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Most of the names thrown out there so far are highly unlikely. Obama won't run. He won't even have completed one term in the US Senate... any Republican will be able to pull the experience card on him, and in past elections we've seen that work very well. And if he loses after declaring in 08, he'll be done. He'll wait til '12, more likely '16 before becoming a legitimate candidate. If he runs (he says he has no intention of doing so).
Al Gore won't run. If he was interested, he would have run in 04.
Jeb Bush has said he will never run. And he wouldn't get past the primaries anyway, when Republicans finally have a non-Bush choice. I'm not so sure G. W. would have beaten McCain this time around if it had come to a primary.
Hilary might run, but doesn't stand a chance of getting past the primary. Moderate Democrats -- who are the majority of Dems in New Hampshire and Iowa -- viscerally hate her (and I've never understood why).
Evan Bayh (Sen. - Ind.) is realistic, as is Vilsack (Gov - Iowa). If I had to bet, I'd say the Democratic nominee will be one of those two guys. Richardson (Gov - NM) has an outside shot too I suppose, but I don't see it happening.
The Republicans will probably run Rick Santorum (Sen - PA). He's a Bush-clone and very outspoken. Mitt Romney (Gov - Mass) would stand a chance... but he would lose his own state, and I don't think a President has ever won with losing his own state. Plus, coming from Massachusetts, the Southern vote may not come out in the force it did with Bushy.
Richard Lugar (Sen - Ind.) could have been a possibility, but he's getting kind of old.
Oh, and put away this Arnold nonsense. He could never be President. Even Madelaine Albright, who stood 4th in line of succession under Clinton would not have been allowed to become President due to the fact that she was an American citizen born in France.
Besides, if the law were changed, Jennifer Granholm (Gov - Mich) would become eligible, and she's probably the most likely candidate for first woman President we've ever seen (if only she hadn't been born in Canada). She'd make a much better candidate than Arnold. Only addicts of bad movies and bodybuilders would seriously think Arnold would make a good President.
And that hardly describes the Soccer Moms who decide every election.
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In any event, I don't think this country will elect another Bush into office. It's just becoming too controversial these days. I could be wrong though.
