Week Ending December 5

RELEASE: Bankruptcy Filings [United States]: -3.9%
FIRST TAKE: Personal bankruptcy filings continued their descent in the third quarter, posting their fourth consecutive decline in year-over-year bankruptcy filings. Business bankruptcy filings fell at a double digit rate for the fourth time in the past five quarters, the only exception being the first quarter when a surge was caused by multiple filings by one company.

RELEASE: Employment Situation [United States]: 112,000
FIRST TAKE: The weak payroll number for number of 112,000 was indeed a surprise. Gains of more than 200,000 were expected. Not only were the November numbers weak but the totals for the prior two months were revised down. The weakness were evident across industries. The jobless rate nonetheless declined to 5.4% as the household survey again went a different direction from the payroll survey.

RELEASE: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge [United States]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. future inflation gauge (FIG) increased half a point to 118.6 in November, aided by increased borrowing and sustained job growth. In the rest of the world, where the data lag the U.S. by one month, the FIGs for most regions increased in October, with the exception of Japan. The increase in the euro-zone was especially sharp, lead by increases in Spain and Germany.

RELEASE: ISM Non-Mfg.Index [United States]: 61.3
FIRST TAKE: The ISM Non-Mfg index gained 1.5 points, climbing to 61.3 for the month of November. This marks the index's first month above the 60% threshold since July.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 132.3
FIRST TAKE: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) finished the week ending November 26 largely unchanged. The index declined slightly to 132.3 and the growth rate was flat at 0.1%.

RELEASE: Monster Employment Index [United States]: 117
FIRST TAKE: The Monster Employment Index rose by three points to 117 in November. A year ago it stood at 88. The strong reading bodes well for the November employment report to be released tomorrow.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 349,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims jumped by 25,000 to 349,000 last week. This was well above the consensus expectation. The surprising jump could be attributed to difficulty seasonally adjusting during the week of the Thanksgiving holiday. Continuing claims fell another 20,000 during the week ending November 20.

RELEASE: Factory Orders (SIO or M3) [United States]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Factory orders increased 0.5% in October, easily beating expectations for a smaller gain. A strong increase in nondurable new orders more than offset declining durable goods orders. Additionally, the September figure was revised upward enough to produce a slight gain instead of the decline previously reported.

RELEASE: Risk of Recession [United States]: 20%
FIRST TAKE: Economy.com’s probability of recession moderated further in November to 20.2%, from October’s downwardly revised 21% level. The improvement in equity markets and easing jobless claims are supporting the economy and lowering recession risks. Persistent tightening of yield spreads and falling consumer confidence are putting upward pressure on recession risks. The risk of recession remains at a stable but elevated level.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,299 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 5 billion cubic feet during the week ending November 26, a smaller decline than expected. In addition, the Energy Information Administration revised upward the storage numbers for the week ending November 19. Thus, today’s data should have a bearish impact on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States]: 1.7%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose a very weak 1.7% in November, well below expectations, according to the ICSC chain store index. Sales were below expectations for a wide range of retailers. High energy prices and concerns about outlook were among the factors hurting sales. Luxury retailers continued to post mostly better than average results.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 673.3
FIRST TAKE: The demand for mortgages declined during the week ending November 26, 2004, with the MBA index decreasing by 5.8% to 673. The refi component fell sharply, while the decline in the purchase index was more modest.

RELEASE: Personal Income [United States]: 0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Personal and disposable income rose 0.6% in October, after growing 0.2% in September. This was the fastest growth since May for personal income and April for disposable income. Wage growth accelerated to 0.5%. Consumption grew 0.7%, led by strong growth in nondurable goods spending. The saving rate fell to 0.2%.

RELEASE: ISM Index [United States]: 57.8
FIRST TAKE: The ISM manufacturing index recovered some lost ground in November, increasing 1.0 points to 57.8. A large increase in the new orders index contributed the most to the November increase and is an encouraging sign for future production.

RELEASE: Construction Spending (C30) [United States]: 0.0%
FIRST TAKE: Construction spending remained virtually unchanged in October, failing to match expectations for a modest pickup in building activity. Both private residential and nonresidential construction slipped this month while public sector construction spending showed a strong gain. The initial estimate for September was revised upward slightly to show a 0.1% gain.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 293.3 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil inventories recorded a sizable build during the week ending November 26, according to the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration while distillate fuel oil stocks rose more sharply than expected. Thus, today’s inventory data should have a significantly bearish impact on petroleum markets.

RELEASE: Vehicle Sales - AutoData [United States]: 16.4 Million
FIRST TAKE: As expected, vehicle sales declined in November to 16.4 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, down from 16.9 million in October. Sales held up somewhat better, however, than expected. Sales of Big Three brands weakened more than international brands.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 25.4%
FIRST TAKE: After falling more or less throughout much of the summer and early fall, business confidence has stabilized in recent weeks. Sentiment is currently consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3%. Attitudes have improved a bit in North America, where it remains the strongest. Asian confidence remains notably soft and is still weakening. Confidence is strongest among high-tech companies and manufacturers. Retailers are notably less upbeat. The decline in confidence since the summer peak is largely due to softer sales growth.

