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I've been terribly neglectful of this forum and esp. this thread. Since I told my boss that I'm going back to school this summer, I've had to spend last week, and better portion of the next 2 months training the new guy all my daily functions. So apologies for that.
Now on to your points:
| quote: | Originally posted by trancaholic
First of all: Sorry for writing "48 hours" and then not returning to this thread when they were up. I got involved with a girl and then had to help organize a workshop, including taking a bunch of beer-happy Swedes drinking on the town. It has taken up a lot of energy and time. Apologies. |
Don't sweat it. I've been busy as shit too, and have left too many posts and threads unanswered. I appreciate you getting back to this.
| quote: | | First of all, as to the discussion on the predictive capabilities of evolution under controlled circumstances, I will readily confess that I know very little of these. I am not a biologist (as Mister Opus?), and really haven't access to or overview of experiments conducted in this area. Therefore, I cannot refute what has been written on that manner in this thread. |
Again, don't sweat it. I don’t call myself a biologist by any means- I just had it as my undergrad major (and to a large extent, my grad. school focus as well). Doing 4 years of IT doesn’t put me much in the research either. However, the Evo. debate around my state has kept me up to date with all this stuff since undergrad.
| quote: | | Then to the main points: It seems to me that I have succeeded in explaining my points on falsification at last. I know that none of you agree with me, but as long as it's not because of misunderstandings, then that's fine by me. I just don't like to be viewed as an idiot for the wrong reasons. |
I really hope that's not what you believe I or anyone else here in the so-called "evo camp" thinks of you. Quite the opposite, in fact. Discussing your viewpoint has been pretty refreshing and very interesting to me.
I kinda tend to think that as a whole, we're somewhat talking in different directions or "different languages" as some may say, rather than disagreeing on the same points laid out in front of both of us.
| quote: | | As to the actual topic of the thread, it seems to me that we all agree that the stickers may be right, given specifics interpretations of the words, but that they shouldn't be put on the books, as that would be ridiculous, considering how other textbooks are used in schools. |
Well again, the wide body of paleontological, comparative and developmental biology, genetics, etc. tend to give it a great deal of weight, quite enough to call it a theory by today’s science standards (and not so much the strict early Popperlian standard you are adhering to). We’re just looking for the best explanation to explain natural phenomena, supported by a wide body of evidence. Evolution clearly fits the bill.
I think it would be a good time now to maybe compare and contrast different “theories” and see exactly what kind of differences we are discussing here. As I’ve stated before, my knowledge on astronomy and physics is limited, but I’d like to at least attempt to tackle the theory of gravity. How is this theory, in your mind, given more weight (no pun intended) than the theory of evolution? In evolutionary theory, for example, we have a known mechanism that can be tested, retested, falsified, and observed. For gravity, I may be wrong but we still do not have a very good understanding of the nature of gravity or how it works at all. In fact, do we even have a known mechanism for gravity? Furthermore, we have no understanding as to why gravity exists, in contrast to evolution (survival).
Can we test the properties of gravity? Of course – first Newton showed us, but it didn’t fit all models very well, like mercury’s orbit wasn’t it? So Einstein came along with relativity which explained things on the cosmic scale in much greater detail and accuracy. That’s certainly all well and good, yet we still know next to nothing about the mechanism behind this phenomenon.
Now I’m a bit absent on the discussion of Popper and scientific philosophy as a whole, but it seems to me that this might be one area that was a bit absent in Popperlian philosophy, and perhaps a rationale as to why his strict falsification interpretation of “theory” needed a bit of refinement. I realize I may be talking a bit out of my ass here, but again it seems to me that there had to be more than just discussing a wide body of evidence and filtering it down to a very narrow hole of falsification via strength of future predictions (which as I showed earlier, Popper himself agreed evolution’s “retrodictions” met this criteria regardless).
Can we make predictions based on these known properties of gravity, even when we have no known mechanism? Of course, and I don’t deny this at all. But again, does this necessarily give it more “strength” because we can make a certain kind of future prediction, as opposed to an evolutionary “retrodiction”? I’m not sure of that one, and again without talking too far out my ass, maybe this is what Popper saw as well. Because if we think about it, how far removed is a retrodiction from a prediction? What really is the difference from a scientific standpoint? We see some bones in a given sedimentary layer, we see some other bones and skulls in a different sedimentary layer that fits the phylogenic tree quite well – what should we take away from saying a prediction/retrodiction is made that bones in the middle layer between the two findings will likely demonstrate a verifiable transitional stage between the two? If this future finding has not occurred yet, how then can we really substantiate a difference between this future prediction and, say, the amount of gamma radiation that should theoretically be emitted from a pulsar? Or how about a prediction of movement of a particular galaxy?
And now that I think about it a bit, aren’t we really discussing retrodictions in astronomy this way, considering we are discussing past events that we are just now able to observe since they came to our planet? What, then, is the difference?
(And just for an added humorous bonus, here’s a group that’s giving an alternative theory to gravity, the Theory of Intelligent Grappling:
http://groups.google.com/groups?sel...40yasure&rnum=1)
| quote: | Then some further elaboration to clear up some minor misunderstandings/non-understandings:
I don't understand why you can say that "differing mutations, ... climate" are extraneous variables? I thought that evolution by natural selection would need to *include* those to predict anything? It's connected to my question from earlier as to what *exactly* is meant by evolution. Not a religious question, but simply a wish to have listed exactly those mechanisms that evolution is composed of? |
The mechanism is composed of 2 main parts - mutation and natural selection (well, actually 3 if you want to throw in isolationism). I'm not exactly sure how one could even attempt to include such variables like climate, predation, etc. in a mathematical probability of a given outcome occurring here. That would be like attempting to predict when, how, and at what strength a tornado comes down out of the sky, as well as exactly how much damage financially it will cause. How could one include such variables?
