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| quote: | Originally posted by tecnolover
Opus
In response to one of your other threads summarizing why Kerry and the dems lost...
I believe you said something to the effect that they need to play rougher and attack character more? I completely disagree. Negative campaigning is something that really has got out of hand lately. I think most people including myself were sick of hearing all the character attacks by each candidate. It makes the other candidate look very desperate and as if they have no firm ground to stand on. A very ugly and self-weakening tactic. |
I share your sentiments, however research has continually and clearly demonstrated that when it comes down to 2 candidates, negative attacks work. This is in stark contrast to multiple candidate scenarios, like the primaries where you have more than just 2 choices. We saw how negative campaigning tore both Dean and Gephardt apart in Iowa, giving Kerry the lead and momentum. But again, it plays into the psyche of citizens when there's just two candidates. Sure they may be sick of them, but they work.
| quote: | | Pres. Bush ran a friendlier campaign than Kerry and this helped Bush a bit more in the end. |
That's utter crap:
This is the cumulative independent expenditures for the DCCC and NRCC from October 1st through the election.
Here's how they break down:
NRCC:
Number of IE's Against Candidate - 611
Number of IE's For Candidate - 193
Total - 804
Expenditures Against Candidate - $40,435,187.13
% of Numbers Against Candidate - 76.00%
% Total - 89.50%
Expenditures For Candidate - $4,741,391.33
% of Numbers For Candidate - 24.00%
% of Total - 10.50%
Total money spent - $45,176,578.46
DCCC:
Number of IE's Against Candidate - 31
Number of IE's For Candidate - 309
Total - 340
Expenditures Against Candidate - $4,822,996.44
% of Numbers Against Candidate - 9.12%
% Total - 17.57%
Expenditures For Candidate - $22,622,874.58
% of Numbers For Candidate - 90.88%
% of Total - 82.43%
Total money spent - $27,445,871.02
Now if you're going to argue about the "I approve of this message" ads, that may be a different story, and I haven't seen those numbers yet. If, by chance you have seen those numbers, suppose you could show us here to support your notion?
| quote: | | Remember, Bush was not the one attacking Kerry's vietnam record, the swifties were. |
Ahh yes, just like Kerry not attacking Bush that often, rather the Democratic 527's were.
You know as well as I the intermingling connections between all these groups and the campaigns. The Smear Boaters were heavily connected to Bush, and denying this is simply denying reality.
| quote: | | Kerry verbally attacked Bush with every other word out of his mouth and people were sick of it. His constant argument was that he should be pres. because Bush was screwing everything up. This is a very weak argument. This kind of negative lecturing doesn't sit well with many people. What on earth was Kerry's campaign team thinking?! |
Uh, perhaps they were thinking that our citizens needed a healthy dose of reality?
There's a concept.
| quote: | | No one wants to hear someone constantly criticizing our president. |
Yeah! You're either "with us or against us", right? In fact, why have an election at all? Why criticize that which need be criticized?
| quote: | | What we want to hear is how to fix a problem and the hard details. Kerry offered close to none. |
I tend to wonder if you truly listened or read anything at all on Kerry's proposals and policies. Not all of his answers could be given in stump speeches, nor could they have ALL have been given during the debates. He gave some parts of his solutions in there, but the bulk of his solutions were on his website. Had you the chance to read any of them?
Now don't get me wrong - Kerry certainly had his weaknesses, and he most certainly could have conveyed his message better and more clearer. But to simply flat-out and say that he offered no solutions is nothing shy of ignorance.
| quote: | Kerry lost because...
1. Himself and his party were not centered. Too far left. This is possibly the biggest of all and encompasses the most. |
Yes, pandering to the anti-gay bashers and the pro-lifers were certainly not on his agenda.
But to be sure, his New England liberal status was of no help. It's no mystery that the last 2 Democratic Presidents (and 1 VP) were from the South.
| quote: | | 2. His negative campaigning got the best of him |
You still have to support this assertion, esp. when comparing it to Bush's negativity.
| quote: | | 3. He made too many promises. |
How many promises did Bush make in 2000? How many has he kept?
Oh, BTW, did his tax cuts, by chance, trim down the deficit, like he promised?
| quote: | 4. He never defended himself against the swift boat vets claims, which in the eyes of myself and most americans imo suggested that he couldn't because it was the truth. This was a biggie for character credibility. Kerry needed to clear this immediately but instead his campaign retaliated by attacking the character of the vets. Bad move.
