quote:

Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov Open caucuses? Where? http://www.buildthevote.org/page.as...cus_Eligibility

Idaho, North Dakota, and Minnesota, where the delegate count measured as follows with Obama's followed by Hillary's:
ID - 15-3
MN - 48-24
ND - 8-5

That's a grand total of 39 delegates net. Big change in the count there. About the same as her superdelegate lead right now.

___________________
"Go back to bed america your government is in control
Here's American Gladiators, here is 56 channels of it,
Watch these picturary retards bang their fuckin' skulls together and congratulate you on living in the land of freedom,
Here you go America you are free to do as we tell you
We want your soul
Your cash, your house, your phone, your cash, your house, your life" -Adam Freeland - We Want Your Soul

quote:

Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov I apologize - I didn't realize you were only cherry-picking states that work for your argument.

haha Well, way to put your foot in Mr. Opus' mouth. Those were the states he listed as Obama having a good chance at winning in November. So no, that was someone on your end of the argument cherry-picking, and me disagreeing intelligently with by going one by one with numbers on.

quote:

Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov Yes. That makes you less motivated, and less likely to stand in line to vote in November. It also makes you less likely to be an activist for your candidate. If you can't get off work a few hours early and participate in your democracy in action, then sorry, deal with the insinuation I throw at you. I don't care if you are poor - live on rice and ramen for a week so that you can afford to lose three hours of working at your 12.00/hr. job. If you care about the election and who will be the next President, it's a pretty small price to pay, imo.

I don't know where you're from but there are no half-days in New York, not to mention I commute out of state, sorry. Standing in line in November means going to the polls and taking 15 minutes tops out of my day before I go to work (and night-school later). Going to a 4-hour caucus is in no way similar to that. I'm glad my state had primaries, that's all. I wish all states had them, regardless of whether Clinton or Obama saw the advantage of them, it's not really important.

As far as parcitipating in "democracy in action", if we were smart, we'd do like several other countries do and make elections a Saturday-thru-Monday thing. Of course, keep the media out of doing exit polling, but that's a better system, imo. I repeat my previous argument that, if you expect everyone to be somewhere at a certain hour for several hours, that's wishful thinking. Although I also go to college, on top of working, not many people have the option of "cutting class"... once again, it's called Blue Collar America. Go home early while working in the mines or in the factories or at the construction job, see if you have a job the next day, or someone to cover your shift.

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http://thesoundofeco.com

quote:

Originally posted by DJ Eco electoral votes electoral votes electoral votes electoral votes electoral votes electoral votes...

The DLC strategy doesn't equal a majority of electoral votes. If you don't believe me, just ask Al Gore or John Kerry.

quote:

We can both argue til we're blue in the face. You can make speculations and I can make speculations. All the Republicans (all few dozen thousand of them) that came out to vote for him in the Western states, I honestly don't think they'll make this crazy difference in November. I appreciate Mr. Opus for a very informative reply last page about what more is at stake within these states (not just electoral votes), but I still can't see it affecting the presidential run.

Those independents and Republicans that voted in the Democratic primary could have voted in the Republican primary instead. But they didn't. Because they would rather vote for Barack Obama than the candidates on the Republican ballot.

quote:

For every 5 or 6 or 7 electoral-vote state Obama **MIGHT** take in November (purple states), according to you at least, he puts at risk a Florida or Pennsylvania or Michigan, etc.

You've yet to show that Hillary is better positioned to win Michigan than Barack is. I know you hate polls, so I'll refrain from showing you the ones that have him polling better than her in Michigan. And Florida was never contested either, so that's unsubstantiated as well. And I'm not sure what this business about putting Florida at risk is, because it's pretty solidly red.

As to PA, he's polling dead even with McCain. I'll take my chances there against a candidate that continually screws over the working class like John McCain does. McCain also just said that women don't deserve equal pay as men. Again, I'll take my chances among the moderate women that voted for Hillary against Barack.

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As far as Penn. is concerned, GHB said it himself, it's a racist state! Sad but true, that could make a huge impact in November. We don't know!!! That's the thing. If Clinton wins what we won in 2004 plus an extra state here and there (an Ohio or a Nevada maybe?), there we go!....

Wait, did you just turn your argument into: "we should vote for Hillary because Barack is black and America is racist"?

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Don't forget, there's McCain on the other side of things who can't wait to put a little effort into taking a Pennsylvania or Florida or Michigan, AND HE CAN. He'd be more than glad to hand a New Mexico or Iowa Obama's way.

Obama is at least as competitive in Michigan as Hillary (see above), Florida hasn't gone Dem in quite a while and is trending more red, and Penn. is dead even. Why is Obama at such a disadvantage in those states? You keep saying it but you don't substantiate that claim.

Obama puts a dozen states into play that Hillary does not -- North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Iowa, Georgia, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Nebraska, New Mexico, Delaware, Texas (!). Who says he has to lose PA to win two of those? Winning PA + GA + NC = winning the election. Regardless of what happens in the other seven contested states (not to mention Florida or Ohio).

