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TranceAddict Forums > Other > Political Discussion / Debate > Bird flu 'could kill 150m people'
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NeoPhono
Übermensch



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: In Orbit

Sorry...didn't have as much time as I thought I would today.

Anyway the quick and dirty on viral recombination.

In this case, recombination is a little different from the recombination that occurs in human sex cells. Whereas in meiosis parts of genes can recombine, in a virus, we're talking about entire genes being transplanted.

In the case of the avian flu, here is what people are thinking happens. You have a "bird" flu, that is found in birds and has properties that make it only harmful to birds, in that a human can't catch a cold from a sick bird. On the other hand, you have a "human" flu, that is the same, but only harmful to humans. With recombination, you are assuming that the "bird" flu, gets together with the "human" flu (either in another animal, or in the bird or human in areas where the two live close together, AKA Asia) and the two viruses switch some genes and now you have a "bird" flu that is contagious to humans.

The problem is this particular avian flu, that we are fearful will recombine and become virulant to humans, is a nasty one. It has killed millions of birds and seems to be very easily spread and works pretty quickly.

Another problem is that a general trend in communicable disease is that the higher the population density, the quicker a diease tends to act on its host, the easier it tends to spread and the more dire the outcome of the disease is (i.e. death instead of just a "cold"). If you look at flu outbreaks, such as ones that occured in barracks and military hospitals in WWI, you have "normal" flus that went out of control due to the high population densities found.

The phenomenon can also be seen in AIDS. In Africa, where you have a high population density and incredible rates of infection, the AIDS virus itself tends to be more virulant than its European or American counterpart. Even with the effects of drugs aside, the African AIDS/HIV virus is much more dangerous and deadly than the versions found on other continents.

Why is this? Simple, if you have a low population density an extremely virulant disease tends to kill itself off as it kills off hosts. However, in an area of high population, these "super" viruses are able to spread to new hosts before they themselves die off. It's a pretty sad, yet logical situation.

Okay, I think that's enough for now. Let me know if there are any questions.

Old Post Oct-05-2005 23:43  United States
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metalgearsolid
I am a sexist



Registered: Apr 2005
Location: For you neo/

Neophone you said you worked at a hospital; what do you do exactly?

Old Post Oct-05-2005 23:55 
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NeoPhono
Übermensch



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: In Orbit

I'm working on my masters degree in Anatomy and Physiology and I work two to three nights a week at a cancer hospital. There, I do phlebotomy work, EKGs, and a whole assortment of other patient care activities. It's a research hospital, so I also do data collection and other tasks associated with clinical trials and research.

http://www.jamesline.com/

Old Post Oct-06-2005 00:33  United States
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tiesto14
Let The Music Play



Registered: Oct 2001
Location: The Palladium New York City

quote:
Originally posted by killingjoke

7) lesbian and gay rights- affects the birthrate tremendously!!!!!!!!
cannot stressed it enough.

9) poor moral values- which leads to premarital sex- point 4





you are insane!!


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Old Post Oct-06-2005 00:45  Bahamas
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tiesto14
Let The Music Play



Registered: Oct 2001
Location: The Palladium New York City

The same crap figures they are saying about this flu thing reminds of when i used to watch the news when AIDS started.....figures are about the same.


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Bring back 1994 NYC clubbing nights, cus the sh*t today is filled with junk parties and DJs that play sh*t House.....Zabiela, Sander, or Howells and all the rest suck and couldnt throw a night like it was in the early 90s in NYC!!!...Screw Twilo - give me Limelight circa 1993!!!

Old Post Oct-06-2005 00:48  Bahamas
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Gmoney part II
tranceaddict



Registered: Sep 2005
Location: Boston

Yes, I have a question. First of all, I have no belief in this bird flu nonsense. Most birds are annoying anyway. Anyway, my question is this: what is to stop other diseases from becoming airborne? Like take the HIV example. How do we know that HIV won't mutate so it becomes airborne? Actually, I was thinking about this the other day. Why don't they take someone with HIV and then pump blood out of them while replacing it with blood from a donor? That way the blood with the low white cell count will be gone and it can be replaced with blood with a normal cell count. That way a person's immune system would never get weaker.


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Old Post Oct-06-2005 01:36  United States
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NeoPhono
Übermensch



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: In Orbit

quote:
Originally posted by Gmoney part II
Yes, I have a question. First of all, I have no belief in this bird flu nonsense. Most birds are annoying anyway. Anyway, my question is this: what is to stop other diseases from becoming airborne? Like take the HIV example. How do we know that HIV won't mutate so it becomes airborne? Actually, I was thinking about this the other day. Why don't they take someone with HIV and then pump blood out of them while replacing it with blood from a donor? That way the blood with the low white cell count will be gone and it can be replaced with blood with a normal cell count. That way a person's immune system would never get weaker.


There is always the possibility of a mutation allowing AIDS/HIV to become airborn, but it is very unlikely. At this point, the virus is very weak when it is not inside a host. Outside of the body, the AIDS/HIV virus can only last a few minutes, if that. That's why you can't get AIDS from a toilet seat or sharing an old straw or something like that. An airborn disease has to be pretty tough in order to make it from one host to another using only air as its living environment in between.

