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Capitalizt
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2005
Location: USA

capitalism = free markets and non-intervention. Anything outside of that qualifies as socialistic in nature. How is that for you pk?

Man..I love how the traditional roles in this debate have changed over the past year.. Isn't it amazing that the evil fatcat-loving corporate apologist capitalist pigs like me are AGAINST bailouts...that we want to protect taxpayers and let failed companies go down and not to prop them up, while on the other hand the traditionally compassionate, anti-corporate, pro union, pro "little guy" leftist position is to support raping the middle class to pay for endless amounts of corporate welfare?

We live in interesting times indeed.

Old Post Apr-15-2009 04:47  United States
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pkcRAISTLIN
arbiter's chief minion



Registered: Jul 2002
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
capitalism = free markets and non-intervention. Anything outside of that qualifies as socialistic in nature. How is that for you pk?


not even close im afraid.

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
Man..I love how the traditional roles in this debate have changed over the past year.. Isn't it amazing that the evil fatcat-loving corporate apologist capitalist pigs like me are AGAINST bailouts...that we want to protect taxpayers and let failed companies go down and not to prop them up, while on the other hand the traditionally compassionate, anti-corporate, pro union, pro "little guy" leftist position is to support raping the middle class to pay for endless amounts of corporate welfare?

We live in interesting times indeed.


its because those of us who aren't shackled to an ideology feel different situations require different solutions. no self-respecting economist was against the TARP and that says it all as far as im concerned. paulson and bernanke are free marketeers, and even they had to swallow the bitter pill. its easy holding on for dear life to an idea when you don't really have to apply it, ever.


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Old Post Apr-15-2009 04:55  Australia
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Capitalizt
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2005
Location: USA

Remember my thesis from the other thread pk..Within 5 years the dollar (and all paper currencies) are going to crash as countries are forced to devalue their money because of what they are doing today. Massive global inflation is coming as a result of the Bernanke/Paulson policies and things are going to be pretty bad, but if the sh!t hasn't completely hit the fan and we still transatlantic internet access, I shall be willing to accept your concession that I was right.

Old Post Apr-15-2009 05:03  United States
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pkcRAISTLIN
arbiter's chief minion



Registered: Jul 2002
Location:

Man, you've made so many fallacious predictions lately its damned hard to keep up. If not in 5, you'll be blaming it in 10 or 15 years or the next time you think inflation is out of control. No matter the actual cause, you'll pin it on the TARP and other government interventions even if it has nothing to do with them. But don’t you worry, ill be here in 5/10/15 years wearing my "not surprised" face when you go on your latest rant.


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Old Post Apr-15-2009 05:23  Australia
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Capitalizt
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2005
Location: USA

5 years pk. My predictions haven't changed. With the amount of money printed/spent/borrowed over the past year, competitive currency devaluation is inevitable. There is simply no way for countries to remain solvent at the rate we've been going. We can't pay down these massive debts with a strong/stable currency. Our only option is to print new paper to pay off the old debt. More supply = less value per unit..and since all commodities are priced in paper, they should soar. I expect oil and gas to at least double and gold/silver to triple within 5 years as people rush into them for protection. Other commodities (food, lumber, etc) should follow suit..meaning much higher prices for everything we buy.

According to www.Kitco.com: Gold is at $889.30 and silver is at $12.68
According to www.Bloomberg.com: Nymex Crude Future 49.37
NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu) Nymex Henry Hub Future 3.68
GSCI Commodity-Index, GSG is at $25.60: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qu...ymb=gsg&x=0&y=0

Paper money down, commodities way up...at least a double within 5 years. I'm on the record with predictions now.

Last edited by Capitalizt on Apr-15-2009 at 07:51

Old Post Apr-15-2009 06:24  United States
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pkcRAISTLIN
arbiter's chief minion



Registered: Jul 2002
Location:

like occrider pointed out: you pick and choose which pieces of economic data you pay attention to, while ignoring anything else. I don’t expect that fact to change. So it'll be more 'ho hum' from me next time you're beating your chest and crying about the sky falling.


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Old Post Apr-15-2009 06:25  Australia
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Capitalizt
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2005
Location: USA

I'm not crying about the sky falling pk..just trying to give fair warning. We are on an unsustainable path. Inflation may be the least of our worries now, but it's baked into the cake for the future. I hope you take steps to prepare.




