On a bit of a tangent...courtesy of David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff...my pick for chart(s) of the day...on Canadian housing.



Take a look at the two charts below, which benchmark resale home prices to income and rents in Canada. Both show home prices in overvalued territory (while resale home prices have slipped from record highs, they are still running at 17% YoY).
Relative to labour income, home prices are about 1.5 standard deviations above norm (data going back to 1980). The situation is even more dire when we look at resale home prices versus rental prices — this metric is over 2.5 standard deviations above the average, which is very reminiscent of what we saw in the U.S. in 2004-2006. Our statistical work implies that given current income and rent, we could see a price correction of around 15-35% if these ratios were to mean revert, which would certainly be a U.S.-style correction.

quote:

Originally posted by DigiNut I was out at lunch when the 1000-point drop happened.

Just by a fluke I was watching this in real time on my trading platform. I was so taken back I didn't even think of buying anything. I thought something was wrong with my platform or feed provider - things were just that wonky.

It literally went from -400 to -900 in 2 minutes and then choked and popped back up to -600. 300/400 point swings in a few minutes. Totally gonzo.

___________________
- rabbit.joker [funny¿rabbit] | www.rabbitjoker.com |www.ddtt.org

Dark Dirty Tech Tribal. | Hands in air (trance) and feet on the floor (house).

Just a thought that came across my mind while reading into what was going on: Is this an example of what could be a new type of terrorism? Rather than flying planes into buildings of importance, would it not be easy for a network of stock brokers to sabotage the markets? If it is so easy to type a b rather than m to cause some chaos, how about on a more sophisticated basis?

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"Silly Clubbers, Docks are for Boats"
Soundcloud

quote:

Originally posted by rulzz holding oil on what basis ? seasonal rally ?

up until yesterday, the weak US dollar, Seasonality and the supposed economic recovery. Haven't placed my next position. Looks like i may have to stop out if it gets too low. :S

we are at 74 june right now, support broke at 76.50 or so. I also don't like that july has broken 80.

http://datasuite.cmegroup.com/dataS...cted_tab=energy

I need to see some sort of bottom before i take my 3rd of 4 position. With the job market recovering as well as the manufacturing and auto industry, i don't see how oil can go so much lower. We had a fantastic job report this morning as well. Quadrupled analyst estimates or something.

As Z said, i would not recommend anyone to join this ETF venture right now. Contango is high, the bears are growling and rollovers begin next week. If the market starts to flatten and show some support, the optimum time would be past or around may 20th to join a freshly rolled over ETF. I'm just in a deep hole right now with only a shovel heh.

Last edited by Nrg2Nfinit on May-07-2010 at 14:42

quote:

Originally posted by rabbitjoker Just by a fluke I was watching this in real time on my trading platform. I was so taken back I didn't even think of buying anything. I thought something was wrong with my platform or feed provider - things were just that wonky. It literally went from -400 to -900 in 2 minutes and then choked and popped back up to -600. 300/400 point swings in a few minutes. Totally gonzo.

I watched it live too. Never once did things freefall like that in 2008!

quote:

Originally posted by Skipper I watched it live too. Never once did things freefall like that in 2008!

they did but not to that extent, there were two particular days when selling was of this very waterfallish type but not to this magnitude





i do not believe in errors in trades here, with Greece and europe debate so heated up somebody smelled shit and wanted out quickly in the open (instead of using dark pools like normal scam banks do) and quants just followed at some point (i would think they got in short under 1110 on S&P. Prolly they were fucked by Benny placing his fat finger on buy buy buy and therefore you'll indeed see few trading quants going under in next few weeks after all filings etc.
Also watch US debt skyrocket this or next month by about 150-200 billion extra on top of expectations.

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Mr Kaizen on Soundcloud

double post......

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Mr Kaizen on Soundcloud

quote:

Originally posted by rulzz quants just followed at some point

I think you are right.

Fast-trade programs hit markers and everything waterfalled at once. I thought the index owners were supposed to have controls against this - but obviously they didn't work.

Someone needs to look into the fast-traders and their machine-based transactions. For the argument they provide liquidity to the market, events like yesterday make me think that this type of trading should be investigated to ensure we don't have "machines" causing collapses on the buy side.

___________________
- rabbit.joker [funny¿rabbit] | www.rabbitjoker.com |www.ddtt.org

Dark Dirty Tech Tribal. | Hands in air (trance) and feet on the floor (house).

quote:

Originally posted by rabbitjoker I thought the index owners were supposed to have controls against this - but obviously they didn't work.

Actually, they did work, or rather, they didn't need to - the NASDAQ threshold for trading freeze is a 10% swing, and this missed it by a nose. Natural equilibrium kicked in faster than the controls could, traders started buyin' up a storm once the Dow dipped under 10k.

I suspect that ordinary panic selling and stop limits had more to do with this than automated trading platforms, but I won't pretend to have hard evidence for that.

___________________
My party schedule:
2009-02-21 - DJ Attention @ I'm So Popular
2009-06-18 - DJ Annoying @ People Need To Know Where I'll Be
2012-11-32 - DJ Insufferable ɸ Or At Least the Stalkers I Complain About
2048-06-66 - Spastic & Whocares ¶ Although I'm Actually Flattered
9999-45-81 - Tweaker Gimp ☼ I Probably Won't Even Go To This But I Have To Make Sure I Fill Up All The Available Space Here

quote:

Originally posted by DigiNut Actually, they did work, or rather, they didn't need to - the NASDAQ threshold for trading freeze is a 10% swing, and this missed it by a nose.

After Thursday I think I might set long-expiring limit orders at 25% less than previous-market-close on a number of Dow-30s in case this event happens again. Many of these stocks cracked for 2 minutes, I wish I had these orders in place, wow, profit-city USA.

___________________
- rabbit.joker [funny¿rabbit] | www.rabbitjoker.com |www.ddtt.org

Dark Dirty Tech Tribal. | Hands in air (trance) and feet on the floor (house).

quote:

Originally posted by rabbitjoker After Thursday I think I might set long-expiring limit orders at 25% less than previous-market-close on a number of Dow-30s in case this event happens again. Many of these stocks cracked for 2 minutes, I wish I had these orders in place, wow, profit-city USA.

Or put in limit orders for at-the-money, next-month options at about 10-20% of the ATM price. Somebody who was sufficiently on the ball could easily have doubled or tripled their money.

___________________
My party schedule:
2009-02-21 - DJ Attention @ I'm So Popular
2009-06-18 - DJ Annoying @ People Need To Know Where I'll Be
2012-11-32 - DJ Insufferable ɸ Or At Least the Stalkers I Complain About
2048-06-66 - Spastic & Whocares ¶ Although I'm Actually Flattered
9999-45-81 - Tweaker Gimp ☼ I Probably Won't Even Go To This But I Have To Make Sure I Fill Up All The Available Space Here