quote:

Originally posted by kirbtastic the odds of winning the new jersey pick 6 lotto is 1 in 13,983,816, but cant u say its also say its a 50/50 chance because the ticket u buy is either a winner or a loser .. i understand that u have many more chances of buying a loser ... but at the direct moment of purchasing a ticket i think you can describe your chances as 50%. the machine is going to spit out a winner or loser .. ive been arguing with my friend over this for a week now.

u cant assign 2 probabilities to the same statement. Its either one of the other. In this case, uve got a 1/14,000,000 chance of winning.

this post os fuckin hilarious, christ almighty. its 1 in 14000000 end of story. you cna apply yout 50/50 method to every thing in life.

___________________

I have to tell you there is not a "50/50 chance" of you winning this bet. I understand the point you are trying to make, but to estimate chance (50/50 etc...), probabilities have to be taken into account...

___________________

"I expect to pass through life but once. If therefore, there be any kindness I can show, or any good thing I can do to any fellow being, let me do it now, and not defer or neglect it, as I shall not pass this way again."

Let's try to look at it this way.
You have, say 5 tickets, and only one is a winner.
Each ticket has 20% chance of being chosen. Although there are two possible outcomes, that's obvious, and the ticket you get is either winner or loser, chance of it being a winner is only 20%.
Let's say ticket 2 is the winner, here we have all possible cases:
Case 1: ticket 1, you lose
Case 2: ticket 2, you win
Case 3: ticket 3, you lose
Case 4: ticket 4, you lose
Case 5: ticket 5, you lose
Here you see that only 1/5 options are correct, or 20%.
Your fault is grouping all the losing tickets into one option and only a single one into the other. That way you make their chances equal when they're not.

___________________
1+1=10

quote:

Originally posted by kirbtastic lol...no i agree i was wording it incorrectly .... with stuff like these questions there are only two possible outcomes, no matter what the chances of one of those outcomes happening is ... i was wrong by using the 50/50 statement ... thanks again to Insomneac

read the rest of the thread ... stop giving me probabilty answers ... this thread has been answered already by insomneac ... lynx can close it now

___________________

pixel8edconcepts.com :: new flash site in the works

this is the funniest thing i have read in a long time. kirb, there is a 1.00 probability that you are going to lose your money.

___________________

Visit my site Antiwar Homepage

quote:

Originally posted by JohnSmith this is the funniest thing i have read in a long time. kirb, there is a 1.00 probability that you are going to lose your money.

actually i won the money because the kid agreed with me that a lottery ticket can only have 2 possible outcomes [which was the only point i was trying to make].. i didnt take the money because i agree that i worded my arguement incorrectly.

___________________

pixel8edconcepts.com :: new flash site in the works

Crickets???
Balls???

Damn!

___________________
"...End? No, the journey doesn't end here. Death is just another path...one that we all must take.
The grey rain-curtain of this world rolls back, and all change to silver glass...and then you see it...
...white shores...and beyond...the far green country under a swift sunrise."