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Originally posted by Groundhog Boy People like you are the cause of problems in this country. Please die from a brutal car crash and help us all by wiping your idiocy from the world. Thanks,

+1


people need to stop being so irrational about this

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Originally posted by lucid pro tip: if you value your life, NEVER do anything that will place you "outside" of the jonze circle of trust.

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Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov Wanna know why the market is crashing? Sarah Palin keeps opening her mouth: Get the latest news satire and funny videos at 236.com. Who said the market wasn't intelligent?

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Originally posted by Swamper Krypton knows what he's talking about and some of you should head over to the PDD investment thread for a good read. I saw DRYS in your screenshots -- do you hold any of that now or FREE?

The entire dry-bulk shipping sector is a bargain. I'm just throwing out names, but, ESEA, EXM, TRMD, NM...

EXM's 52 week high was over $80. Now it's at $10. The sector is cyclical with the market. So of course, when there is a global recession, they go with that flow. But when the next business cycle comes around, it rises with the waves.

The business cycle model I use is...

1. Market rise
2. Market bust
3. Market recovery
4. REPEAT

I believe we are in the second half of the market bust, and so, as a value investor, my objective is to buy into my long positions now, before the next business cycle comes around.

EDIT: and don't forget DRYS......My attention to diversification though, requires me to only invest in 1 dry-bulk shipping company, so I try to find the best of the best according to my model.

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Last edited by Krypton on Oct-07-2008 at 04:20

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Originally posted by Realist When the entire global economy goes to shit, i imagine you'll be on TA trying to explain yourself. Enjoy your embarrassment. I'm stocking up on canned and dry goods.

Dumb people spouting off dumb things.

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Originally posted by bas Dual exhaust tips on dual exhaust = QUAD EXHAUST = 300 gain in horsepower. Duh

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Originally posted by bas Undies with a dickhole aren't good for guys. Your balls can get caught in them. That's why I prefer to go over the gate instead of through the fence.

Oh, wait, this is a flame-an-alt thread? Well whoda thunk it. Damn you cor, damn you good.

Ummm I'm actually siding with Realist, in the nominal sense, in that we are more fucked than we realize. Fuck the dow ... the equities market is the least of our worries because it is not what is fucked up. What is completely fucked up are the money markets. To put it in simple terms, commercial paper and the commercial lending industry are completely frozen. NOBODY is lending anybody any money whatsoever because banks are not lending. Libor and Euribor have been skyrocketing over the past couple weeks. To give you an idea of how critical the money markets are, here is a VERY simplistic example of their purpose:

Let's say a company like Boeing or GE perform 1 contract at a time. Under normal business conditions this is what would happen:

Day 1 – Boeing lands an $8 billion contract of which they receive a $2 billion deposit. They stick it in a 30 day bank deposit @ 4% interest

Day 20 - they have to make payroll, pay bills, etc., to the tune of $4 billion. They end up borrowing $4b @ 4.5% interest

Day 30 - they deliver the contract and receive the remaining $6 billion. They pay back the $4b loan, and get back the $2b in cash they had sitting in the bank long with interest interest

Now this is what is happening in the current credit crisis:

day 1 - they land the contract and receive the $2 billion deposit which they put under the mattress earning no interest because they know that getting loans is scarce

day 20 - they have to make payroll, pay bills, etc., so they pay $2billion in cash from the mattress and try to borrow the other $2billion it still needs. The bank says no …. boeing says but hey guys on day 30 I'm going to get $8billion so you can lend me the money, I'm good for it ... the bank says sorry, I can't help you, not only do I not have no cash of my own to lend you, but even if you say you can pay me back, I don't want to take the risk of you failing and I lose all my principal.

day 21 - Boeing says they're going out of business because they have run out of cash, can't pay their bills, or their employees.


