ITT: jerZ07002 being wrong.



Art Laffer = jerZ07002

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Originally posted by Realist ITT: jerZ07002 being wrong. Art Laffer = jerZ07002

it's very possible i am wrong. I just express my opinions; Sometimes they are good and other times they are bad. Since i'm at work i can't watch the video. If you don't mind, in a sentence, what was it about?

EDIT: i caught a small portion of laffer's comments. Where did i ever say the economy was in great health? In fact, I said that none of my comments should be construed as a vote of confidence in the economy. I clearly state that i think things are pretty bad. See my comments from the last post on page 4:

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I think people are overreacting (sure the situation is bad, although i'm not sure it warrants this huge sell off).

Last edited by jerZ07002 on Oct-10-2008 at 15:54

LOL, I want to see Art Laffer's response now to the liquidity freeze.

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Originally posted by jerZ07002 I think roubini is a just a pessimist. everytime he opens his mouth it's nothing but negativity. I think i remember him calling for a depression two years ago. In the bold portion he agress that assets are way oversold. While this is easy to say (and harder to accomplish) all that is really necessary is for rational behavior to resume. I tend not to have much faith in other human beings, but for some reason i don't think humans will throw themselves into a depression because of a desire to persist with irrational behavior.

Roubini is more than just a pessimist. He's a pessimist who has been as right about this situation as anyone else out there. He is gloom and doom, and a bit overly so for me, but the man has earned his stars for what he predicted.

Let's buy the entire country for pennies on the dollar and rename it Lolland.

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Originally posted by Realist ITT: jerZ07002 being wrong. Art Laffer = jerZ07002

Wow thats pretty amazing, he was right on all points.

Here is his view on bailout:

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Originally posted by Shakka Roubini is more than just a pessimist. He's a pessimist who has been as right about this situation as anyone else out there. He is gloom and doom, and a bit overly so for me, but the man has earned his stars for what he predicted.

Yea I tend to agree. I've had wayyyy too many people who have made bank on this entire crisis with the positions that they've taken tell me that "we're all fucked." And by make bank I mean they did well not only on their personal accounts but along with their desks as well making their companies hundreds of millions of dollars in no time at all. To paraphrase them, it doesn't matter that they made their companies millions or themselves 50k in a few weeks time, in the long run it's not going to matter because the financial system as they know it has fundamentally changed and while they know they'll have a job in the immediate near future, that might not be likely come february or march.

But look that's merely anecdotal, hearsay evidence and I certainly don't expect people to believe me based upon what I've heard from "friends". And truth be told I don't WANT people to believe me. If this were actually a site that might influence the markets (I'm pretty sure the broader public and institutional investors are not tranceaddicts ... at least i hope) I sure as fuck wouldn't be saying any of this shit because that will simply fuel the panic which is causing all of this shit.

However, as I alluded to in an earlier post, I think the clearest barometer of how fucked we might be is:

#1 How libor, euribor, and the commercial paper market in general are doing

#2 How involved the central banks are and now how involved the treasury department is

These are the three top headlines I've pulled off of bloomy right now:

•G-7 Pledges to Take `All Necessary Steps' to Stem Global Financial Crisis
•Paulson Says Treasury to Buy Equity in Financial Firms `As Soon as We Can'
•Fannie, Freddie Ordered to Buy $40 Billion of Troubled Mortgages a Month

Shit is winding down and the government is pulling out all the stops to avert unmitigated disaster. You can almost smell the fear and desperation of the Treasury and the Fed.

I REALLY think that if the G7 meeting this weekend doesn't come out with a WIDE sweeping proposal that reassures the markets, and not just platitudes of "we'll do whatever it takes" than we're essentially done. There is complete and utter panic now. I'm not a psychologist but one doesn't go from utterly panicked to not panicked simply because prices decrease a few more bucks. At this point there needs to be an uber strong indication of SOMETHING ... or as one of my friend's said, "What the gov't needs to do is something they will never do, and that is expand the public debt (on the order of oh, say, 5 trillion) and start handing out it to companies as freebies (if they do it in exchange for ownership, that would be communism). Or literally fly helicopters over the cities and drop money, but that's ludicrous so I say do the former." Ok perhaps that's not the best course to follow, but perhaps you get the picture.

In all seriousness, I think this weekend will dictate the future of finance and the world as we know it. Unlike TARP, the G7 needs to be pro-active rather than reactive.

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Retro ...

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Originally posted by occrider Shit is winding down and the government is pulling out all the stops to avert unmitigated disaster. You can almost smell the fear and desperation of the Treasury and the Fed.

Seriously--speaking of smelling the fear--when the VIX hit 77 I halfway expected to look out the window and see a mushroom cloud. Sheer unmitigated panic.

If the G7 can find a way to guarantee interbank lending, we might get a huge sigh of relief...I'm just not sure how they would go about doing that.

The World Financial Crisis in Pictures

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Originally posted by occrider Yea I tend to agree. I've had wayyyy too many people who have made bank on this entire crisis with the positions that they've taken tell me that "we're all fucked." And by make bank I mean they did well not only on their personal accounts but along with their desks as well making their companies hundreds of millions of dollars in no time at all. To paraphrase them, it doesn't matter that they made their companies millions or themselves 50k in a few weeks time, in the long run it's not going to matter because the financial system as they know it has fundamentally changed and while they know they'll have a job in the immediate near future, that might not be likely come february or march.

of course they think they are fucked. the system that they know and which has made them tons of money is going to change. they don't know what the change will be, and that would scare the shit out of anyone. however, that does not mean their opinions of the change is gospel. I think they have too much to lose and that increases fear and skews an impartial opinion.

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Originally posted by occrider I think we're heading for a severe protracted recession if not a global depression. I think we're going to see the breakdown of capitalism as we know it as more and more governments will take steps to nationalize banks. Fundamental economic theory simply does not apply in the markets anymore. I think this theory summarizes my stance as to how fucked we are and what needs to be done best (bold part is why I'm as scared as I am):

Will the new problem out of this crisis come with the name inflation?? The world financial markets might be spared out of such coordinated efforts, but at what expense? Inflation is already a problem and we're dropping interest rates dramatically.

The only other way out has to be a recession - and an overall deleveraging. I personally think that the US is already in one and have thought it was destined for one for a while now.

Up until only a few weeks ago i was dead against interest rate cuts. I believed it so much, and assumed that central banks thought the same way, that i fixed my home loan for 3 years - at the beginning of this year.

Obviously, interest rate cuts have been needed to save us from liquidity issues, but what happens when these plans succeed?? What happens to inflation?? Apparently this was the most important point facing most central banks - and it's a point that they can hide from for only so long.

It seems that this recession is unavoidable in either circumstance - but, hey, stock markets don't wait for the end of the recession before they rally. That's why I'm going to enter the market within the coming months, hoping for another 10-20% drop in the meantime

side note: since I last logged on we've had the Australian government guarantee ALL bank deposits for 3 years. interesting...

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A witty saying proves nothing.
-Voltaire