RELEASE: NAPM - NY Report [United States]: 319.3
FIRST TAKE: The New York City economy regained momentum in November as the Business Conditions Index (BCI) expanded roughly 1.7% from one month prior and now stands at 319.3.

RELEASE: Business Employment Dynamics [United States]: 7,745.0
FIRST TAKE: Gross employment flows for the first quarter of the year confirm the firming of the labor market. Gross jobs gains rose during the first quarter of the year to 7.745 million - the strongest pace since the third quarter of 2002 and up by 100,000 from the fourth quarter of 2003. Meanwhile, gross job losses inched up to 7.31 million. Layoff activity has fallen off dramatically since peaking at 9.13 million during the third quarter of 2001.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence [United States]: 90.5
FIRST TAKE: Consumer confidence dropped unexpectedly to 90.54 in November, from 92.89 in October. Consensus estimates called for a measurable increase. While the assessment of current conditions rose to 95.25, from 93.96, the expectations component of the index fell by 4.79 points to a reading of 87.4 - its lowest value since July 2003.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI [United States]: 65.2
FIRST TAKE: November's Chicago PMI came in at 65.2, beating consensus expectations. Nevertheless, this is a decline from last month's stellar figure.

RELEASE: Agricultural Prices [United States]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: The index covering prices received for agricultural commodities increased 0.9% in November. Farmers saw higher prices for tomatoes, eggs, hogs, strawberries and grapes. By contrast, prices dropped for lettuce, oranges, soybeans, corn and cattle.

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Retro ...

Week Ending December 12

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -1.7%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales fell 1.7% in the week ending December 4, the second consecutive sharp decline, according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth increased, to 3.3%, as comparisons eased due to severe winter weather in the Northeast in the comparable week last year.

RELEASE: Productivity and Costs [United States]: 1.8%
FIRST TAKE: Third quarter productivity was revised downward to 1.8%, a decline of 0.1% from the preliminary reading. Both output and hours were revised upward, but the increase in hours was greater, producing the slower rate of productivity growth. Also, unit labor costs were revised upward and now rose 1.8% in the third quarter.

RELEASE: Challenger Report [United States]: 104,530
FIRST TAKE: Announced job cuts, as tracked by Challenger, exceeded 100,000 for the third consecutive month. In November, cuts totaling 104,530 were announced. While cuts, which are not seasonally adjusted, generally increase during the fall months, the recent pattern is nonetheless disturbing.

RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States]: $7.7 billlion
FIRST TAKE: October consumer credit rose by $7.7 billion. Nonrevolving credit led the gain growing at a 6% annual rate, while revolving credit grew 1.8%.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 696.2
FIRST TAKE: The demand for mortgages increased during the week December 3, 2004, with the MBA index rising by 3.4% to 696. The refi component continues to fall, however; the strength is solely on the purchase index side.

RELEASE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [United States]: 18.0%
FIRST TAKE: JOLTS data reflect the strong employment numbers for October. The number of available jobs relative to the employment base rose to its highest rate of the recovery - 2.5% in October. Hire rates have trended flat this year but inched up to 3.3% in October, while the separation rate was unchanged - driving up the net numbers.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 293.9 MB
FIRST TAKE: Inventory data are mixed, but should have a neutral impact on petroleum markets overall. Commercial crude oil inventories recorded a moderate build during the week ending December 3 according to the American Petroleum Institute and according to the Energy Information Administration, while gasoline stocks recorded a sizable build. The data differ on distillate fuel oil stocks. While the API reported a decline, the EIA reported a sizable build.

RELEASE: Import and Export Prices [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Import prices rose 0.2% in November as non-petroleum import prices surged 0.7% and more than offset a 2.6% decline in petroleum import prices. Export prices rose 0.3% overall and 0.4% when volatile agricultural products are omitted.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 357,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims rose for a second week, to a reading of 357,000, well above consensus estimates. Rather than signaling a shift in labor market conditions, the increase is attributed to seasonal factors. Continuing claims rose to just under 2.8 million during the last week of November.


RELEASE: Wholesale Trade (MWTR) [United States]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Wholesale inventories grew 1.1% in October, handily beating expectations for a 0.5% gain. Sales surged 1.6% during the month, and the September figure was adjusted upward by 0.2%. The I/S ratio held steady at 1.15.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,211 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 88 billion cubic feet during the week ending December 3. The draw was slightly larger than expectations, which had called for a draw of 72 Bcf. Thus, today’s inventory data should have a moderately bullish impact on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: PPI [United States]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Producer prices for finished goods rose by 0.5% in November, surpassing expectations. Much of the monthly increase was due to higher energy prices. Excluding food and energy, finished good prices rose by only 0.2%, in line with what was expected. Inflation remains rapid at earlier stages of processing.

RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 95.7
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value for December rose by nearly three points from November, its biggest increase since June. At 95.7, the index is at its highest value since August, boosted by improvement in labor markets and declining energy prices.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 133.0
FIRST TAKE: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) expanded again during the week ending December 3, up to 133 from 132.4 one week prior. The index's growth rate also increased, from 0.2% to 0.4%.