($11.2 trillion..off the chart, lol)

Old Post Apr-15-2009 06:49  United States
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pkcRAISTLIN
arbiter's chief minion



Registered: Jul 2002
Location:

i invest in property, i fear not the inflation

inflation could well be the inevitable outcome of present government action, but the point is that there was no alternative.

quote:

We are on an unsustainable path.


who is saying otherwise? everyone knows that. what we're talking about is specific measures enacted to combat specific problems. nobody is projecting any more multi billion dollar bailouts/stimulus packages.

current inflation: 0.24% http://inflationdata.com/inflation/...ntInflation.asp

im sure policy will change in the future to combat inflation. these guys aren't doing all this for fun you know

quote:

US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke says the latest figures on US housing and consumer spending suggest a rapid contraction in the economy could be easing.

"Recently we have seen tentative signs that the sharp decline in economic activity may be slowing, for example, in data on home sales, homebuilding and consumer spending, including sales of new motor vehicles," Bernanke said in remarks at Morehouse College.

Some recent reports have suggested a moderating of the economy's downturn but data Tuesday was less encouraging, with the Commerce Department reporting retail sales fell 1.1% in March where economists had foreseen a 0.3% rise.

The Fed has cut interest rates effectively to zero and has created a broad range of lending facilities to ensure that banks can remain above water despite massive losses from mortgages and other consumer loans.

Bernanke said the US central bank will definitely reverse its monetary policy at some stage to prevent inflation.

The Fed will "make sure we do raise rates at an appropriate time and make sure we don't leave rates too low for too long, because it can have adverse effects, at least on inflation," Bernanke said in response to questions.

Likewise, said some of the Fed's programmes aimed at boosting lending may one day have to be removed in order to prevent the stimulus from building into an outright threat of inflation.

"We have a number of effective tools that will allow us to drain excess liquidity and begin to raise rates at the appropriate time," Bernanke said. "That said, unwinding or scaling down some of our special lending programmes will almost certainly have to be part of our strategy for removing policy stimulus once the recovery is under way."

In the meantime, Bernanke said the Fed was exploring an expansion of the types of credit made available through its programme to restart securitisation markets, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility, or TALF.

Bernanke did not specify what areas were under consideration, but authorities have said the programme may expand to include commercial mortgage-backed securities and older securities, rather than only recently issued ones.

Response to TALF so far has been lukewarm. While the central bank had allotted $200 billion in loans, only about $US6.4 billion in deals have emerged in two auctions thus far.

Bernanke soothes

Bernanke took pains to justify actions taken to save insurance giant American International Group , which has been embroiled in a controversy over lavish bonuses paid after the firm had already received $US180 billion in taxpayer aid.

He argued that the firm's collapse would have compromised the entire global financial system.

Nonetheless, he argued that direct support to financial institutions and loans to investors would not compromise the taxpayer, or lead to the threat of inflation.

"I can assure you that monetary policy-makers are fully committed to acting as needed to withdraw on a timely basis the extraordinary support now being provided to the economy, and we are confident in our ability to do so," Bernanke said.

He also said the US dollar remains the main currency of reserve holding and international transactions.

"The dollar remains the dominant currency in terms of reserve holdings and in terms of international transactions. That situation has not changed and I really don't see any prospects of it changing in the foreseeable future," Bernanke said in response to a question.

"But it is important for us to make sure that the dollar stays strong and the best way to make the dollar strong is to take policy actions that will allow the US economy to have a strong recovery."


http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/ber...-easing-2645170


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Old Post Apr-15-2009 07:04  Australia
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Capitalizt
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2005
Location: USA

I don't think there's any way to overstate what's already been done. The US alone has already implemented more than $12.8 Trillion in stimulus. Even if we're completely done with bailouts, I don't think that amount of stimulus can be unwound in a reasonable amount of time to prevent inflation. I'm rootin for Bernanke though. Hopefully he will have the balls to choke off the cocaine supply before the party gets out of control.

Old Post Apr-15-2009 07:47  United States
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Lebezniatnikov
Stupidity Annoys Me



Registered: Feb 2004
Location: DC

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
I'm not crying about the sky falling pk..just trying to give fair warning. We are on an unsustainable path. Inflation may be the least of our worries now, but it's baked into the cake for the future. I hope you take steps to prepare.




Ignore the unemployment line for now, since I'm sure you think that's "cosmic inequality" or whatever the hell you were talking about earlier.



GDP growth seems to track money reserves pretty well... ooooooh inflation!


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Old Post Apr-15-2009 11:03  United Nations
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Lebezniatnikov
Stupidity Annoys Me



Registered: Feb 2004
Location: DC

quote:
Originally posted by jerZ07002
Thank you for pointing those out. you certainly raise real issues for the extremely poor. And, it is important that your clarified that you meant people in extreme poverty can't climb the ladder (i agree that it is much more difficult for them than it is for a working class kids, of which I was one).


I think I see what you mean now as well when you talk about personal choices trumping the structural nature of some of these, but I would still argue that even in matters of "personal choice" the deck is stacked in favor of a particular outcome.

quote:
I get the structural aspect of this argument, but there really isn't a way to avoid this other than direct government funding. A private enterprise is not going to lend money to an un-creditworthy borrower just to satisfy a social goal.


