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| quote: | Originally posted by mute79
wasn't it a strain of h1n1 that caused like 100m deaths in early 20th century? what's to stop this strain from mutating into another one of those..?
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Hygiene, for one. More importantly, the Spanish flu was bird flu, not swine flu. The more recent bird flu is H5N1 but doesn't seem to be capable of human transmission; thus, it's deadly, unlike the swine flu, but not pandemic.
Just as there's nothing to "stop" this strain from mutating into something with a higher mortality rate, there's nothing to "stop" the avian flu from mutating into something more contagious. Or to stop the swine flu from mutating into something less severe, for that matter; death tends to work against faster-acting viruses, such that milder strains are more likely to survive because they get passed on more, and subsequently build up an immunity in their hosts to the stronger strains.
The question isn't really what's stopping it from mutating into a deadlier virus, the question is how likely is such a mutation to occur, and how easily would it be transmitted. Colds and seasonal flu mutate constantly but almost never become fatal on their own.
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