RELEASE: Treasury Budget [United States]: -$57.9 billion
FIRST TAKE: The unified deficit for November was $58 billion, slightly larger than CBO’s preliminary estimate of $57 billion. Through the first two months of fiscal year 2005 the federal government has run a cumulative deficit of $115 billion.

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Retro ...

A good long term analysis of the effect of reckless deficit spending:

The cost of borrowing

Dec 15th 2004
From The Economist Global Agenda


The Federal Reserve has raised American interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point—its fifth hike this year. Will the federal government now do something about the cost of its borrowing?


UNLIKE most of George Bush’s White House team, for whom economics is a slave to politics, Gregory Mankiw, head of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, labours hard to square the president’s economic policies with sound economic theory. “When I wrote my first economics textbook,” he said in a speech earlier this month, “I told students to keep an eye on three indicators of economic performance: gross domestic product, inflation and the unemployment rate.” By these standards, he pointed out, the American economy is doing admirably.

The Federal Reserve seems largely to agree. On Tuesday December 14th, it raised interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point to 2.25%, its fifth rate hike this year (see chart). Output has kept up its “moderate pace”, it said, despite recent rises in energy prices. Inflation remains “well-contained”, and the jobs market continues to improve, albeit gradually. The Fed thus saw no reason to break its measured stride towards a more neutral rate of interest.


The Federal Reserve gives information on monetary policy. The US Bureau of Labour Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Treasury Department give up-to-date economic statistics and indicators. The White House sets out George Bush's economic, fiscal and budget policies, and provides official figures. The Congressional Budget Office offers alternative budget projections and statistics. The Brookings Institution publishes reports on Anerice's economy, deficits and government spending.

But Mr Mankiw’s better students know that high growth and low inflation—what economists used to call “internal balance”—are not the be all and end all of macroeconomics. Later chapters of their textbooks introduce them to “external balance”, and tell them also to keep an eye on the economy’s balance of payments with the rest of the world. By this standard, America’s economy has a real problem. According to figures released shortly before the Fed’s interest-rate decision, America’s trade deficit set a new record in October. In that month alone, America imported goods and services worth $55.5 billion more than those it exported.

Mr Mankiw neglected to mention this external imbalance in his speech, and the Fed’s rate-setting committee never mentions it in its statements. But it is on the minds of the committee’s members. According to the minutes of their June meeting, they mulled over staff projections of how this trade deficit might unfold and how it might unwind. Their staff hoped for a “benign” resolution, but could not rule out the possibility that restoring balance to America’s external accounts would involve “more wrenching changes”.

As the Fed’s chairman, Alan Greenspan, said in a speech in Frankfurt last month, America’s lack of external balance—its need to borrow huge sums from foreigners—reflects a lack of national savings. He bears no small responsibility for this dearth: tempting households to abjure thrift and embrace debt was part of his strategy for rescuing America from its recession. But, as he was anxious to point out, the most effective way to “augment” domestic saving is for America’s federal government to curb its borrowing.

How likely is that? On Wednesday, Mr Bush will explain his economic agenda for the next four years at a summit of economists and businessmen in Washington. He has, as he was keen to point out after his election victory, some “political capital” to spend. Unfortunately, he has rather less capital of the economic kind. The government’s budget was $412.6 billion in the red in the fiscal year that ended on September 30th.

Budget deficits, as Mr Mankiw has pointed out, “are a mechanism whereby one generation of taxpayers passes the buck for its spending on to future generations”. That is why they are so insidious economically, and so attractive politically. Politicians can pass the buck for their spending on to some future generation, on whose votes they do not rely.

Mr Mankiw and his boss in the White House no longer have to worry about facing the voters. Thus the president’s budget proposal for this fiscal year showed somewhat tighter fists. He requested only $388 billion for discretionary spending, excluding homeland security and defence—an increase of just 1% over the previous year. Once the cost of guns is added to the cost of butter, the deficit for this fiscal year should come to about $350 billion, or 2.8% of GDP, according to Goldman Sachs, an investment bank.

But Goldman Sachs warns of a “false dawn”. Medicare, America’s government-financed health-care programme for the aged, will start shelling out for seniors’ prescription drugs from 2006. Defence spending may not stop at 4% of GDP, as the government’s forecasters predict, but head up towards Reagan-era levels of 5-6%. And America’s politicians are unlikely to allow the Alternative Minimum Tax, which was meant to apply only to the highest earners, to ensnare ever greater numbers of taxpayers. Besides, though Mr Bush does not have to face the voters again, his allies in Congress do. Thus the fists may soon start to loosen on domestic spending. Congress is already pushing for an extra $62 billion to be added to next year’s transportation bill, which traditionally provides ample opportunities to roll out the pork-barrels in the name of building highways.

According to William Gale and Peter Orszag of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, America’s budget deficits are likely to average about 3.5% of GDP for the remainder of the decade. As the government continues to gobble up America’s scanty savings, it will crowd out the investment on which America’s prosperity depends. By 2014, reckon Messrs Gale and Orszag, the deficits will have reduced America’s wealth by roughly 20-30% of GDP. That is no good in anyone’s textbook.
http://www.economist.com/agenda/dis...tory_id=3494519

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Retro ...

