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| quote: | Originally posted by Trancer-X
(7) to support United States business interests and investments in the region.
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Smoking gun?
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I'm sure you've heard that we were quite instrumental in creating their interim gov't. with (ex-CIA contact and ex-UNOCAL advisor) Hamid Karzai as it's ~interim~ Prime Minister.
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Well of course we were instrumental in creating their government and establish somebody that is aligned with our interests. It's not like we would oust the taleban and say "ok you guys take it from here." This does not in any way imply the reasons for engaging in the conflict.
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You're getting ahead of yourself now. The US tried negotiating with the Taliban for quite some time but were ultimately unsuccessful. Perhaps after unsuccessful bribes they came to wits-end and decided that bargaining was the wrong path to take after all.
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Read closely:
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"In an article entitled, "ANALYSIS; PIPELINE SURVEY; RUSSIA GOES TO MARKET," the economist, which is the most sophisticated analytical journal of the oil industry - that is, it is not intersted in molding public opinion but exists to provide insiders with accurate information - the Petroleum Economist states that:
"The Taliban promoted Afghanistan as an oil and gas transit point for exports from the Caspian to the Mideast Gulf. In 1997, Turkmenistan brokered the creation of an international consortium, CentGas, under the leadership of Unocal, which planned to build a $2bn gas line across Afghanistan. The imposition of US and, later, UN sanctions against the country and then Unocal's withdrawal put a stop to the plan.
The project envisaged a 1,270-km, 20bn cubic metres a year link from the border with Turkmenistan, along the Herat-Kandahar road, to the Pakistan border, at Quetta, ending at Mulat." (3)
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The US was not lobbying Afghanistan to construct a natural gas pipeline, the Taliban was lobbying the US to build the pipeline! And ultimately, it was the US COMPANY that withdrew from the deal ... NOT the taliban.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/230318.stm
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Of course I didn't! I saw how hard lined you were from the start with all of your pro-war rhetoric, and your pro-war signature emblazoned at the bottom of every post.
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Hard-lined?? Pro-war rhetoric? Pro-war signature emblazoned at the bottom of every post??? That constitutes your reasoning for ignoring previously aforementioned arguments? I'm afraid I can't take you very seriously from now on since you choose to attack what YOU perceive as representations of my political beliefs (when in fact they have absolutely NOTHING to do with them whatsoever) instead of attacking my actual arguments. Straw man much?
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The primary benefactors? Right now I can only see victory for the oil-barons (can you say Rockefeller's Revenge five times, fast)
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I thought we established the fact that this was a natural gas pipeline and not oil? And no, I provided credible news sources establishing victory for 3 countries. If you perceive them to be oil barons of America then I guess I'm at a loss of words.
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So how would these 3 countries benefit any more than the U.S.A.? Are they hurting for oil? Are their companies putting up all the dough for the construction? Do THEY rely on foreign oil to power their ever growing population's motorized vehicles?
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Sigh ... I thought that the bbc article made it abundantly clear that these three countries are the primary beneficiaries of the pipeline otherwise they would have MENTIONED the US as being the main beneficiary. However, since you require greater elaboration:
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AFGHANISTAN EYES A PIPELINE, BUT PROSPECTS LOOK DIM
Halima Kazem: 6/06/02
With American-led military operations diminishing in Afghanistan and foreign aid taking a long time to flow, the country is looking for ways to fuel a struggling economy. Under interim government Chairman Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan has revived an old hope. It is officially seeking to build a pipeline that would take Turkmen oil and gas to India via Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Karzai traveled to Islamabad on May 30 to meet with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Turkmen President Saparmyrat Niyazov. The three leaders agreed only to pursue financiers for the pipeline project. They could not promise to succeed where others with deeper pockets have failed. Karzai’s "pipeline of peace" would essentially reassemble the CentGas Consortium, a $2 billion project led by Houston oil giant Unocal in the mid-1990s. If it develops, it could bring in hundreds of millions of dollars to Afghanistan, which desperately needs funds for reconstruction. However, regional conditions have changed significantly since Unocal dissolved the CentGas Consortium in 1998. Beyond Afghanistan’s devastation, Pakistan’s energy needs and its relations to India have changed, making a trans-Afghanistan pipeline largely a fantasy.
For one thing, Western energy companies face many opportunities to invest their money elsewhere. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, which have somewhat more stable structures than Afghanistan, have raised millions in oil and gas investments. Competition for foreign investment is tight even with countries with stable central governments. So it may be that no multinational company has publicly shown interest in reviving Unocal’s pipeline plans because those plans would simply not pan out economically. "There is no new interest right now in the area," said Leonard Coburn, Director of the Office of Newly Independent States, Russian and Middle Eastern Affairs at the US Department of Energy. "ExxonMobil is pulling out of Turkmenistan. They didn’t find anything and they feel that they cannot operate there. Chevron Texaco has not really looked into Turkmenistan because they are pretty tied up in Pakistan and Azerbaijan,"
Although still favored by the participant countries to revive the project, Unocal Spokesperson Terry Covington says that the company does not have any plans or interest in another pipeline project through Afghanistan. She says that after the company withdrew from the CentGas consortium in 1998, they invested their capital in other parts of the world, specifically in Southeast Asia. "We can’t make any decisions based on a snapshot of a country," Covington told EurasiaNet. "There are several things we look for before we invest in a country: an internationally recognized government, peace and stability, and social [standards]."
