I guess Krypton and Atbell were right. Fears of stagflation is starting to be a more common element as of late in financial writing. The question is, how severe is this going to be? My macro-econ is a bit rusty right now, so I'll shy away from analyzing the situation. But with gold nearing US$1000 and oil breaking US$100 for the second time, inflation going up more than what the fed expected and the economy starting to slow down, things are looking a bit grim.

quote:

Gold nears $1,000 as stagflation fears grow By Chris Flood Published: February 21 2008 17:17 | Last updated: February 21 2008 17:17 Gold hit a record $953.60 a troy ounce on Thursday as oil’s move above $100 and inflation fears provided fresh upward momentum. Fuelling the rally were fears the US economy could be heading for stag_flation after the Federal Reserve published forecasts for lower growth and higher inflation. EDITOR’S CHOICE Investors expect further US rate cuts to stimulate growth, but worry that easing monetary policy will undermine the battle to control inflation. Daniel Hynes, metals strategist at Merrill Lynch, pointed to “a multitude” of drivers pushing gold higher. “But the latest is inflation concerns. We’ve seen money continue to flow into the sector. Every time there is a dip in gold prices, buyers come in aggressively.” Strong inflows into gold exchange-traded funds have helped gold prices rise 14.4 per cent this year. “The fight against inflation is being sacrificed in G7 countries to avert the risk of recession and investors are likely to seek gold as an inflation hedge,” said Mandy La Grange of Nomura, who forecasts gold to average $1,000 this year.

Source

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Poetry>Byron//Blog>TheMean

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Orbax At that point you kind of crossed the rubicon and you might as well lay siege to Rome

Tradeking has a pretty good fundamental analysis grader called MarketGrader. This is what I get for DSX...

Company Performs Well In Fundamental Analysis -

MarketGrader currently has a BUY rating on DIANA SHIPPING INC (DSX), based on a final overall grade of 68.3 (out of 100) scored by the company's fundamental analysis. DIANA SHIPPING INC scores at the 91st percentile among all 5374 U.S. listed equities currently followed by MarketGrader. Our present rating dates to November 9, 2006, when it was upgraded from a HOLD. Relative to the Marine sub-industry, which is comprised of 23 companies, DIANA SHIPPING INC's grade of 68.3 ranks seventh. The industry grade leader is DRYSHIPS INC (DRYS) with an overall grade of 83.3. The stock, up 18.68% in the last six months, has outperformed both the Marine group, down 2.26% and the S&P 500 Index, which has returned -7.69% in the same period.

I got little inspiration...

New 'target price' formula.



(Fundamental Strength) x (52 Week High / Minimum fundamental strength for "strong buy" rating) = Target Price



So check this out (EXAMPLE). I'm setting a target price for DSX.....

DSX
Fundamental strength = 85
52 week high = $45.15
Minimum fundamental strength for "strong buy" rating = 85

85 x (45.15/85) = 45.15

DSX is worth $45.15 according to this formula. DSX currently trades at $30.58 meaning DSX is 47 to 48% undervalued. This formula indicates DSX is trading at a much lower price than the stock is actually worth.

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Have fun finding cheap stocks. They are all over the place. My formula might help you out....

I hope you didn't sell your gold & silver coins krypt..

The dollar is going down the toilet

quote:

Originally posted by Capitalizt I hope you didn't sell your gold & silver coins krypt.. The dollar is going down the toilet

Oh HELL no. My $800 buy of gold/silver turned into $1000 plus. This would be my doomsday fund basically...

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton I'de have to disagree. I'm 100% bullish. The shortage of ships and carriers gives shippers the ability to charge very high rates. The sector's economic moat is the demand for consumer staples that people need in all economic periods. The stocks certainly are volatile, but I would not base analysis of the industry to stock volatility. I believe the volatility is just traders doing their thing. Despite the stock volatility, I consider drybulk-shippers an investor's gem right now.

Dry bulk was a gem. Now I don't think so. If I remeber corectly there is a wack of bulkers getting ready to hit the oceans. It is also strongly dependant on the fleet distribution of the company. Handy size vessels have a completely different demand profile then cape size or panamax ships (although they are somewhat related).

Ships aren't like trucks or gold, each one is different and every contgract is written on a case by case basis. The supply isn't simply a matter of how many tonnes of shipping are available.