Well in the field, this is next to impossible, which is my point involving the known mechanism of evolution. That does not mean, however, that these variables are not useful in our understanding of the fossil record. Quite the opposite, in fact. Geological events, catastrophic or even on a lesser degree, can help us understand a great deal about the environmental pressures on a given lineage and where it may or may not branch. But can we utilize these variables precisely and give a precise measurement of an expected outcome? Well, within a given reasonable range, yes that’s exactly what we have. Again, here’s the evidence of those predicted outcomes with statistical support here:
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/comdesc/phylo.html
Is it as precise as knowing the velocity of an asteroid shooting from the asteroid belt and where exactly that asteroid will be at time “x”? Of course not, but we do have a pretty consistent result from our “retrodictions”.
However, as I mentioned earlier, these variables are controlled in a lab setting, and we can predict with fairly reasonable accuracy the outcome of, say, a bacterial culture evolving over a given period of time. But then again, it’s probably no wonder that we’re dealing with such a small scale of evolution in the lab, such as bacterial cultures, basic and complex protein structures, and so on – we can control such extraneous factors much easier on this minute scale and directly observe the basic evolutionary mechanism take place. And yes, these are actual predictions, not “retrodictions”.
I hope I’m being more clear here. I don’t mind discussing further if needed (if I can).
| quote: | | I hope I haven't come off as trying to argue from authority. It is true that Popper changed his philosophy late in life. As far as I have understood, it happened something like this: Popper proposes falsifiability early in the 20th century, as a demarcation theory - implicitly defining how science *should* evolve. In the 60s Thomas Kuhn comes along with a quite different hypothesis on how science *does* evolve. In the time up to the point where this happened, Popper's philosophy had come to be regarded as a descriptive hypothesis. When Kuhn's thoughts came to be known, the old descriptive theory was subjected to a lot of pressure, because it clearly didn't match what was observed in real life. For some reason Popper had lost his marbles by then, or had simply fallen in love with the idea of being the one describing scientific progress, and he never emphasized that his ideas was meant be prescriptive rather than descriptive. Rather he adopted his philosophy into a descriptive hypothesis. History has other examples of great philosophers (e.g. Wittgenstein and Russel) who changed their views into something else later in life, but where the general consensus is that their earlier work was the most interesting. I agree with the early Popper ideas, and not the later ones. And yes I am aware that his idea cannot be falsified - very little philosophy can be falsified as it rarely deals with predicitions. |
I’ll take your word on this. As I mentioned, my scientific philosophy is a bit rusty. I think I’m also a bit guilty of argument from authority by referring to Popper’s recantation without further description. I guess I just thought that considering this is the father of this falsification standard, it would seemingly logically follow that if he understood that evolutionary theory fits within these boundaries, that should be acceptable for anyone else.
But again my knowledge on Popper and scientific history is limited, so this is an area that I would have to study a bit more on to comment further.
| quote: | | Well, creating horoscopes and presenting them to people of course? |
Ah yes, of course!
| quote: | | Well, my comment should be read as two: The first part ending with "Furthermore, what does "theoretical" explanation means?" was solely criticism of the "science" definition. The rest was aimed at the "theory" definition. I didn't propose astrology as a candidate for being a "theory". |
Gotcha.
| quote: | | I hope that is because of the misunderstanding I tried to clear up above: I tried to show how each of the definitions were fuzzy to the point of uselessnes. Your elaboration in this piece refers to common sense and reason, which to me is fuzzy concepts as well. |
I do follow your reasoning here, but I must respectfully disagree with you in general on the strength of the definition itself. All theories are tentative, even the most sound and well-accepted theories. That is the very nature of science. Furthermore, all theories are tested and utilized over and over – and the more a theory is tested and confirmed, well naturally the more strength it will have. Finally, the more the tenets of the theory can be falsified, the stronger that theory becomes. I think I understand your disagreement with this modernized definition of “theory”, and I do concede your point as to the relative line that’s drawn on when an idea is effectively labeled as a “theory”. However I think that the simple point that evolution has been tested, retested, and falsified (retrodictions in the paleontological realm, predictions in the lab) a gazillion times should give it ample strength to give a proper label of being a “theory”, esp. in comparison to a great many other theories out there in the scientific field. It is the reason why most scientists, and almost ALL biologists regard evolutionary theory to be one of the most sound theories around (if you excuse my minor appeal to authority here).
| quote: | | Well, if you are rejected at the door to a nightclub for not wearing a blue tie on "blue tie"-night and so is a filthy drooling crackhead, it doesn't mean that you have been thrown in with him. You are simply both excluded from the group of clubbing people that night. Hope you get the analogy - my agenda is not to be detrimental to evolution, I just want to have science defined clearly in a manner so that I can agree with the consequences of that definition. |
I’m beginning to think we’re going to have to agree to disagree on this one, and it further doesn’t help when my knowledge in scientific philosophers is limited. But perhaps not. We’ll see.
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Whence September dusk grows crisper still,
with leaves all crimson conquered,
I yearn to shout,
and dance about,
and stick pickles in my honker...
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