Week Ending December 19

RELEASE: Retail Sales (MARTS) [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Total retail sales gained 0.1% in November, restrained by falling auto sales. Sales excluding autos rose 0.5%. Growth was led by building supply stores, gasoline stations and nonstore retailers. Core sales rose 0.5%. October’s gain was revised substantially higher, largely due to a smaller decline in auto sales than earlier reported.

RELEASE: Business Inventories (MTIS) [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Business inventories were up a tepid 0.2% in October, following a downward revised unchanged reading for September. Retail inventories declined 0.6% due to a sharp 2.3% plunge in auto inventories.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 28.5%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence has taken on a somewhat brighter hue in the past several weeks. Attitudes have improved in North America, where it remains the strongest. Asian confidence, which had tumbled this fall, also appears to be reviving. Confidence is strongest among high-tech companies and manufacturers. Retailers are notably less upbeat. Sentiment is currently consistent with a global economy that is expanding just above its potential of 3% real GDP growth.

RELEASE: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 44
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District rebounded in November, following a slight easing during the previous month. The net percentage of firms reporting year-over-year increases in production rose to 44 from 41 in October.

RELEASE: NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 29.9
FIRST TAKE: The manufacturing industry continues to boom in New York state. According to the NY Fed, the general business conditions index (BCI) increased from 18.9 to 29.9, far surpassing expectations of a much more modest increase.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 293.9
FIRST TAKE: Reports on commercial crude oil and distillate fuel oil inventories for the week ending December 10 are contradictory, but should have a neutral impact on petroleum markets. The Energy Information Administration reported a marginal draw in crude oil stocks and flat distillate inventories, while the American Petroleum Institute reported a build in crude oil stocks offset by a sizable draw in distillate stocks.

RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 71
FIRST TAKE: Builder optimism remains strong, as low mortgage rates keep demand for homes solid. The NAHB index is flat in December at about 71. The present conditions index remains flat, while the indicators of future activity, expectations and buyer traffic, are improving.

RELEASE: Current Account [United States]: -$164.7 billion
FIRST TAKE: The balance on the U.S. current account fell again in the third quarter, though not by as much as feared. According to the BEA, the current account balance fell just $300 million during Q3 to -$164.7 billion. The balance on trade in goods and services declined, while the surplus on income increased. Given the high oil prices during the quarter, the Q3 report qualifies as an upside surprise for the moderate deterioration in the balance.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 317,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims came down again last week to 317,000, following two weeks that were distorted by seasonal factors. Claims for the prior week were revised up by 3,000, to 360,000. Thus, the four-week moving average of 337,750 provides a better measure of underlying conditions. Continuing claims also fell in the week ending December 4, to 2.737 million.

RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 1.77 million
FIRST TAKE: Residential construction slowed in November, and the fall-off was far sharper than anticipated with housing starts dropping by 13% to 1.771 million annualized units. Census revised upward slightly October starts. The slowing is quite broad-based, indicating that the housing market may finally be showing signs of wear.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 3,150
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 61 billion cubic feet during the week ending December 10. The draw was slightly smaller than anticipated. Markets had expected a draw of 66 Bcf. Thus, today’s storage report will have a slightly bearish impact on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Philadelphia Fed Survey [United States]: 29.6
FIRST TAKE: Third District manufacturing activity picked up momentum in December as the topline survey from the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey came in at 29.6. The increase went against expectations for a slower pace of expansion and reverses last month's large drop.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer prices rose 0.2% in November, exceeding expectations for a smaller gain. Energy prices rose, despite the decline in crude oil prices and expectations for a decline in gasoline prices. Core inflation also increased by 0.2%, raising the annual rate of core inflation to 2.2%.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 133.6
FIRST TAKE: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) expanded again during the week ending December 10, up to 133.6 from 133.0 one week prior. The index’s growth rate increased as well, from 0.5% to 0.8%.

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Retro ...

where do you get this shit from?

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fukthaworld
i am going to have to say this again...i dont care what u think about me u r all fucking fucks!

quote:

Originally posted by x-filer where do you get this shit from?

An economics site that I subscribe to. It collates all the government indicators for nearly every country in the world so that institutional investors have a basic understanding of the state of the global economy. I don't get any analayis data that would be useful for hedging actual positions (that would likely be expensive), but I do get raw data.

ANyway I've been slacking in updating info ... I shall strive to get that done this weekened.

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Retro ...

Alright ... I've been lazy enough. Starting from last week:

Week Ending February 6

RELEASE: Agricultural Prices [United States]: -0.9%
FIRST TAKE: Prices received by farmers fell 0.9% to start off 2005. Crop prices were lower, led by commercial vegetables, oil-bearing crops, feed grains and hay, and cotton. By contrast, livestock prices edged upward by 0.8% thanks to higher prices for cattle, dairy, hogs, calves, and turkeys.

RELEASE: Personal Income [United States]: 3.7%
FIRST TAKE: Personal income rose 3.7% in December. However, growth was distorted by the $32 billion Microsoft dividend. Excluding the dividend, income grew a strong 0.6% after growing an upwardly revised 0.4% in November. Wage growth improved to 0.4%. Consumption grew 0.8%, led by strong growth in auto spending. The saving rate rose to 3.4%, distorted by the Microsoft dividend.

