replaced by foreign fighters, the Ugandans are decreasing in number relative to Congolese, Central African, and Sudanese fighters.
It is fear rather than ideology that keeps Ugandan and foreign fighters in the LRA today. The LRA’s rank-and-file fear being killed by their commanders if caught trying to escape or fear of being killed by the national armies or relatives of people they killed, once they return home.
Crucially, the number of fighters in the LRA is dwindling. About 400 fighters remain operational today, less than half of the number in action of two years ago. While the ranks of foreign fighters have been replenished, the Ugandan fighters are at an all-time low. There has been a slow but steady defection of Ugandans since December 2008.
Were this rate to remain constant for the next 12 months, there would hardly be any Ugandan fighters left in the LRA.
Despite being weakened, the LRA’s propensity for violence remains undiminished. The LRA has become efficient at creating mass havoc with very few fighters, which is not surprising given their propensity to target unarmed civilians. What keeps Kony and other
commanders going is the possibility of renewed external support, particularly from their former backers in Khartoum. Without Sudanese support, there are few options left for Kony, who has seen his organization reach its weakest point in the last 15 years. But by
securing new support from Sudan, as happened in 1994 and 2002, the LRA could pose a significant threat across the region, particularly in South Sudan.
Numbers and composition
Based on Enough interviews with former LRA fighters, there are about 400 LRA fighters operating in three countries. This number does not include women, children, and abductees who are used solely to carry food and other looted materials. Close to 250 fighters are Ugandans, the other 150 being from Sudan, Congo, and CAR. The Ugandan army claims that from December 14, 2008 through August 2010, the UPDF killed 397 LRA fighters and captured 63, with another 123 defections. The UPDF has not specified the nationality of fighters killed or the exact number of fighters remaining in the LRA.
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