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Jokes aside, now that I've had a full round of matches to prod the model with a stick and listen for screams and growls, here's what it is currently insisting is reality:- Argentina - 25%: I deeply dislike how relaxed my model is about Argentina. It's lounging there in a silk dressing gown, sipping mate, telling me everything is fine, while I'm frantically checking the pipes for gas leaks. Something feels off, but I can't find the faulty wire. Still, after Cape Verde managed to staple Spain to the floor, Argentina have become the runaway favourites. I don't think they're this good, but I don't make the rules. Well, technically I do, but I'm not going to start bending them just because the machine has built a Messi-shaped shrine in the basement.
- France - 15.425%: Looks... fair, frankly. Annoyingly reasonable, in fact. The sort of number that turns up wearing a sensible attire and refuses to say anything stupid for the cameras.
- A Newcomer (i.e. either Colombia [5.23%] or Portugal [4.705%]) - 13.54%: Always possible, yes, but a new star is not automatically born just because the tournament has started making cinematic trailer noises. Sorry, Lady Gaga. Historically, first-time winners usually need one of two things: (1) home soil, even if they're wobbling around (Uruguay 1930, Italy 1934, England 1966, Germany 1974, Argentina 1978) or (2) an ELO rating so absurdly high before kick-off that the rest of the field should probably have filed a noise complaint, as with Spain in 2010.
The outlier is Brazil, because of course we are. We choke at home with the dramatic commitment of a prestige HBO finale, and in 1958 we were not exactly the pre-tournament overlords. The three hosts all have the ingredients for a deep run this year, but we've never had this many hosts before, so the model is basically staring at the data like a Victorian child confronted with a microwave. With no chimneys to sweep, it's just lost. It also doesn't help that Colombia and Portugal are in the same group, because apparently probability needed a bit of theatre.
Anyway, I would love to throw all caution to the wind and declare that South Korea are making the semifinals again, but my model has responded with a dry little cough and a printed rejection letter. Such is the life of an academic.
- Spain - 13.345%: I'm willing to look past the Cape Verde fiasco, mainly because Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia in 2022 and still won the whole thing.
- England - 7.885%: It might be coming home after all, which would be less a sporting event and more like the Halley comet coming back after 60 years.
- Brazil - 6.15%: We've improved a lot since Ancelotti took the helm. Whether that improvement amounts to a genuine resurrection or just someone applying premium wax to a car already sliding into an abyss, only the knockout stage can tell.
- Germany - 4.23%: Any lower than this and it becomes too unlikely to deserve a proper mention. I'm giving Germany the benefit of the doubt because past champions tend to have a suspicious habit of remembering how to win, even when they enter the tournament looking like tourists. Their thrashing of Curaçao also helps. Unfortunately, this means the list ends here. Netherlands? Nor way.
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Well, that's probably the wrongest I've ever been on TA about anything. Good thing I didn't place that bet. |
We love you all the same, it's okay 
| quote: | Originally posted by Mattsanity
Respect to Mexico. It's tough to accept the loss, but they deserved the win. |
No! Argentina lost to a green-clad team in 2022 and went on to win the trophy. This is a sign it's Korea's turn to be world champions!
| quote: | Originally posted by planetaryplayer
Surely there are not big expectations for the Korea squad? |
This isn't the first time people in green shocked Koreans, but I believe they can make it to 6 rounds.
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) as givens. However, predicting a successful group-stage match against weaker opponents is also compatible with admitting that a deep run might hit a wall in the quarterfinals, for example.