Unfortunately, this is true in the US, but in the developing world we've discovered ways to circumvent the role of government in this equation.
http://www.microfinancegateway.org/...le/detail/25590



quote:
i read a good article on this. Unlike some of the other arguments, this is much less structural than a consequence of poor choices by people utilizing these services.


I agree that this is a result of poor choices in some segments of society, but you have to take into account that 22 million Americans don't even have a bank account. Pawn Shops and places where you can trade in car titles for loans become the only way of securing funds in times of economic shock - with no savings and no means of securing a loan, people can be forced into bad financial decisions.

Another thing that plays into this is another trap altogether - The Institutional Knowledge Trap - when a family is poor chances are that education is low and the resources available (internet, books, etc.) to learn about opportunities are scarce. The social network is largely in the same boat, so this is a reason why we see poor people not even knowing about the opportunities that are available to them or how to secure them (such as Medicare, microfinance loans, etc.). Their lack of knowledge becomes a trap. This is why community organizers often focus on community education programs.


quote:
i agree in concept, but i would like to see support with solid numbers. i'm not asking you to provide it, i'm just saying that i'm uncertain of the extent to which this goes on and whether it could actually be a structural element holding down a large portion of the population. It very well could be a real part of the rural culture that i'm unfamiliar with.


This is indeed more common in the agricultural sector, where laws governing child labor and mandatory schooling aren't adhered to as closely. It's very common in the Midwest to hold back students in Middle School and High School from attending class in order to help out at home with harvests. Eventually many of these students drop out - some rural public school districts have much higher drop-out rates than the most "ghetto" neighborhoods in urban centers.

That said, I watched an interesting independent film this weekend about immigrant families in the Bronx and their propensity to have children forgo education in order to help earn enough money to put food on the table, so I assume it does happen.

quote:
i dispute that this is a structural issue. this is simply poor personal choices that have economic consequences.


This is a bigger issue in the developing world, but it isn't really correct to view it as a poor personal choice on behalf of the parents. They're viewing it in a coldly practical way - the more children, the better off they will be in the future. That's more children able to contribute to household income in the near future, and a higher likelihood that someone will be able to take care of them when they can no longer work. It's like blindly rolling a dice 12 times to ensure that you roll at least one 6. The unintended economic consequence of course is that by bearing more children into poverty who will likely go on to make the same fertility choices, you're substantially increasing the number of people in poverty.


quote:
what's the trap? Did you mean to say that historically the poor have been voiceless? If so, I see this as a consequence of personal choices not to mobilize.


Yes, I didn't phrase this in terms of a trap. Collective action is a problem, because most people are more concerned with securing food and shelter than taking steps that are available to them through collective action. It's mostly a time and energy concern, though lack of institutional knowledge is also key.



quote:
again, this is only a structural issue if you disregard the fact that it is entirely dictated by personal choices. With other issues, like the health care trap, families aren't consciously decided to forgo health care.


I can't remember the economist who writes about it, but this is more a case of economic coercion, where economic choices are dictated by circumstances. If you had a choice between working as a janitor for 5.15/hour or joining an organized crime group where your food and shelter for your entire family was covered, which would you choose? If we view opportunity cost as important, the only "smart" economic decision is to become a criminal. Much higher returns. And gangs are about the only groups in most poor communities to collectively share risks in an effective manner.


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Old Post Apr-15-2009 11:23  United Nations
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Lebezniatnikov
Stupidity Annoys Me



Registered: Feb 2004
Location: DC

quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
I'm going to recommend a book to you krypt (and you too lebez!) It is highly relevant to this discussion and addresses the point of view both of you seem to have:

http://www.amazon.com/Quest-Cosmic-...l/dp/0684864622

I know Sowell has become a shill for the neocons in recent years..but this is an older book of his and he really nails this issue down in my opinion. You two seem to favor the idea of "social" (or "cosmic") justice, rather than traditional justice. He goes to great lengths in this book to point out the differences between the two ideas..and costs and risks of adopting the cosmic justice philosophy. I highly recommend you check it out from your local library when you find time. Here are a few excerpts from his own summary.


[/b]

[/b]


No thank you. The guy doesn't even understand John Rawls' Theory of Justice (hint: Rawls talks about equality of opportunity, not equality of the cosmos or whatever).

I could recommend you his book, but I know you won't read it, so here's a short article summary of Rawls' theoretical underpinnings by Martha Nussbaum (a fantastic philosopher in her own right):
http://chronicle.com/free/v47/i45/45b00701.htm


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Old Post Apr-15-2009 11:38  United Nations
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