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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070919.wontario19/BNStory/ontarioelection2007/home
Poll shows Tory support waning in Ontario's 905
The fast-growing region surrounding Toronto is one of two key battlegrounds over the coming weeks
KAREN HOWLETT
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
September 19, 2007 at 5:12 AM EDT
TORONTO — Support for the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party is eroding in the vote-rich 905 region, former premier Mike Harris's political stronghold and a key battleground in the election campaign.
The Conservatives' support in the 905 suburbs, named for the area code they share, has declined five points from the 2003 election to 38 per cent, according to a poll conducted by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail and CTV.
The 905 is the fastest-growing region in Ontario and is making the transition from a suburban to a urban area. The survey suggests that the Conservative Party has not kept up with this change and has not been able to broaden its base of support under leader John Tory. It remains the party of choice for older, wealthier, less-educated men who predominantly live in rural and small-town Ontario, the survey says.
"The problems of the inner city are becoming more prevalent there," the Strategic Counsel's Tim Woolstencroft said. "It's becoming less suburban, so it's much more receptive to Liberal messaging."
He said the 905 region is one of two battlegrounds in the election. The other is Southwestern Ontario.
In the 905, the Tories won eight of the 25 ridings in 2003. They have to reclaim seats they lost to the Liberals in the region in the last election, he said, and the Liberals have to "beat back" the Green Party, whose support has climbed four points to 6 per cent.
The Strategic Counsel poll shows support for the Liberals at 49 per cent in the region, up from 47 per cent in 2003.
It was the 905 where Mr. Harris made his political breakthrough in 1995, when he swept to office on a promise to cut taxes. But the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty spent much of the past four years restoring cuts that the Conservatives had made to health care and education.
"In 1995, 905 was all about tax cuts, and in 2003, it was all about reinvesting in social services, and in 2007, health care and education still seem to be the No. 1 and No. 2 issues," said David Docherty, a professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University.
Mr. Woolstencroft said support for the Conservatives could slip across the province because Mr. Tory's unpopular proposal to bring faith-based schools into the public system is "dead on arrival" for a large majority of Ontarians. The survey shows that 71 per cent of voters oppose it, including a majority of Conservatives.
More Ontarians said Mr. Tory would make a better premier than the incumbent, Mr. McGuinty. And Mr. Tory's popularity - at 37 per cent - exceeds support for his own party, which remains virtually unchanged at 34 per cent.
The survey of 850 Ontarians was conducted from Sept. 13 to Sept. 16, and is considered accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.
The policy to extend public funding to Jewish, Muslim and other religious schools is the "big factor" holding Mr. Tory back, Mr. Woolstencroft said. It's distracting him from the issues on which he wants to campaign, including Mr. McGuinty's broken promises, he added. "It's an emotional issue. It's a religious issue. It has all the ingredients of not working for him."
The campaign, now in its second week, is revolving around two issues: funding for religious schools and Mr. McGuinty's broken promises, including the $2.6-billion annual health premium he introduced in 2004 after campaigning the year before on a pledge not to raise taxes.
A majority want a change of government because they believe the Liberals have broken too many promises, the survey shows.
Three-quarters of those polled said the Liberals have broken too many promises. Moreover, this sentiment was shared by 66 per cent of Liberal voters who indicated they could switch their support to the Tories.
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i don't see this as a minor issue at all and neither do a lot of people. personally, i think tory could've blow this election out of the water if it wasn't for this issue that has really bit him on the ass.
too bad the number 1 issues in these elections weren't about cities and transportation (public transit).
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