quote:

Originally posted by Shakka This is precisely the kind of commentary you look for near and around market tops. The question is, will it be different this time? Dangerous last words.

quote:

Originally posted by Shakka This is precisely the kind of commentary you look for near and around market tops. The question is, will it be different this time? Dangerous last words.

One of my premier picks of June 2008...

HANS - Hansen Natural Corp - $35.02
http://www.hansens.com/

Hansen Natural Corporation (Hansen) develops, markets, sells and distributes alternative beverage category natural sodas, fruit juices and juice drinks, energy drinks and energy sports drinks, fruit juice smoothies and functional drinks, non-carbonated ready-to-drink iced teas, childrenGÇÖs multi-vitamin juice drinks, Junior Juice juices and flavored sparkling beverages under the HansenGÇÖs brand name. It also develops, markets, sells and distributes energy drinks under brand names, such as Monster Energy, Lost Energy, Joker Mad Energy, Unbound Energy and Ace brand names, as well as Rumba brand energy juice. The Company also markets, sells and distributes the Java Monster line of non-carbonated dairy-based coffee drinks, natural sodas, natural sodas with supplements, organic natural sodas, seltzer waters, sports drinks and energy drinks under the Blue Sky brand name. Its fruit juices for toddlers are marketed under the Junior Juice brand name.

INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 83%
GRADE: B
RATING: BUY
INTRINSIC VALUE: $60.40
TAKE-OVER VALUE: $68.83

Great fundamentals such as 58% annual sales growth over the last 5 years. 118% annual profit growth over the last 5 years. Profit margin of 17% when the average for the Dow Jones is 11%. Returns on equity, assets, and capital all exceed 20%. Sales from the last 4 quarters is 764% higher than sales from 5 years ago. They have plenty of cash on the side to do whatever they want with (start dividend or invest in business). Additionally, the stock is greatly undervalued. I think it is worth almost twice the price it is trading for today.

Look at the HANS chart. The price is really close to its low.



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More research on HANS... http://investors.hansens.com/

Based in Corona, California, Hansen Natural Corporation markets and distributes Hansen's® Natural Sodas, Signature Sodas, fruit juice Smoothies, Energy drinks, Energade® energy sports drinks, E20 Energy Water®, multi-vitamin juice drinks in aseptic packaging, Junior Juice® juice, iced teas, lemonades and juice cocktails, apple juice and juice blends, Blue Sky® brand beverages, Monster Energy® brand energy drinks, Java Monster™ brand coffee energy drinks, Lost® Energy™ brand energy drinks, Joker Mad Energy™, Unbound® Energy and Ace™ Energy brand energy drinks, Rumba™ brand energy juice, and Fizzit™ brand powdered drink mixes. For more information visit www.hansens.com and www.monsterenergy.com.

Letter to the Shareholder's ... http://investors.hansens.com/common...s'%20letter.pdf

I highly recommend reading their 2007 Annual Report... CLICK HERE. Start on page 28.

___________________

Krypton--I'm curious what your black box says about ALD.

my fund is $10.09 on the 3rd day
btw is it possible to see the individual stocks and % holdings on other peoples funds?

my strategy is to apply technical analysis to fundamentally sound companies so the odds are in my favor that the path of least resistance is upwards. Which means I don't have to worry too much about price breaking trendlines downward or anything.

___________________

soulful/latin/deep house + jazz

Last edited by mndeg on Jun-09-2008 at 17:50

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton Haha, well, when people begin tout a potential bubble sector as entering into a new era, that's when I am most suspicious. But I stay 55% invested in the energy sector so I don't think we've reached the bubble burst point.

Soros has claimed it's a bubble and that's how he makes his money, finding bubbles.

Saudi's calling for meetings to see if it can control the price a bit. I don't like the sound of that because I think it means they don't have any more pumping capacity.

quote:

Originally posted by Kinezi Oil is turning out to be a holy grail.. not many retail investors have access to it, neither many retailers bother invest in oil.. and oil has been on a predictible and most vocal publicised uptrend since years... just buy oil anytime, double check that taxi drivers/housewives in japan have not started investing in oil.. do not over leverage.. preferable buy at technical junctures... and you will make money.. holy grail.

You're ignoring political risk. BP just got rammed by Putin and as the price of the black stuff goes up it becomes more and more tempting for countries to nationalize.

As the value of oil aproaches the value that people put on thier life things start getting uggly. Of course you have to remember that in the countries that have oil life is cheap. I know someone who's life was traded for a camera. (ie. the camera bought his freedom.)