RELEASE: NAPM - NY Report [United States]: 331.8
FIRST TAKE: The New York City economy improved again in January as the Business Conditions Index (BCI) expanded roughly 1.9% from one month prior and now stands at 331.8.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI [United States]: 62.4
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago PMI exceeded expectations, posting a 1.2 point climb to 62.4 in January. This unanticipated increase may put upward pressure on expectations for the much-watched ISM release tomorrow.

RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States]: 1,098,000
FIRST TAKE: Sales of new homes are basically flat in December compared to the previous month. At 1.098 million units, a gain of only 0.1% from November, sales are far weaker than anticipated. Moreover, November data were revised downward by 2%.

RELEASE: Semiconductor Billings [United States]: -3.5%
FIRST TAKE: Global semiconductor sales fell by 3.5% to a level of $18.4 billion in December on a three-month moving average basis. The decline was along the lines of seasonal expectations. Over all of 2004, semiconductor sales reached a record $213 billion, growing by 28% relative to 2003.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -1.9%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales tumbled 1.9% in the week ending January 29, the biggest decline since last March according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Several factors including a later date for the Super Bowl and a New York state sales tax holiday as well as weather-related disruptions to store traffic reportedly hurt sales. Year-over-year growth fell to 2.5%, the slowest growth in seven weeks.

RELEASE: Construction Spending (C30) [United States]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Construction spending increased 1.1% in December, easily besting consensus expectations. In addition, November's decline was revised away entirely as last month's preliminary estimate was bumped up from a 0.4% drop to a 0.3% gain. All three categories of construction, private residential, nonresidential and public, posted gains in December.

RELEASE: ISM Index [United States]: 56.4
FIRST TAKE: The ISM manufacturing index dropped nearly a full point to 56.4 in January, somewhat lower than expectations. Although the overall index dropped, both the production and employment components increased as manufacturers responded to stronger orders in the months prior to January.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 706.4
FIRST TAKE: The demand for mortgages picked up during the week ending January 28, 2005, with the MBA index increasing by 7% to 706.4. The refi component of the index advanced strongly, while the purchase index was about flat. This one-week gain is not enough to move the index from its downward trend.

RELEASE: Risk of Recession [United States]: 14%
FIRST TAKE: Economy.com’s probability of recession moderated further in January to 14%, from December’s 21% level. An improvement in consumer confidence in January helped put downward pressure on recession risks. Equity markets moderated in January, putting some upward pressure on recession risks. Also, the dollar saw some strengthening in January which also weighs on the leading indicator. The risk of recession enters the New Year at a low and stable level.

RELEASE: Challenger Report [United States]: 92,351
FIRST TAKE: Planned job cuts dropped in January to 92,351, from over 100,000 during the last four months of 2004. Job cuts announcements were 21% lower than in January 2004 as well, though given the recent spate of M&A announcements, they will likely rebound in coming months.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 33.0%
FIRST TAKE: Confidence is hovering in a range established soon after the end of the U.S. presidential election. Sentiment is currently consistent with a global economy that is expanding at close to its potential of 3% real GDP growth. Attitudes are strongest in North America and Asia and less buoyant in Europe and South America. Manufacturers are the most upbeat while retailers remain pessimistic.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 295.3 MB
FIRST TAKE: Inventory data were mixed for the week ending January 28. The American Petroleum Institute reported a small build in commercial crude oil stocks and a small draw in distillate stocks, while the Energy Information Administration reported a sizable draw in distillate stocks and a small draw in commercial crude oil inventories. Both reports recorded a sizable build in gasoline stocks. Thus, today’s inventory data should be neutral for petroleum markets overall.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States]: 3.6%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose a better-than-expected 3.6% in January, according to the ICSC chain store index. The benefits of clearance sales and increased gift card giving overcame losses from severe weather, more difficult comparisons, and some minor negative calendar effects. High energy prices and concerns about outlook remained weights on sales while steady job gains were a plus. Luxury retailers continued to post mostly better-than-average results although result remained highly variable even within segments.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 316,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims declined to 316,000 last week, down from 325,000 (unrevised) in the prior week. Following the holiday distortions at the beginning of the month, claims have averaged 320,000 during the last three weeks, indicative of a palpable improvement compared to the trend prior to the holidays of about 335,000.

RELEASE: Productivity and Costs [United States]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Preliminary estimates for productivity growth showed a 0.8% (q/q annualized) increase in the fourth quarter, the smallest quarterly advance in nearly four years. This continues the trend toward slower growth that has been in place since the third quarter. Unit labor costs rose 2.3%, and were up 1.0% from a year earlier.

RELEASE: Factory Orders (M3) [United States]: 0.3%
FIRST TAKE: Factory orders increased 0.3% over the month in December, slightly below expectations. New orders for durable goods increased 1.1% after an upward revision from 0.6%, while nondurables posted a 0.6% decrease. Shipments were up 0.9%, while inventories decreased by 0.1%. Unfilled orders of durable goods were up 0.6%.

