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| quote: | Originally posted by St_Andrew
to all you "war is the only solution people":
do you honestly think that you can bomb al quaida to an end?
i still miss an successful example of no diplomacy - whatsoever - solution to a terrorist conflict, please give me one... |
The Jewish revolts against Rome in 66AD and 122AD?
Heh in all serious however, there is simply no one to initiate diplomacy with with respects to this conflict. Furthermore, I would pose the argument that violence does not necessarily beget violence in this specific situation. One could make the claim that the number of cases of attacks could potentially increase, but with respect to the combined effectiveness and sophistication of the attacks, I would make the claim that they would actually decrease over the cycle of violence. Why? Well, simply put, there is no concrete cause to rally against that would engender anything but individual sympathy for the terrorist cause. There is no homeland to protect, there is no great invader to repel (hopefully once the transfer is complete this will become self-evident), there is no grave injustice that is the root of the global Al-Qaeda cause. They are campaigning on a systematic offensive to attain idealogical goals. And while this may draw from the ranks of likeminded indivduals, it is relatively poor attraction for the general masses.
So in effect, while the cylce of violence may continue, over time, the random, indiscriminate attacks (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Iraq, whoever) will only strengthen global resolve and cooperation against these groups. Furthermore, the mere nature of the attacks alone unite the majority against the Al-Qaeda cause since their attacks directly affect the very group they are attempting to recruit from. Lastly as each attack against indiscriminate innocents unites global resolve, it also serves to remove the capability of Al-Qaeda type groups the ability to operate freely in ANY country that desires some kind of good relations with the rest of the world.
Therefore while violence may beget violence in the short term, it is not a fight Al-Qaeda can win in the long run. It would be erroneous to try and portray it as being similar to the Palestinian/Israeli cycle of violence. Imagine Palestinian terrorists who are completely isolated from the rest of the world, even from the PLO, and Israel possessed the greatest lattitude in dealing with them.
The ONLY possible way Al-Qaeda can successfully survive is IF it generates a true following of middle easterners who would be willing to sanction violence in an effort ot overthrow existing governments in order to acheive fundementalist states.
Or the west does something extremely stupid ...
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Retro ...
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