But more importantly, it makes a McCain campaign that is already financially vulnerable, have to play catch-up all across the country in states that were once considered GOP locks. Obama won't have to contest any Democratic strongholds, regardless of your insinuation about New Jersey, New York, and California.

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quote:

Originally posted by Groundhog Boy Idaho, North Dakota, and Minnesota, where the delegate count measured as follows with Obama's followed by Hillary's: ID - 15-3 MN - 48-24 ND - 8-5 That's a grand total of 39 delegates net. Big change in the count there. About the same as her superdelegate lead right now.

Precisely.

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Originally posted by DJ Eco haha Well, way to put your foot in Mr. Opus' mouth. Those were the states he listed as Obama having a good chance at winning in November. So no, that was someone on your end of the argument cherry-picking, and me disagreeing intelligently with by going one by one with numbers on. I don't know where you're from but there are no half-days in New York, not to mention I commute out of state, sorry. Standing in line in November means going to the polls and taking 15 minutes tops out of my day before I go to work (and night-school later). Going to a 4-hour caucus is in no way similar to that. I'm glad my state had primaries, that's all. I wish all states had them, regardless of whether Clinton or Obama saw the advantage of them, it's not really important. As far as parcitipating in "democracy in action", if we were smart, we'd do like several other countries do and make elections a Saturday-thru-Monday thing. Of course, keep the media out of doing exit polling, but that's a better system, imo. I repeat my previous argument that, if you expect everyone to be somewhere at a certain hour for several hours, that's wishful thinking. Although I also go to college, on top of working, not many people have the option of "cutting class"... once again, it's called Blue Collar America. Go home early while working in the mines or in the factories or at the construction job, see if you have a job the next day, or someone to cover your shift.

Caucuses typically take about an hour. Or at least they did in Iowa, Nevada, Texas, and Minnesota (the states where I had friends that worked them this year -- all for Hillary as a matter of fact).

In my precinct in Ohio in 2004, it was a four hour line to vote.

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quote:

Originally posted by DJ Eco I don't remember mentioning Minnesota? I listed specific states (and I could be wrong) but none of them included Minnesota.

You didn't make the following incorrect assertion at Apr-25-2008 22:48

quote:

Originally posted by DJ Eco quote: Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov 3. Democratic strongholds? You mean the ones we're going to win no matter who the nominee is? Like California and New York? Yeah, I'll take a candidate that will broaden the electoral map to include places like South Carolina, Iowa, Nebraska, etc. Thanks. 4. To preempt you on the "battleground state" argument the mainstream media is in love with at the moment. Yes, Hillary won in Ohio and PA. That doesn't mean Barack would lose to McCain. In fact, ironically, he polls better than Hillary does in a general election matchup in PA. That said, Obama has won South Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Washington, Wisconsin, etc. - all "battleground states." See, that's where you're wrong. Every Obama supporter likes to put two and two together, although, it's not always so easy. Think about it. 10,000 to 80,000 people are showing up to the caucuses in these red/battleground states of maybe a few million people.

EDITED to reflect incorrect cite of quoted post

___________________
"Go back to bed america your government is in control
Here's American Gladiators, here is 56 channels of it,
Watch these picturary retards bang their fuckin' skulls together and congratulate you on living in the land of freedom,
Here you go America you are free to do as we tell you
We want your soul
Your cash, your house, your phone, your cash, your house, your life" -Adam Freeland - We Want Your Soul

Last edited by Groundhog Boy on Apr-27-2008 at 22:24

quote:

Originally posted by Groundhog Boy You didn't make the following incorrect assertion at 15:36 on April 25th See, that's where you're wrong. Every Obama supporter likes to put two and two together, although, it's not always so easy. Think about it. 10,000 to 80,000 people are showing up to the caucuses in these red/battleground states of maybe a few million people.

[/QUOTE]

Actually, those numbers would have been correct for the Republican caucuses - but democratic turnout in the caucuses this year has more than doubled the GOP - yet another sign that Obama has energized the base more than any other candidate.

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quote:

Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov Also, ask yourself this: how many people are voting for Hillary because they remember Bill's presidency fondly? More than a few I would imagine.

My mother freely admitted that she did in PA.

___________________
"Go back to bed america your government is in control
Here's American Gladiators, here is 56 channels of it,
Watch these picturary retards bang their fuckin' skulls together and congratulate you on living in the land of freedom,
Here you go America you are free to do as we tell you
We want your soul
Your cash, your house, your phone, your cash, your house, your life" -Adam Freeland - We Want Your Soul

quote:

Originally posted by DJ Eco I don't know where you're from but there are no half-days in New York, not to mention I commute out of state, sorry. Standing in line in November means going to the polls and taking 15 minutes tops out of my day before I go to work (and night-school later). Going to a 4-hour caucus is in no way similar to that. I'm glad my state had primaries, that's all. I wish all states had them, regardless of whether Clinton or Obama saw the advantage of them, it's not really important.

