There is a great chance there is life out there. But then calculate the chances of them a, getting here....remember when calculating these probabilities of life it includes everything, even the places we can't see....b, that when they got here, they are hidding someplace....where the hell did they pick tent at?



again, I point to my theory of fear of the unknown, parsimony is on my side :P, it is much easier to make the illusion of aliens and fast spaceships than to actually have them.

So, the time is arriving, the draconians and their scionistic soldiers have already started to show their face. People fear not, the "epsilon eleusis" from andromeda is approaching as well , the ancient promise will be kept...

Crap I can't find it right now...I'll try to do it from memory as best I can. Only thing is, I don't remember his starting number, but I remember his finishing number...I think

100,000,000,000 galaxies in the universe. Let's say 1% of the galaxies have solar systems.

1,000,000,000 solar systems. Let's say 1% of these have planets capable of supporting life.

10,000,000 Planets capable of supporting life. Let's say 1% of these planets actually DO support life.

100,000 Planets with life. Let's say 1% of these planets are actually useful to our UFO purposes and support intelligent life.

1,000 Planets with intelligent life on them.

According to this model, we are left with 1000 planets in the universe that have intelligent life on them. Of course, what's to say it's 1% all the way down the chain?


That was the gist of his argument. I might not have gotten it perfectly because I did it from memory - all I remembered were the last 2 steps, the 1% thing, and the final number...so I just worked backwards.

quote:

Originally posted by Tranc3 Crap I can't find it right now...I'll try to do it from memory as best I can. Only thing is, I don't remember his starting number, but I remember his finishing number...I think 100,000,000,000 galaxies in the universe. Let's say 1% of the galaxies have solar systems. 1,000,000,000 solar systems. Let's say 1% of these have planets capable of supporting life. 10,000,000 Planets capable of supporting life. Let's say 1% of these planets actually DO support life. 100,000 Planets with life. Let's say 1% of these planets are actually useful to our UFO purposes and support intelligent life. 1,000 Planets with intelligent life on them. According to this model, we are left with 1000 planets in the universe that have intelligent life on them. Of course, what's to say it's 1% all the way down the chain? That was the gist of his argument. I might not have gotten it perfectly because I did it from memory - all I remembered were the last 2 steps, the 1% thing, and the final number...so I just worked backwards.

ah yes...that's what it was...my numbers were waaaaaaay off hehehe...and i'm pretty sure that 1,000 was his finishing number too...

The numbers were way off compared to what? Sagans guesswork?

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quote:

Originally posted by Radagast The numbers were way off compared to what? Sagans guesswork?

He stated that he had seen it in Astronomy class, and was wondering if someone else could properly explain it.

I wouldn't call it guesswork, I'd call it educated guesswork. As was Floorfiller's original post.

quote:

Originally posted by Radagast The numbers were way off compared to what? Sagans guesswork?

well obviously someone like Carl Sagan or Stephen Hawking knows a little bit more about the universe than i do...i remember seeing the thing that Tran3 posted, but forgot how it worked...

yeah there is a huge huge fundamental flaw in sagans reasoning, that is, it is all guess work based on intuitive appeal.


whose to say it is 1%. do we know all the galaxies in the universe? and how can we say 1% have life.


I wouldn't put too much weight on Sagan's opinion.

quote:

Originally posted by Boomer187 yeah there is a huge huge fundamental flaw in sagans reasoning, that is, it is all guess work based on intuitive appeal. whose to say it is 1%. do we know all the galaxies in the universe? and how can we say 1% have life. I wouldn't put too much weight on Sagan's opinion.

the model isn't to show that there are 1,000 other planets of life, but instead to suggest a line of reasoning that brings us to a conclusion that it is possible...the numbers aren't important...its the concept...

Ok why the fuck do you people asume it was Amrican technology....WHy cant it be Mexican.You people underestimate the maxicans.

Let me remind u at one time Aztec and Mayan technology was far more advance than....any thing in the world.Ok Ancient Egyptian's was some what the same.

And dont even go there with Aztec and Mayan Astrology (is that a word)
They were ahead of every ancient Civilization when it came to astrology.

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Mexico had an airforce before the US did.

1915

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