It's not stock volitility that you should be looking at either, most shipping companies are private and almost none of the international ones are owned or operated by US interests. The baltic dry index is a bit better indicator then the stock price fluxuations.

quote:

Originally posted by venomX I guess Krypton and Atbell were right. Fears of stagflation is starting to be a more common element as of late in financial writing. The question is, how severe is this going to be? My macro-econ is a bit rusty right now, so I'll shy away from analyzing the situation. But with gold nearing US$1000 and oil breaking US$100 for the second time, inflation going up more than what the fed expected and the economy starting to slow down, things are looking a bit grim. Source

There is a good article by the Fed about inflation. I didn't quite finish it but it talks specifically about the trade off between inflation and economic growth.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...in20080225a.htm

From my read it is an assurance that the Fed is starting to be more concerned about inflation but is still going to hold it's expantionary monitary policy until things start to look worse.

quote:

Originally posted by atbell Dry bulk was a gem. Now I don't think so. If I remeber corectly there is a wack of bulkers getting ready to hit the oceans. It is also strongly dependant on the fleet distribution of the company. Handy size vessels have a completely different demand profile then cape size or panamax ships (although they are somewhat related). Ships aren't like trucks or gold, each one is different and every contgract is written on a case by case basis. The supply isn't simply a matter of how many tonnes of shipping are available. It's not stock volitility that you should be looking at either, most shipping companies are private and almost none of the international ones are owned or operated by US interests. The baltic dry index is a bit better indicator then the stock price fluxuations.

Shipping rates have declined from their highs of Fall 2007. BUT, but Iron is 40% of dry bulk cargo. Iron producers have negociated with Chinese steel mills and rates for Iron are 60% higher than last year. Additionally, each cargo ship makes 50k - 160k a day, and only cost 5-6k to maintain. The margins are HUGE with that kind of business. That is at least 100's of thousands of dollars a day in profit. I am very bullish still on the sector. I can stomach the volatility perfectly fine knowing what I know about the business.

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton Shipping rates have declined from their highs of Fall 2007. BUT, but Iron is 40% of dry bulk cargo. Iron producers have negociated with Chinese steel mills and rates for Iron are 60% higher than last year. Additionally, each cargo ship makes 50k - 160k a day, and only cost 5-6k to maintain. The margins are HUGE with that kind of business. That is at least 100's of thousands of dollars a day in profit. I am very bullish still on the sector. I can stomach the volatility perfectly fine knowing what I know about the business.

Iron ships in 500,000 mt ships. The company you posted about had nothing bigger then 170,000 mt or so. Iron sales only slightly affect the trade in that company.

Look at grain, that's what the big commodity will be.

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton I got little inspiration... New 'target price' formula. (Fundamental Strength) x (52 Week High / Minimum fundamental strength for "strong buy" rating) = Target Price So check this out (EXAMPLE). I'm setting a target price for DSX..... DSX Fundamental strength = 85 52 week high = $45.15 Minimum fundamental strength for "strong buy" rating = 85 85 x (45.15/85) = 45.15 DSX is worth $45.15 according to this formula. DSX currently trades at $30.58 meaning DSX is 47 to 48% undervalued. This formula indicates DSX is trading at a much lower price than the stock is actually worth. =============================================================================== Have fun finding cheap stocks. They are all over the place. My formula might help you out....

i'm too lazy to read back. what does fundamental strength measure and what are it's components? How is that number calculated?

quote:

Originally posted by jerZ07002 i'm too lazy to read back. what does fundamental strength measure and what are it's components? How is that number calculated?

Fundamental strength is a grade measured on a scale of 0-100. It is measured by comparing measurements in growth rates, price ratios, profit margins, investment returns, management efficiency, and financial condition of a company with its industry and a benchmark market (i.e. S&P500). Above 85 FS is like having a grade A, strong buy. 70 is buy. 60 is hold. 45 is sell, 30 is strong sell. Above 0 is consider short.

You might find this interesting. The page before this (page 37) has all my most recent data. I have an excel spreadsheet which uses my 52 week high formula. It's easy to use and has instructions. PM me your email and I'll send you the file. All you have to do is type in 2 numbers. The 52 week high and the FS. Also, I have a sister formula for MSN Money's ratings for the stocks. So you can have TWO estimates of a target price. Also the spreadsheet averages the two results. Remember the more data you have, the more precise your predictions can be.