You do realize that most caucuses are done in the evening hours, where work isn't a major consideration for the normal 9-5 crowd. I don't know if you've ever tried to contact people outside of NYC for work reasons, but it's pretty much impossible in "afterhours." If cutting into your American Idol viewing time prohibited your from attending a caucus, tough shit.

Not that it mattered for NY, but I couldn't vote in NY because I was called out of state at the last minute for work, denying me the ability to vote at all because it was too late to absentee ballot.

___________________
"Go back to bed america your government is in control
Here's American Gladiators, here is 56 channels of it,
Watch these picturary retards bang their fuckin' skulls together and congratulate you on living in the land of freedom,
Here you go America you are free to do as we tell you
We want your soul
Your cash, your house, your phone, your cash, your house, your life" -Adam Freeland - We Want Your Soul

quote:

Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov The DLC strategy doesn't equal a majority of electoral votes. If you don't believe me, just ask Al Gore or John Kerry.

I think I'll ask the Supreme Court about Al Gore's situation. And John Kerry... well... he wasn't as strong a candidate as either Hillary or Barack would be.

quote:

Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov Those independents and Republicans that voted in the Democratic primary could have voted in the Republican primary instead. But they didn't. Because they would rather vote for Barack Obama than the candidates on the Republican ballot.

Or there was no one with a chance left on tthe Republican ballot. We'll see for sure in November, if Obama is the candidate, how many Republicans go for him. Republican family friends of my family went with their friends to vote for Obama because they hate the Clintons that much. Not only that, but they thought Obama has no chance against McCain. Obviously, this is anecdotal, this is based on experiences of the people around us and no indication of how widespread it is, but we're not alone in thinking this way. GHB earlier said Pennsylvania voted for Hillary because it's a racist state. I'll go on a limb of my own and say that the "Republicans for Obama" numbers are fudged and we have no indication how many of them are going to go for him in November. For all we know, they drop him like a hot potato by then.

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/da...5117.guest.html

Rush Limbaugh himself told people to "pimp" themselves out for Hillary. Once again, not saying THIS IS THE CASE (jeez, I have to put my disclaimers otherwise I'm torn apart), just saying it's possible and kinda freaky that anything like this is going on, no matter how small-scale. Sadly, the open primaries and caucuses system allows this.

quote:

Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov And Florida was never contested either, so that's unsubstantiated as well. And I'm not sure what this business about putting Florida at risk is, because it's pretty solidly red.

Tell that to Al Gore (see above). Had the numbers not been smudged over there, the triangulation would have worked very well for him had he only gained that state, but that's a discussion for another time. As for Hillary in Florida, a little something I posted two pages ago:

quote:

Obama has also fared poorly among Latino and Jewish voters in every primary held so far. This is of consequence most notably in Florida, which has 27 electoral votes. In 2000, Al Gore won 67 percent of the vote in Broward County and 62 percent in Palm Beach County -- both have large Jewish populations. In this year's Florida primary, Obama lost those counties to Clinton by 57 percent to 33 percent and 61 percent to 27 percent. No Democrat can carry Florida without big margins in Broward and Palm Beach. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...clinton_an.html

quote:

Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov Wait, did you just turn your argument into: "we should vote for Hillary because Barack is black and America is racist"?

Exactly what I said, man, you caught me!! C'mon man, someone said Pennsylvania went for Hillary because it's racist, and I merely used that to show he might just lose that state, according to the person's rationale. Don't put words in my mouth.

And as far as New Jersey, New York, and Cali, I guess I'll take back my statement about them being a tought fight for Obama. New York and Cali, I guess he wouldn't have a problem in, but Jersey, don't underestimate it. There's a lot of Latinos here and they don't like black people. Don't play the race card on me again, just calling it out how it is. Not to mention, McCain is pretty strong here among moderate Democrats. It's pretty shaky ground here, as well as some other Dem states, that's all I'm saying once. We won't know anything for sure until November, so let's agree on that at least.

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http://thesoundofeco.com

quote:

Originally posted by Groundhog Boy My mother freely admitted that she did in PA.

I have four friends that work or have worked for the Hillary campaign this cycle. Three joined the campaign because of Bill, and the fourth did so because she wants to see a woman elected President. None of them joined for a substantive issue-based reason.

Eco can bait on the basis of race or "rock star" persona all he wants, but it's a well-documented fact that many Hillary supporters are in her corner because of Bill - is it any surprise that he makes nearly as many campaign stops as she does? Or that nearly as many campaign reporters follow his schedule? Or that the majority of controversies in this campaign were begun by something Bill said? Why is he relevant in a way that Michelle Obama is not? Because a large number of people believe they're voting for his third term in some way.

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