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OrangestO
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Old Post Jun-28-2014 15:46 
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djnitride
Tiesto played my record



Registered: Nov 2009
Location: Texas

Ive played once in my life when the mega millions was at an all time high.

What I learned was there are much better ways to waste my money.

Old Post Jun-28-2014 16:36  United States
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Lagrangian
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Registered: Feb 2012
Location: Mountain View, Santa Clara, California

the formula goes like this: There are a total of n-different groups (in this case) of six numbers [6!] About 14,000,000. These numbers could be drawn from a countable-set {1, 2, ... , 49}. We follow the distribution: here are 49 possibilities for the first number drawn, following 48 possibilities for the second number, 47 for the third, 46 for the fourth, 45 for the fifth, and 44 for the sixth. If we multiply the numbers 49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 we get 10,068,347,520.

Now imagine, this group (in this case) of six numbers can combine their draws in different ways; we care about the first number drawn, then the second, and so on.

There are 6 choices for the first, 5 for the second, 4 for the third, 3 for the fourth, 2 for the fifth, and 1 for the sixth. Multiply these numbers out to arrive at 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720.

We then need to divide the total permutation of groups, in this case: 10,068,347,520 by the total amount of events (each number in the set of six lottery numbers is considered an 'event') which is 720. This gives you about 14,000,000 as the number of different group permutations of "six numbers" (each event must not share a number; all numbers shall be equal in our assumption). All numbers are likely to appear at least once -- the probability of SOME number drawn is always 1, because we know at least we're drawing ONE number. Well, each pick of six numbers has a probability of 1/13,983,816 = 0.00000007151.

Your chances of winning the lotto are comparable to drawing 24 heads in succession when flipping a FAIR coin!


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Old Post Jun-28-2014 17:26  Norway
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Lagrangian
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Registered: Feb 2012
Location: Mountain View, Santa Clara, California

I have been writing state machines all night.


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Old Post Jun-28-2014 17:32  Norway
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DJ RANN
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Registered: May 2001
Location: Hollywood....

Actually the odds of winning any prize is 1 in 15 (which isn't really bad and better odds than any casino game) but the odds of winning the mega millions jackpot is 1 in 259 million.

Old Post Jun-28-2014 23:30 
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