RELEASE: ISM Non-Mfg.Index [United States]: 59.2
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. service sector expansion slowed down more than expected as the ISM Non-Mfg Index fell 4.7 points to 59.2. Virtually all of the index's components showed a decline for the month of January.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,082 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas fell by 188 billion cubic feet during the week ending January 28. The draw was substantially smaller than expected as traders had anticipated a draw of 213 Bcf. Thus, today’s inventory report should add bearish momentum to natural gas markets.


RELEASE: Monster Employment Index [United States]: 120
FIRST TAKE: Online labor demand rose strongly in January to a reading of 120, from 113 in December. On a year-ago basis, the index was 27 points higher than one year ago. Of the 20 industries tracked by Monster, labor demand improved in 14 of them, with the strongest gains in management of companies, retail trade and manufacturing.


RELEASE: Employment Situation [United States]: 146,000
FIRST TAKE: Payrolls employment rose by only 146,000 in January, well below our expectation of 200,000. Goods-producing payrolls declined by 31,000, while service-producers added 177,000 jobs, up from 123,000 in December. The December total was revised down to 133,000 from 157,000. Meanwhile, the jobless rate, derived from a separate survey, fell to 5.2%.

RELEASE: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge [United States]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. future inflation gauge (FIG) rose more than a full point to 120.0 in January, pushed higher by faster loan creation and an improving labor market. Nearly all other FIGs, which trail the U.S. measure by one month, fell in response to declining commodity prices in December.

RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 95.5
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value for January was virtually unchanged from the preliminary value, dropping 0.3 points to 95.5. It remains down from December’s 97.1, though only partially reversing December’s gain. A decline in expectations of the outlook more than offset an improvement in assessments of current conditions compared to December.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 133.7
FIRST TAKE: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) saw a lift for the week ending January 28 to end at 133.7. The smoothed annualized growth rate also improved to 0.3%

RELEASE: FOMC Meeting [United States]: 2.50%
FIRST TAKE: As widely expected, the FOMC raised the fed funds rate by another 25 basis points to 2.5%. The committee continues to view the risks facing its growth and inflation outlooks as balanced. The statement also maintained that policy accommodation can continue to be removed at a “measured” pace.

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Retro ...

I know I'm a couple weeks behind but I'll get caught up this weekend ... time for bed.

Week Ending February 13

RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 103.9
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), global growth is expected to be weak during the first half of 2005. The indicator for the OECD area increased by 0.2 points in December, after increasing 0.4 points in November. The six-month rate of growth increased for the second consecutive month in December, after nine months of declines.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 134.4
FIRST TAKE: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) continued the upward trend over the week ending February 4 to reach 134.4. The smoothed annualized growth rate also rose to 1.6%.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 303,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly last week to 303,000--the lowest level since October 2000. Continuing claims, on the other hand, rose by 47,000 to 2.74 million in the week prior. The insured unemployment rate was 2.2% in the week ended January 29, up from 2.1% the prior week.

RELEASE: International Trade (FT900) [United States]: -$56.4 billion
FIRST TAKE: The nominal U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $56.4 billion in December from November’s revised $59.33 billion deficit (originally reported at $60.3 billion). December’s improvement in the deficit was largely the result of the sharpest fall in oil prices in 14 years. The trade deficit widened to a record $617.7 billion in 2004.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1906
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas fell by 176 billion cubic feet during the week ending February 4. Net withdrawals exceeded expectations by some 10 Bcf. Thus, today’s data should have a slightly bullish effect on natural gas markets, but any bullish momentum will be moderated by ample storage levels.

RELEASE: Treasury Budget [United States]: $8.7 billion
FIRST TAKE: The unified surplus for January was $9 billion, below the CBO’s preliminary estimate of a $12 billion surplus. Through the first four months of fiscal year 2005 the federal government has run a cumulative deficit of $109 billion.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 735.9
FIRST TAKE: The demand for mortgages picked up during the week ending February 2, 2005, with the MBA index increasing by 4% to 735.9. Both the refi and purchase components of the index advanced, although the refi index’s gain was particularly strong. Another sharp decline in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is behind the recent gains in the MBA index.

RELEASE: Wholesale Trade (MWTR) [United States]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Wholesale inventories grew 0.4% in December, well below expectations for a 0.9% gain. Sales were up 0.9% during the month, and the November figure was adjusted upward by 0.2%. The I/S ratio edged down to 1.14 after holding at 1.15 for six consecutive months.

RELEASE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [United States]: 10.6%
FIRST TAKE: In December, 4.49 million workers were hired while 4.28 million left their jobs either voluntarily or involuntarily. The hire rate declined slightly to 3.4%, from 3.6% in November, while the separation rate rose slightly to 3.2%, from 3.1%. The number of available jobs rose to 3.38 million.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 294.3 MB
FIRST TAKE: The Energy Information Administration recorded a small draw in commercial crude oil stocks and a sizable draw in distillate stocks for the week ending February 4. Thus, today’s data should have a slightly bullish effect on petroleum markets. The data published by the American Petroleum Institute are delayed.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 2.2%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales surged 2.2% in the week ending February 5, the biggest gain this year and more than reversing the previous week’s large decline according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Several factors boosted sales including better weather, the later date for the Super Bowl and a New York state sales tax holiday. Year-over-year growth improved modestly to 3.0%.

ELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 32.3%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence remains in a range established soon after the end of the U.S. presidential election. Sentiment is currently consistent with a global economy that is expanding at close to its potential of 3% real GDP growth. Attitudes are strongest in North America and weakest in South America. Businesses continue to invest aggressively in equipment and software. Manufacturers are the most upbeat while retailers remain pessimistic.

RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States]: $3.1 billion
FIRST TAKE: December consumer credit rose a modest $3.1 billion or 1.8% at an annual rate. However, the huge November decline was revised to show a small increase. Nonrevolving credit led growth in both December and November, although growth was modest for both revolving and nonrevolving credit.

RELEASE: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: -7
FIRST TAKE: This past January, the Richmond Fed introduced a new top line measure of manufacturing activity in the fifth district—The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. The index incorporates the shipments, new orders and employment components in the monthly surveys and is available for the entire history of the survey. The index rose from 1 to 2 from December to January, owing principally to improvements in the volume of new orders and employment measures.

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Retro ...

Week Ending February 20

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 31.4%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence is consistent with a global economy that is expanding near its potential of 3% real GDP growth. There is no indication that growth will either accelerate or slow substantially anytime through midyear. Attitudes are strongest in North America and weakest in South America. Asian business confidence is notably volatile. Businesses continue to invest aggressively in equipment and software and are absorbing new office and other space at the strongest pace since the survey began. Manufacturers are the most upbeat while retailers remain pessimistic.

RELEASE: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 37
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity eased in January, but remained strong in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. The net percentage of firms reporting year-over-year increases in production dropped from 50 in December to 37 in January.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales held on to the prior week’s gains, increasing a scant 0.1% in the week ending February 12, following a 2.2% surge the prior week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. However, significantly more difficult comparisons brought year-over-year growth down to 1.7%, the weakest growth since early July 2003.

RELEASE: NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 19.2
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in New York state moderated slightly during February as the general business conditions index (BCI) slipped from 20.1 to 19.2, unable to meet consensus expectations for a modest increase.

RELEASE: Retail Sales (MARTS) [United States]: -0.3%
FIRST TAKE: Total retail sales fell 0.3% in January, the biggest decline since August, pulled down by a sharp drop in auto sales. Sales excluding autos rose a strong 0.6%, the best growth since October. Revisions to November sales totals were minor.

RELEASE: Business Employment Dynamics [United States]: 7,857.0
FIRST TAKE: Gross job creation accelerated during the second quarter of last year, while losses stabilized. During the quarter, 7.857 million jobs were created, up from 7.745 million in the first quarter, while 7.263 million were lost, down from 7.31 million in the first quarter.

RELEASE: Business Inventories (MTIS) [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Business inventories rose 0.2% in December, following an upwardly revised 1.1% gain in November. The I/S ratio fell to a record low of 1.30.

RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 68
FIRST TAKE: Builder optimism is weakening a bit, with the NAHB topline index slipping to 68 in February from 70 in the previous month. Year-over-year comparisons are still strong, however, with a gain of about four points.


RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 732.3
FIRST TAKE: The demand for mortgages slowed during the week ending February 9, 2005, with the MBA index increasing by 0.5% to 732.3. The purchase component of the index is leading the decline, while the refi index picked up again. Low fixed rates are encouraging the recent increase in refi activity, but not enough to encourage stronger buying.

RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 2.16 million
FIRST TAKE: Residential construction activity surprised on the upside in January, with an increase in housing starts of 4.7% from December. At 2.159 million units, starts are running at their strongest pace since the 1970s. Census also revised December starts upward by 1%.

RELEASE: Industrial Production [United States]: 0.0%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production was unchanged in January, falling short of expectations for a modest increase. Furthermore, the December gain was revised downward one-tenth to 0.7%. As a result, capacity utilization fell 0.1% to 79.0%.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 296.4 MB
FIRST TAKE: Petroleum inventory data were mixed for the week ending February 11. The American Petroleum Institute reported a sizable build in commercial crude oil stocks and a substantial draw in distillate stocks, while the Energy Information Administration reported a similarly-sized draw in distillate stocks and a smaller build in commercial crude oil stocks. Both reports showed sizable additions to motor gasoline stocks. On balance, the data should be slightly bearish for petroleum markets.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Leading Indicators [United States]: -0.3%
FIRST TAKE: The leading indicators index fell 0.3% in January, falling short of consensus expectations calling for a smaller decline. However, the Conference Board noted that there were significant upward revisions to the index from August through December.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1808 Bcf.
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas fell by 98 billion cubic feet during the week ending February 11. Traders had anticipated a draw of 115 Bcf for the week. Thus, today’s data should have a moderately bearish effect on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Philadelphia Fed Survey [United States]: 23.9
FIRST TAKE: The expansion in Third District manufacturing activity regained momentum in February, as the topline diffusion index climbed 10.7 points to 23.9, easily besting the consensus and Economy.com forecast. However, despite some month-to-month volatility, the index has shown a slower pace of expansion in the region's manufacturing sector than the summer.