For your guys reference, that gamma value is the value of the stock as indicated by the gamma ratio. Compare the gamma value to the market value and see if your stock is cheap or expensive. You want the gamma value is be higher than the market value.

quote:

Originally posted by Groundhog Boy What do your algorithms tell you about CXO and AREX, both small oil & gas explorations? I have CXO now, have been watching AREX and am kicking myself for not buying at 19.xx last week when it dropped on news of some fund dumping it. Both are fairly low volume, with AREX having incredibly low volume. CXO just made a $565M buy of oil & gas properties afterhours tonight, so I'm interested to see how it moves tomorrow.

Sorry dude, nothing good here.

CXO
INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 66%
GRADE: C
RATING: HOLD
GAMMA VALUE: $25.20

AREX
INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 47%
GRADE: D
RATING: SELL
GAMMA VALUE: $11.79

quote:

Originally posted by jonSun Ive been eyeing that stock since your mentioned it. It went down today & has gone down a bit in after hours trading. Any ideas of when its gonna bottom out? Im thinking soon. what do u think of TTM, PAL, SWC, RTP, PTR, USO at the moment?

USO is an ETF. The model only analyzing companies. An ETF is a trading instrument, so it can't be run through the model. TTM could not be run through my model because the data available isn't enough for me to analyze. So I used the marketgrader.com algorithm.

TTM
ADJUSTED MARKETGRADER: 71%
GRADE: B
RATING: BUY
GAMMA VALUE: $34.62

PAL
INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 43%
GRADE: D
RATING: SELL
GAMMA VALUE: $5.12

SWC
INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 48%
GRADE: D
RATING: SELL
GAMMA VALUE: $9.75

RTP
INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 77%
GRADE: B
RATING: BUY
GAMMA VALUE: $454.73

quote:

Originally posted by Shakka Krypton--I'm curious what your black box says about ALD.

ALD is a stock who fundamentals aren't anything of interest but whose value is indicated by the model to be undervalued.

ALD
INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 48%
GRADE: D
RATING: SELL
GAMMA VALUE: $26.00

___________________

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton For your guys reference, that gamma value is the value of the stock as indicated by the gamma ratio. Compare the gamma value to the market value and see if your stock is cheap or expensive. You want the gamma value is be higher than the market value. Sorry dude, nothing good here. CXO INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 66% GRADE: C RATING: HOLD GAMMA VALUE: $25.20 AREX INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 47% GRADE: D RATING: SELL GAMMA VALUE: $11.79

Thanks. Just to be clear, for your valuation alogrithm, neither of these are affected by their lack of a full year's earnings, since neither have been public for a year? I dropped my CXO on Friday when it was up 15% and was going to get back in on a pullback

On another note, how low do you expect the shipping stocks to get? I'm trying to decide when to start averaging down. Friday and today were pretty brutal and I'm not sure it's done. I looked at the back at the charts and saw that this is the 3rd year in a row that they've pulled back over the summer and started picking back up in August, though each year has gotten more extreme as far as the ups and downs.

___________________
"Go back to bed america your government is in control
Here's American Gladiators, here is 56 channels of it,
Watch these picturary retards bang their fuckin' skulls together and congratulate you on living in the land of freedom,
Here you go America you are free to do as we tell you
We want your soul
Your cash, your house, your phone, your cash, your house, your life" -Adam Freeland - We Want Your Soul

quote:

Originally posted by Groundhog Boy Thanks. Just to be clear, for your valuation alogrithm, neither of these are affected by their lack of a full year's earnings, since neither have been public for a year? I dropped my CXO on Friday when it was up 15% and was going to get back in on a pullback On another note, how low do you expect the shipping stocks to get? I'm trying to decide when to start averaging down. Friday and today were pretty brutal and I'm not sure it's done. I looked at the back at the charts and saw that this is the 3rd year in a row that they've pulled back over the summer and started picking back up in August, though each year has gotten more extreme as far as the ups and downs.

It does not matter whether they have been public for a year. They still have earnings reports going back years...

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investo...XO&stmtView=Qtr
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investo...ex&stmtView=Qtr

The shipping sector is really volatile on the short-term. My outlook is bullish on the long-term. China, Brazil, India, and Russia are growing economic giants. International trade will only continue to exponentially increase. The dry-bulk shippers will be in the midst of the growth. Shipping everything from commodities to consumer products, the shipping sector will continue to benefit as long as international trade continues to flourish. Right now, trade is flourishing like never before. I am really bullish on the shipping sector even still, even with all the volatility. It means nothing to me. The sector is not as undervalued as before, but there is still plenty of room to grow. Take note of how far many shipping stocks are from their 52 week highs. That should suggest to you how much room is available in these stocks.

___________________

quote:

Originally posted by Krypton ALD is a stock who fundamentals aren't anything of interest but whose value is indicated by the model to be undervalued. ALD INTRINSIC STRENGTH: 48% GRADE: D RATING: SELL GAMMA VALUE: $26.00

That is somewhat refreshing. Read David Einhorn's book--I believe this could be the next Enron. It really sounds like a ponzi scheme.