5. Character concerns in the minds of many american voters due to Kerry's innability to properly handle no. 4 above.
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Most pundits tend to think he simply didn't act on them soon enough. I have yet to see any direct evidence that shows conclusively that the Smear Boaters were a decisive factor in peoples' decisions here. In fact, Zogby tends to state just the opposite:
| quote: | "Half (50%) of the electorate has seen the ads and another 40% has heard about them. 52% of Independents have seen the ads higher than either major party.
The bad news for Bush is that the "Law of Unintended Consequences"
seems to be taking hold. While 13% of the electorate has moved away from Kerry because of the ads, a total of 23% have moved away from Mr. Bush. And while on fifth of the electorate believe the Swift Boat Vets for Truth a fully half (50%) believe Kerry and his crew mates.
Furthermore, one in five (20%) of independent voters have moved away
from the Mr. Bush because of the ads, while only 13% have moved away from Kerry. Independents also remain unconvinced of the charges. While 16% believe the Swift Boat Veterans another 49% believe Mr. Kerry and his crew mates.
This ad campaign may have impacted voter intensity in a way that the
Swift Boat Veterans did not intend. The ad campaign seems to have shorn up Mr. Kerry's base, and energized core Democratic voters to work harder to elect Mr. Kerry. More than two in five (44%) Democrats and half (50%) of Kerry/Edwards voters are now less likely to vote for Bush or more likely to vote for Kerry because of the Swift Boat Ads. In contrast, just one in five (22%) Republicans and one quarter (25%) of Bush/Cheney voters are more likely to vote for Mr. Bush or less likely to vote for Mr. Kerry.
This may largely be due to the limited effectiveness these ads had in convincing even Republicans of the Swift Boat Veterans tales. Nearly half (45%) of both Republicans and Bush/Cheney voters believed the story of the Swift Boat Veterans over that of Mr. Kerry, while on the other side, four in five (80%) Democrats and nearly nine in ten (88%) Kerry/Edwards voters believed Mr. Kerry's side of the story.
The most recent numbers suggest that Mr. Bush's rise in the polls may have been a result of a better media presence during the month of August. They also suggest that any gains that Mr. Bush may have made from these ads has peaked and has the potential to do harm by turning off independents and energizing the Democratic base".
(Zogby's Real America - September 2004) |
| quote: | | 6. He never established his political position well with the american people. I don't feel the american people really knew what he did/did not support. |
That I can agree on, and it's clear Kerry should have done much better in this aspect. Of course the negative attack ads against Kerry further muddied the waters a bit as well, but Kerry should have done a better job here.
| quote: | | 7. Mrs. Kerry pissed off a lot of women by her idiotic remarks and women are very sensitive voters. J. Kerry should have kept her out of the campaigning as much as possible. I think many despised the thought of her being the first lady by her attitude and mannerisms. |
I know, having an outspoken, strong-willed woman is a bit of a concept for many of those Southerners, ain't it?
| quote: | | 8. Most americans didn't know where he stood on religious faith and family values. The assumption was likely made that they weren't very important to him. Hence he didn't stress them. This was another biggie. |
I agree here too, though it's never a stance of any Democratic candidate to wear his religion on his sleeve, nor use it directly for any policy stance. Reason and logic usually preside instead, which again seems somewhat lacking for our "faith-based" president.
Forgive me if I feel a bit uncomfortable with our President making major decisions because his "gut" tells him it's the right thing to do.
| quote: | | 9. The catholic authority opposed him |
At the height of their moral hypocracy, yes I would agree. Bush aligned a few extra Catholic votes here, no doubt.
| quote: | | 10. A large population of small business owners opposed him because of his unfriendly tax proposals. |
Actually his proposals wouldn't have hurt small businesses much at all, but again he didn't explain his stance well here. Of course Bush's wasn't exactly truthful on his tax cut proposals either:
| quote: | On a campaign trip to Michigan in December of '03, President Bush echoed one of his familiar claims, saying "I want to remind people about is that the tax relief was geared toward small businesses...When you hear us talking about reducing all taxes on individuals, you really hear also the message that we're reducing taxes on small businesses."(1) This statement is the most recent in a long line of similar assertions - an unscientific Lexis-Nexis search shows, that in just the three years since Bush became President, he and Vice President Cheney have given at least 150 separate speeches claiming that their tax proposals are specifically geared to helping small business.