RELEASE: PPI [United States]: 0.3%
FIRST TAKE: Producer prices for finished goods rose by 0.3% in January, largely matching expectations. Excluding food and energy products, however, producer prices rose much faster than what was called for in the outlook. Prices for finished energy goods unexpectedly dropped, and prices for core finished goods rose by 0.8% on the month. Inflation remained rapid among core intermediate goods as well.

RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 94.2
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value for February fell slightly to 94.2 from January’s 95.5, the index’s second consecutive small decline. The expectations component of the index paced the decline.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 134.3
FIRST TAKE: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) held firm during the week ending February 11 to remain at 134.3. The smoothed annualized growth rate increased to 1.9% from a downwardly revised 1.5%.

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Retro ...

Week Ending February 27


RELEASE: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence [United States]: 104.0
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell 1.1 points in February to 104. However, the January reading was revised up from 103.4 to 105.1. The present situation component of the index gained for the fourth consecutive month, while the expectations component declined for the second consecutive time.

RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 33.2%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence has remained sturdy and steady so far this year. It is currently consistent with global real GDP growth of near its 3% potential. Confidence appears to be steadily firming in North America and Europe, while weakening in Asia. Sentiment in South America remains unchanged. Businesses continue to invest aggressively in equipment and software and are absorbing new office and other space at the strongest pace since the survey began. Manufacturers are the most upbeat while retailers remain pessimistic.

RELEASE: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 4
FIRST TAKE: The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 4 in February from a value of 2 the month before, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activity in the Fifth Federal district.

RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 727.9
FIRST TAKE: The demand for mortgages slowed slightly during the week ending February 18, 2005, with the MBA index decreasing by 0.6% to 727.9. The purchase index is leading the decline, while the refi index is flat. Rising mortgage interest rates are quelling the demand for mortgages.

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales remained virtually unchanged for the second consecutive week, declining a scant 0.1% in the week ending February 19, following a similarly sized increase the previous week, according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth remained weak at 1.8%, slightly above the prior week’s 1.7%, which was the weakest growth since early July 2003.

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: The consumer price index rose 0.1% in January and was held back by the second straight monthly decline in energy prices. Core inflation rose 0.2% and has increased 2.3% over the last year.

RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 312,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to 312,000 last week. Claims for the prior week were revised up by 1,000 to 303,000. Despite the increase, claims remain very low and are indicative of an improving labor market. Due to the very low claims of recent weeks, the four-week moving average fell to 308,750, the lowest average since November 2000.

RELEASE: Durable Goods (Advance) [United States]: -0.9%
FIRST TAKE: Durable goods orders declined 0.9% in January, following a upwardly revised 1.4% increase in December. New orders for nondefense capital goods rose 0.2% over the month. Shipments increased by 1.5% in January. Unfilled orders declined by 0.2% in January and inventories were up 0.9% over the month.

RELEASE: Chicago Fed National Activity Index [United States]: 0.21
FIRST TAKE: January's reading of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index posted at +0.29. This positive reading is considerably below December's upwardly revised +0.59.

RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States]: 41
FIRST TAKE: An increase in help wanted advertising indicates that hiring activity may be accelerating this year. The Conference Board's help wanted index gained three points in January, rising to a reading of 41. It was 38 a year ago. The index increased in eight out of the nine U.S. regions during the past three months; it declined only in the Pacific region.

RELEASE: Internet Sales (E-Commerce Sales) [United States]: 18.4 billion
FIRST TAKE: Seasonally adjusted e-commerce sales rose to $18.4 billion in the fourth quarter. Year-over-year growth continues to slowly moderate, however, and now sits at 22% with respect to the same quarter a year ago. Internet sales' share of total retail sales excluding restaurant sales increased to almost 2% in the fourth quarter.

RELEASE: Monthly Mass Layoffs [United States]: 1,457
FIRST TAKE: In January, employers took 1,457 mass layoff actions involving 150,990 workers. The number of layoff events rose in January by 246 from December and the number of initial claims rose by 31,341 over the month. The layoffs were concentrated in the manufacturing industry and in the Midwest region of the country.

RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1720 Bcf.
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 88 billion cubic feet during the week ending February 18. The draw was slightly smaller than anticipated. Thus, today’s data should have a marginally bearish effect on natural gas markets.

RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 297.0 MB
FIRST TAKE: U.S. Inventory data for petroleum released by the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration for the week ending February 18 are contradictory. Overall, the reports should be neutral for petroleum markets. The EIA reported a small build in crude stocks, but a draw in distillate stocks, while the API reported a build in distillate stocks, but a sizable draw in crude inventories. Both reports showed substantial increases in motor gasoline stocks.

RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States]: 6.8 Million
FIRST TAKE: Against expectations, sales of existing homes dropped in January, the second consecutive decline. Despite the drop in the number of sales, the months of inventory is descending, as fewer homeowners put their homes up for sale. House-price appreciation also remains very strong. The level of sales activity remains quite high as well. The National Association of Realtors has rebenchmarked the sales data to the 2000 Census. The revised data show a lower level of activity, but growth patterns remain the same. NAR is also now reporting condo data on a monthly basis.

RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 133.9
FIRST TAKE: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) saw a slight dip over the week ending February 18 to end at 133.9. The smoothed annualized growth rate rose from 1.9 in the prior week to 2.1.

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Retro ...