Large companies employ a division of treasury employees to manage their cash management operations because it gets to be so complex. That entire industry is SHUT DOWN. GE and Goldman Sachs were essentially a firesale for Buffett because they were so desperatet o secure funding. These are LARGE companies that are AAA rated ... can you imagine medium size companies who are trying to secure credit?? Shit has gotten to the point where the STATE of California and Massachusetts need a bailout by the government because they can't raise short term funding to cover their cash flows via revenue anticipation bonds by the time they see this money by Thanksgiving, Christmas, or tax season next april:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=aHVUec5r7Ejg

This shit has gotten so out of control that small countries are now failing:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=a5UX01HU3gcA

I think this financial crisis is the worst since the great depression. Fuck 87 ... fuck stagflation from the early 80s ... I think we're going to see 8 or 9% unemployment, at the very least, in the US unless we see a concerted worldwide bailout orchestrated by the fed and the ECB. This level of central bank direct involvement is unbelievable ... that should tell you how serious this shit is. Let me put it in different terms ... I have never even thought about writing a letter to my congressperson urging drastic deficit spending to do whatever it takes to avert a complete financial catastrophe ever. If you see my postings in the PDD I am a free market economist and I abhor the thought of government intervention. But I sent an email to my congressperson yesterday because I am that afraid.

I feel sooo retarded for soliciting shit like this but please contact your local politician to voice support of aggressive, and above all cooperative, fiscal and monetary policy. What is critical is the need for a global bailout initiative. Central banks are cooperating, but I fear that the governments behind them lack the political willpower to do what is needed in the face of perceived voter perceptions.

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Originally posted by occrider If you see my postings in the PDD I am a free market economist and I abhor the thought of government intervention.

yeah, i was taken quite by surprise. not so much with your opinion, but with the vehemence you expressed it in. ive never known you to be anything but a free-market enthusiast. if i was an american your post would have gotten me more than a little worried!

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Originally posted by occrider

So what do you think about this $700 billion bail out? I've never denied the economy is very bad right now. I just don't think panicking and running for the hills is a solution at this point. I see bargains everywhere.

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Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN yeah, i was taken quite by surprise. not so much with your opinion, but with the vehemence you expressed it in. ive never known you to be anything but a free-market enthusiast. if i was an american your post would have gotten me more than a little worried!

Let's just say I was VERY unhinged by a phone call I received today from a very good friend who's one of the smartest guys I know. He has been very bearish for the past 2 years and that's resulted in him making a lot of money for his company because of his trading positions. That being said, he said despite that, he was unsure he would have a job come february given aggregate circumstances with the money markets. I would be very worried if I were in any part of the world ... Iceland is very fucked, but I think that South Korea and Australia are on the chopping block as well. The Aussie Central Banks are proactively taking meausres to avert catastrophe now as well. But this needs to be worldwide for it to do anything. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...rKx8&refer=home

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Originally posted by Krypton So what do you think about this $700 billion bail out? I've never denied the economy is very bad right now. I just don't think panicking and running for the hills is a solution at this point. I see bargains everywhere.

Absolutely necessary. Let's get one thing straight, I could care less what happens to equities ... the only thing i care about is restoring normal lending in the money markets. But TARP is a day late and a dollar short imo. The fed really fucked up by letting Lehman fail. It resulted in the prime market money market fund dropping below a buck and it asserted that ANY firm can fail. That resulted in a huge flight of safety of instittutional investors to treasury backed funds. I see nothing attractive in the equities market for the simple reason that I don't see how large multinational companies can continue to fund day to day operations under reasonable rates via commercial lending under current conditions.

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Originally posted by occrider Let's just say I was VERY unhinged by a phone call I received today from a very good friend who's one of the smartest guys I know. He has been very bearish for the past 2 years and that's resulted in him making a lot of money for his company because of his trading positions. That being said, he said despite that, he was unsure he would have a job come february given aggregate circumstances with the money markets. I would be very worried if I were in any part of the world ... Iceland is very fucked, but I think that South Korea and Australia are on the chopping block as well. The Aussie Central Banks are proactively taking meausres to avert catastrophe now as well. But this needs to be worldwide for it to do anything. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...rKx8&refer=home

thanks for the link. to be honest i was too busy today to even notice that the reserve had gone for a full percentage point! all my money is tied up in real estate so i really should pay more attention!

so, is the whole world at risk because of the domino effect that began in the US, or we at risk because we have gone down a similar road re lending?

our pollies keep telling us we (aust) are in a good position to weather the storm, are we being lied to?

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