But simple statistics show just how misleading these statements are. In talking about his 2001 tax cut, the President specifically promised that there would be "more than 17.4 million small business owners and entrepreneurs who stand to benefit from dropping the top rate from 39.6% to 33%" - the major piece of his proposal.(2)
But according to nonpartisan analyses of IRS and Treasury Department data, just 3.7% of small business owners are subject to these top tax rates - meaning the rest receive almost nothing from the major piece of his plan.(3) In other words, for every small business owner that benefits, there are 15 small business owners that do not. All told, small business owners "would be far more likely to receive no tax reduction whatsoever from the Administration's tax package than to benefit" in any way.
Similarly, in pushing for his second tax cut in 2003, the President said that "small businesses stand to gain a great deal"(4) from his most recent tax cut proposals, because he said it would "give 23 million small business owners an average tax cut of $2,042."
In fact, "nearly four out of every five tax filers (79%) with small business income would receive less than this amount," according to the nonpartisan Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center.(5) Additionally, "52% of people with small business returns would get $500 or less." The President produced the $2,042 average figure by deceptively averaging the large tax cuts that would go to a small number of wealthy individuals who have some small business income with the miniscule (if any) tax cuts that would go to millions of more typical small business people.
Sources:
1. President Discusses Economy in Michigan, 12/01/2003:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/rele...20031201-6.html
2.Remarks by the President During Meeting with Small Business Owners, 03/16/2001.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/rele...20010316-3.html
3.Reducing the Top Tax Rates: How Much Benefit to Small Business?, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 05/03/2001.
http://www.cbpp.org/5-3-01tax2.htm
4.President Discusses Jobs & Growth Plan in Radio Address, 01/18/2003.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/rele...1/20030118.html
5.President's Radio Address and Other Administration Statements Exaggerate Tax Plan's Impact on Small Businesses, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 01/21/2003.
http://www.cbpp.org/1-18-03tax.htm |
| quote: | | 11. Corporate america opposed him and certainly they have a lot of money, power and influence. |
Bingo.
| quote: | well those are the biggest ones. im sure there are a few more.
All in all, my assesment of voter turnout and the politcal pulse of american's currently would be: the moderate majority of americans don't vote. On average less than half of americans even vote. http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html However, in recent elections the left has had very strong turnout at the polls. And the lefts voter strength continues to come from the same key states mainly New York and California. |
Evidently you didn't receive my memo back on this thread on Democratic partisan gains throughout the country:
http://www.tranceaddict.com/forums/...12&pagenumber=3
| quote: | All of that accounts for why Bush's lead wasn't even greater and why the 2000 election was by popular vote essentially even. Obviously voter turn out was greater this election across the board with 60%- the highest since 1968.http://www.kentucky.com/mld/heraldl...on/10113862.htm My point here is that currently the USA isn't split as much as everyone believes it is. When you have a moderate majority who's voter turnout is less than half and a liberal minority whos voters turnout in great strength and who's strength lies in the two most populated US cities it creates an illusion and skews the real picture. Interestingly the majority of liberals lie in states with high immigrant numbers and a strong want and need for more social welfare because they mostly comprise of lower class americans but thats another discussion altogether.
the dems really needed a strong candidate to beat out a war time president. |
You should have included this last sentence in with your list of reasons why Kerry lost. It was my personal first and foremost reason - it was extremely difficult to beat out an incumbent war time president. Keep the fear drive up and you'll win every time.
You don't think Bush and Rove didn't know this?
| quote: | | Instead they chose possibly one of the worst. It's astonishing to me that they couldn't do better. I almost wonder sometimes if it wasn't a setup to get Bush re-elected. Hmm...that would imply our two party system is really just one. Howz that for conspiracy? Oh well, that another discussion. peace. |
As I said before, this could very well be a major gift to the Democratic movement, depending upon the outcome of events in the next 2 years. As I've said somewhere before, historically speaking the 2nd term for any incumbent is often riddled with controversy and problems for that President and his party.
There is absolutely nothing outside of a miracle in Iraq and a miracle in our economy/deficit that can convince me that this will surely NOT be the case for Bush over his 2nd term.
___________________
Whence September dusk grows crisper still,
with leaves all crimson conquered,
I yearn to shout,
and dance about,
and stick pickles in my honker...
Last edited by MisterOpus1 on Nov-09-2004 at 21:39
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