Karzai should be familiar with Unocal; he worked as a consultant to the company in the ‘90s. Over the past six months, the charismatic Karzai has been traveling to neighboring countries trying to rally support for the pipeline. In Niyazov and Musharraf, he has found two heads of state who say they are in favor of the pipeline project. But Coburn says that any company that goes into Afghanistan needs more reassurance and has to know that the right type of security will be provided to safeguard their investment. Afghanistan, which is beginning a grand legislative council called a Loya Jirga on June 10, still has no established government. When the Loya Jirga appoints a two-year transitional government, the country will still have to establish and figure out corporate and securities law. "From an emerging markets point of view, Afghanistan has a long ways to travel," said Peter Bassett, Investment Manager for Brunswick Capital Management, a global investment firm based in London.
Moreover, demand for trans-Afghan gas would probably only come from India – itself a tough market to gauge. Pakistan has developed enough internal gas reserves to remain self-sufficient until 2025, said Julian Lee, Senior Analyst for the Centre of Global Energy Studies in London. Pakistan’s reliance on imported oil could boost the trans-Afghanistan pipeline, but underlying power struggles between Pakistan and Afghanistan are still a major barrier for a pipeline partnership. "Historically Pakistan has always meddled in Afghanistan’s affairs and has never wanted to give Afghanistan access to its waters. It’s a way of keeping Afghanistan dependent on Pakistan," said Farhad Ahad, a member of the Institute for Afghan Studies. If Pakistan were to commit to a trans-Afghanistan pipeline, some suggest, it would be to placate the United States by avoiding a pipeline relationship with Iran. But David Goldwyn, Former United States Assistant Secretary of Energy for International Affairs, calls the chances of that happening anytime soon very slim.
That leaves India as a customer. But India remains reluctant to depend on Pakistan, its traditional rival, which would have no incentive to ensure smooth delivery through its portion of the pipeline. [See related EurasiaNet story]. "From India’s side the question is ‘How do insure the security of this project?" said Jyoti Sagar, founder of Sagar and Associates, a New Delhi law firm specializing in India’s energy sector. Indian oil demand is expected to grow 6-6.5 percent annually from 2001. Natural gas demand will surge with 7.5 million metric tons of LNG per year to be imported by 2005. This combined position will make India one of the world’s largest consumers of oil and gas. But Sagar says India is looking to neighboring Bangladesh and Myanmar for cheap natural gas imports.
In the end, Afghanistan’s pipeline dreams may hinge on simple economics. But even if the political situations in the region could be worked out, many analysts say the pipeline’s rate of return would not be very high. "A large multinational company would get maybe a 15 to 20 percent return. This is not much compared to the geo-political risk involved," said Hurst Groves, Director of Columbia University’s Center for Energy Studies.
Oil analysts uniformly deem a trans-Afghanistan pipeline largely out of reach for now. "Until either Pakistan requires imported gas, or Pakistan and India trust each other sufficiently to allow India to source gas imports via its neighbor," says Lee, Afghanistan will need to find another means of restoring its tattered economy.
http://www.eurasianet.org/departmen...eav060602.shtml
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We now break for Occrider's regularly scheduled hardline, pro-war rhetoric: War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good War is good
Ok, now that I have that out of my system:
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I'm sure we have someone else that could take their place. We certainly have the need...
"Mr. Chairman, today America's dwindling oil reserves provide less than half of the oil our economy uses. This leaves us heavily dependent on the Middle Eastern regimes that control the vast majority of the world's known oil reserves. Many of these regimes are either actively hostile to the United States, as is the case with Iran, Iraq, and Lybia, or unsteady, autocratic regimes beholden to Islamic fundamentalists like Saudi Arabia."
"Today, therefore, 52 percent of the oil we use in America is imported from foreign sources. Our most recent EIA forecast suggests, as again was acknowledged in some of the opening statements, that our dependence could grow to 62 percent by the year 2020."
http://commdocs.house.gov/committee...hfa80291_0f.htm
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Ok, you've established that we NEED oil. What this has to do with a natural gas pipeline that no american company really wants to touch and is being managed by a middle east consortium I really have no idea.
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Meanwhile, while all these other countries are benefiting from the pipeline deal, the US has now pledged to spend another billion dollars to rebuild afghanistan???
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Wouldn't that tie in with the needed stabilization of that region. I hope you realize that you appear to be talking in circles on this.
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Missing the point! We're spending BILLIONS in order to stabilize a region for a pipeline deal who's costs are in the MILLIONS??? Why not GO AROUND Afghanistan? Why not get our NATURAL GAS somewhere else??? You're telling me that we go to war and spend billions so we don't have to extend a NATURAL GAS pipeline a few hundred miles???
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Cheaper gas due to not having to rely on OPEC as well as not having to fund a terrorist state's economy. That doesn't make sense to you?
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Afghanistan was the cure for OPEC? I was never aware it was a country so abundant in oil! Just think, all this trouble with the middle east and the solution all along was little ol afghanistan. What's the deal with this NATURAL GAS pipeline that's being built?
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Ah, lift the blinders shall we? Your article:
My article:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2986118.stm
"A tender to sell 10 million barrels of Iraqi oil was awarded on Thursday to six companies, including ChevronTexaco of the US.
News that Iraqi supplies had finally resumed helped push oil prices lower in New York, with crude futures closing down 85 cents at $31.51.
Before the war, Iraq shipped about 1.7 million barrels a day, roughly 4% of world exports."
Okay, thanks?
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Okay I agree with you on something, CNN is crap.
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I said CNN's search tool was crap . I actually look on CNN with a rather positive light. If you don't want such a US focus on the news, switch to CNN International. It provides much better coverage of world events. I think it's crap to resort to one news network in general however.
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I seriously think that you are decieving yourself by thinking that we are in the Middle East for humanitarian reasons.
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Of course we're not in the middle east for humanitarian reasons. Whoever said that??? I think you have an overly simplistic view of attitudes and opinions of those in this forum. If you would like clarification or see where we stand on issues please ask rather than jump to conclusions.
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Retro ...
Last edited by occrider on Sep-19-2003 at 13:37
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