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Last year I predicted that the U.K economy would crash; It's scarier than I thought, but Carney's appointment at BoE is sure to bring youthful edge in decision making at the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street. I thought highly of King, but change is right.
The U.K will most likely enter a recession (triple dip)--I see absolutely no way out of this with inflation at these levels and purchasing power falling immensely, not to mention that dreaded bond rating downgrade looming.
| quote: | | Most obviously, the U.K.’s “recovery” remains an achingly gradual affair. The fourth quarter’s 0.1% contraction in GDP was the fifth quarterly slip recorded since the economy supposedly clawed back to post-crisis growth in late 2009–later than its peers. For the moment, analysts think the U.K. will avoid a lethal triple dip, but it will probably be the usual knife-edge escape rather than a convincing upward bound. Then there’s that triple-A credit rating. For so long, this was the U.K.’s comfort blanket, one it kept while all about it were losing theirs. However, proper deficit reduction has proven a longer, harder road than the one anticipated–which was long and hard enough. Investors are now pretty sure the U.K.’s rating is toast; it’s just a question of when it pops up. What about monetary policy? Well, judged by its inflation mandate alone, it’s been a dismal failure, with consumer prices rising ahead of the Bank of England’s 2% target every month since the end of 2009. The Bank has just modestly upped its inflation forecast, so improvement remains elusive to put it mildly. |
http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2013/02...rely-homegrown/
I've studied the charts extensively & it seems the £ will fall to 1.33 against the $. We're at 1.55 levels...It's huge!
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Last edited by Lagrangian on Feb-13-2013 at 23:56
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