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Capitalizt
Supreme tranceaddict
Registered: Feb 2005
Location: USA
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Feb-05-2008 23:26
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atbell
Supreme tranceaddict

Registered: May 2007
Location: Toronto, Canada
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| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Anyone have anything they want to add to my list? |
I'd like to see you take a look at BAM (Brookfeild Asset Management), it's been down since I bought it (currently down 18%) yet it has a strong portfolio of corperate realestate (which might be the cause) and green power generation.
...
A look at what I'm holding (still, I haven't bought or sold since I started)
RTP is almost the full amount of my gains, it is up 31% since I started. (Rio Tinto is one of the biggest mining companies in the world. It's currently in the midst of take over talks so I'm assuming that's part of the reason for the strength. The other part would be the amount of metal it owns in world wide deposits. Can't go wrong with metal in the ground, it's doing better then money in the bank.)
BHP is holding strong with small gains. (Australian Steel / iron ore company, I think the leading world producer right now. It also has massive proven reserves, multiple long term contracts with Chines firms, and knowledge of the AUS culture / climate that is essential for working in the country.)
Finnally dirty Haliburton (HAL) has slipped into loss teritory (down 3% since my start). I wonder if thier stock price is inverslely related to media reports of Iraqi instability. In other words, the surge hurt HAL, pitty the NeoCons were right on one thing while being wrong on another.
All of my oil companies are down, which I really don't understand at all. Chevron (CVX) down 11%, BP (BP) down 13%, and Royal Duch Shell (RDS.B) down a massive 22%. My guess is that this is due to growth potential, which the market sees as nil. In other words the market doesn't think oil can rise any higher which means returns will be bigger in other areas. I tend to think this is wrong. Oil demand is near perfectly inelastic, as has been seen by stable GROWTH in oil demand in developed economies and stable high GROWTH in developing economies despite massive increases in gas prices.
From what I've seen the demand is rising at a moderate rate as India and China develope and the rest of the world continues at the same level. This means that the slope of the demand curve must be very steep for oil or else it would never be able to sustain such quickly rising prices in the face of slightly increaseing supply. If it wasn't steep the price increases brought on by the shifting of the demand curve (due to new demand in China and India) would cause old demand (US + EU) to seek out more cost effective means of utility maximising (like riding the bus to be able to get to work and still consume that morning coffee / twinky).
Instead developed economies are eating less twinkies / coffees because they don't like the bus ... or have no option to take the bus.
That's it, I've convinced myself. Here's my first buy / sell on this thing. Out of RIO and into my loosers, we'll see how this goes.
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Feb-06-2008 17:44
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Krypton
83.798 g/6.022x10^23

Registered: Nov 2003
Location: Texas
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Feb-13-2008 22:33
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Capitalizt
Supreme tranceaddict
Registered: Feb 2005
Location: USA
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We still haven't seen a bloody selloff in the stock market so I'm hesitant to buy anything here no matter how good it looks. I think we really some good old fashioned panic selling...capitulation...a sense of total hopelessness. That is what signals a bottom and we haven't seen it yet.
I don't think Wall St. has fully taken into account the economic policies we will get when the dems win the White House this year. I think a Hellary or Obama Presidency would chop 20% off the market fairly quickly. With dems in control of all three branches of government, it is a guarantee that capital gains taxes will go up, corporate taxes will go up, and the top tax rate for small businesses will go up...all very bearish for the market.
Keep some powder dry folks.
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Feb-13-2008 23:41
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