As far as transferring white blood cells go, you have to realize that white blood cells are person-specific. If you take my white blood cells, and put them in you, they're going to think your body is a foreign substance and attack it. When you recieve a blood transfusion, it is irradiated and immune system cells are reduced. I guess there may be some way to get around it in the future, but that would only be treating a symptom, not the actual disease, and I'm not sure how long you could support a 1:1 transfer ratio of "healthy" blood to immunocompromised blood.

It's like taking Tylenol when you have an infection. It lowers your fever, but does nothing to get rid of the infection. (In fact, unless it's dangerously high, a fever is a good thing to have when you have an infection)

Old Post Oct-06-2005 03:42  United States
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Yoepus
Neo-condimist



Registered: Jan 2002
Location: Ketchup fields, Texas

quote:
Originally posted by NeoPhono
Why is this? Simple, if you have a low population density an extremely virulant disease tends to kill itself off as it kills off hosts. However, in an area of high population, these "super" viruses are able to spread to new hosts before they themselves die off. It's a pretty sad, yet logical situation.

Okay, I think that's enough for now. Let me know if there are any questions.


+1 Good post.

This is why I would always get sick once ayear when going to school and living in dorms with hundreds or thousands of other students (new mutation each year). But then I had immunity to the "common cold" for a while...



I wanted to bring into this thread a side note. It has been a recent revelation of biologist/scientist that the reason why life indeed exists (why does life force itself to reproduce? die and reproduce? why can't life just live? live longer? what is the point to it all?) is because of such diseases. Viruses can mutate so quickly that they have "forced" to other life to accept the adaptibility afforded by evolution as the shelter to ensure its survival.


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Old Post Oct-06-2005 04:46  Israel
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Gmoney part II
tranceaddict



Registered: Sep 2005
Location: Boston

I would just like to bring up something that you might find interesting. I just read the BBC NEWS article about this 150 million people dying from the bird flu nonsense.



Here is what is says in the article:


But the World Health Organisation has distanced itself from the figure.

The WHO spokesman on influenza, Dick Thompson, told a news conference in Geneva that the WHO's official estimate of the number of people who could die was between two million and 7.4 million.


Just because some assclown decides to state that 150 million people are going to die from the bird flu doesn't make it true. What if tommorrow I went on CNN and claimed that I had evidence that 1.5 billion are going to die from the flu.


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Last edited by Gmoney part II on Oct-06-2005 at 05:07

Old Post Oct-06-2005 05:00  United States
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ogvh5150
Formula 1 Addict



Registered: Aug 2003
Location: F1 2008 Red Bull Racing/BMW Sauber

That number they claim is so counter argumentative. Do they have any figures on which of the global population is going to get hit the worst? Is it going to affect 150 million chinese or asians? Is it going to affect 10 million africans? 60 million americans?

Like I've said before they are willing to create a situation to herd the population into their next agenda.

Theres 6 billion people on the planet. There are some who believe that this planet should "stabilize" at 500 million. Question is just who are these 500 million going to be?

Georgia Guidestones




NeoPhono:

Could this recombination be done in a lab setting?


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Old Post Oct-07-2005 01:52 
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NeoPhono
Übermensch



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: In Orbit

quote:
Originally posted by ogvh5150
NeoPhono:

Could this recombination be done in a lab setting?


I wouldn't go as far as saying it would be impossible, but it would sure be difficult. You'd first have to find the gene that allows the virus to bind to receptors on human cells, and then successfully transplant that to the virus you wanted to make harmful to humans. It would be a tough task, yet I'm sure given enough time, money and patience, it would probably be possible.

Nature has a much easier time in that it can mutate and recombine as much as it wants until it finds a virus that is successfully harmful to humans. It doesn't hurt that the generation times for pathogens are so short.

Old Post Oct-07-2005 13:16  United States
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Gmoney part II
tranceaddict



Registered: Sep 2005
Location: Boston

quote:
Originally posted by ogvh5150

Theres 6 billion people on the planet. There are some who believe that this planet should "stabilize" at 500 million. Question is just who are these 500 million going to be?

Georgia Guidestones
?



I could tell you who these people should be but that would get me perma-banned again.

What they should do is create some kind of race of flying monkey-like creatures that are immune to the flu that can kill all these infected birds.( ala The Island of Dr Moreu). But of course then the monkey-creatures might cause problems of their own. Hey, if you really want to see something scary, read about the


Marburg virus :

They had outbreak of it in a village in Angola a little while ago. It has a 90% fatality rate.

"
After an incubation period of 5-10 days, the onset of the disease is sudden and is marked by fever, chills, headache, and myalgia. Around the fifth day after the onset of symptoms, a maculopapular rash, most prominent on the trunk (chest, back, stomach), may occur. Nausea, vomiting, chest pain, a sore throat, abdominal pain, and diarrhea then may appear. Symptoms become increasingly severe and may include jaundice, inflammation of the pancreas, severe weight loss, delirium, shock, liver failure, and multi-organ dysfunction."


Year(s)
2004-2005


Angola Country


Uige Province, Angola


313 as of May 6, 2005 Reported no. of human cases


280 (89) as of May 6, 2005 Reported no.(%) of deaths among cases


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Last edited by Gmoney part II on Oct-07-2005 at 17:31

Old Post Oct-07-2005 17:08  United States
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TranceAddict Forums > Other > Political Discussion / Debate > Bird flu 'could kill 150m people'
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