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| quote: | Originally posted by Znack
I admit, probability is an ambiguous word in this context, but if that is where the misunderstanding lies, everything else is then resolved? |
ok, the first of all we need to define probability. everything ambiguous can be re-defined if enough detail is put into the language.
the most probable expectation, is that the easiest definition will suffice. this is highly probable, because most people don't care a great detail about the likeliness of them being wrong.
Most people consider themselves correct, because they are 'probably' never wrong.
Something that is probable to happen, means it will most likely not happen. We often see this in history. The probability that a great man, like Jesus, or like the Guy you mentioned that no one "took seriously"
is going to come along and be able to change the world is
Very likely. Millions of people have existed for quite some time...A lot of people have come and gone in 2000 years...
but that change never happens. Because if these guys ever get to the top, they get the chop. Caeser, J.F.Kennedy, Jesus** , (Hitler?)
** just because he existed, doesnt probably make him the son of god.
Something that is probable in your head, isn't probable in the real world.
Probability is like taking a sheet of paper and eliminating the world
and theres the problem. no one knows the conditions of what is probable...unless you can predict the future.
one way of doing this is analyzing structure of behavior.
| quote: | Originally posted by Znack
And now you are calculating in low statistical odds again. Suddenly, you pull everything else back, and says 51% probability is enough to believe.
Again again again: no. Fact that something is a bit more likely than the opposite is not a reason to believe something, Belief is to believe it's true, not that it's likely.
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belief is the belief that something is probably going to happen.
this comes from the confidence that the analysis of a situation has gone correctly, and with almost only 5% error margin, this can be constitutionalized into a mfk-ing percentage.
probability happens when something is more probable to happen then not. believing something is probable only requires 51%, the break even point.
Last edited by Jake Sevendy on May-12-2011 at 03:57
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