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Skipper
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: May 2002
Location:

Interesting piece in the globe today on the merits of a stimulus plan and how it works. I've spent most of my day reviewing the details from yesterday (work related stuff) and it's more energy focused than I expected. Everyone's talking about infrastructure, but it's mostly energy efficiency/independence and tax cuts.
quote:

Sizing up economic stimulus
What's the best way to stimulate? There's a new consensus that stimulus is needed, but the question is how. Kerry Stirton examines the debate

From Friday's Globe and Mail

January 16, 2009 at 7:24 AM EST

Kerry Stirton, a New York-based investment manager formerly of Goldman Sachs, is a long-time student of macroeconomic trends and financial public policy. Each week he will examine a facet of the current economic situation, reviewing the best thinking on the topic, filtered by his own. Today, he begins by reviewing the matter of stimulus, central to the debate in Washington and Ottawa.

Milton Friedman would not approve.

The U.S. free-markets economist and Nobel recipient once famously said: "If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in five years there'd be a shortage of sand."

But he's no longer around to condemn the current enthusiasm for government stimulus, which suddenly enjoys a remarkably broad consensus. The current basic approach in Washington and in New York proceeds this way: "What's Plan A? Answer: Massive fiscal stimulus. What if it doesn't work; what's Plan B? Answer: More massive stimulus."

The questions that economists and politicians are really grappling with right now are occurring at a different level of emphasis:

How much stimulus is enough?

How much of a multiplier on spending can we expect?

Are direct spending programs more or less effective than tax cuts?

At precisely what should the direct spending be targeted?

When will we see the benefits?

This is where the differences start to emerge, in both economic theory and in political practice.

The Democrats - with Barack Obama and the director of the National Economic Council, Lawrence Summers, in the lead - tend to favour large-scale direct spending programs on projects they conceive as multiplier-rich public goods: hospital and school infrastructure, clean energy technology, highway and transmission line construction. These are areas where they think the private sector would not be stepping up, especially in this under-capacity economy.

The main arguments are that direct spending can target long-term, strategically beneficial priorities, yet get three to four million people back to work quickly, according to the president-elect. The programs cannot be hijacked into savings accounts or stuck under mattresses as tax credits can be. Invoked as supportive authority for this approach are John Maynard Keynes and the reinvestment programs of the Thirties and the period around the Second World War spawned by Keynes's thinking. That said, the proposed program is a real political compromise that throws together a large tax cut of about $300-billion with nearly $500-billion in direct spending.

Republican economists tend to agree that a sizable stimulus is needed, but prefer monetary tools and tax cuts. They think direct spending is misdirected and slow. They see such spending as inevitably wasteful because it comes in a pressured and artificial manner, and is not allocated by pricing mechanisms in the market; with lower multiplier effects than tax cuts. They prefer tax cuts, because in theory they could start going to work as soon as they are passed into law, as people should know they have more take-home income.

But regardless of left-right balance, most economists will acknowledge that even if a spending program's multiplier effects are reasonably positive, the effect unavoidably lags. Promises of millions of created jobs in the very short term are probably not well grounded. As Anthony Karydakis, former chief U.S. economist for JP Morgan Asset Management, now teaching at Columbia University, states:

"The potential of such a package to turn the economy around in any meaningful way in 2009 is actually quite limited. In fact, it is nearly impossible to alter the trajectory of economic activity over the next two to three quarters, fiscal stimulus or not. ... Over that time frame, the economy will simply do what it is already on track to do, which is essentially to experience additional contraction."

So, more specific and nuanced arguments are now coming into the discussion, and presumably there will be more in the next few weeks. A group of 49 Nobel recipients has recently weighed in with their support for the Obama program, with their own twist. Citing the high state of readiness of thousands of already approved scientific research programs that are just waiting to find some money and hire staff, they contend that the "science multiplier" is higher than other multipliers and argue that well-paid jobs will arise, virtually immediately, in ways that will induce private capital to be invested in the eventual commercial applications, while the resulting discoveries improve the competitive advantage of the nation in all sorts of unseen ways. As two of them have written: "Money could be spent within weeks of passage of a stimulus to fund the many highly rated applications that have been waiting for support in 2008 and to restore dollars from funded grants in recent years." That a dollar spent on a new asphalt covering is worth the same as a dollar spent on scientific research does seem a stretch. Still, there are many views on multiplier coefficients out there. Harvard professor Greg Mankiw cites as authority on this issue a recent study by Valerie A. Ramey, an economist at the University of California. Looking at U.S. history, Prof. Ramey estimates that each dollar of government spending boosts GDP by only 1.4 dollars. You get 40 cents extra in private-sector spinoff activity for every dollar spent by government, whereas Prof. Ramey sees tax cuts having more than twice that kind of multiplier outcome over time. Others on the other side of the spectrum have this relative effectiveness assessment reversed. It turns out, however, that last year's Nobel laureate in economics, Paul Krugman, does not see the multiplier much differently, at 1.5 times. But the challenges of direct-spending efficacy have him arguing for even more aggressive use of the public purse. In his strongly worded opinion, and not without its basic logic:

"Given sufficient demand for its output, America would produce more than $30-trillion worth of goods and services over the next two years. But with both consumer spending and business investment plunging, a huge gap is opening up between what the American economy can produce and what it's able to sell. And the Obama plan is nowhere near big enough to fill this "output gap" .... Even the CBO [Congressional Budget Office] says that 'economic output over the next two years will average 6.8 per cent below its potential.' This translates into $2.1-trillion of lost production. ... to close a gap of more than $2-trillion - possibly a lot more, if the budget office projections turn out to be too optimistic. ... The bottom line is that the Obama plan is unlikely to close more than half of the looming output gap, and could easily end up doing less than a third of the job."

Against this backdrop, the methods and the magnitudes of the stimulus are the key issues, and have become more controversial with each passing day. Lobbyists for often-conflicting special interests have been marching hard through Congress this week. And with the TARP bailout a fresh sore spot, temperatures are rising again. Congress balked last fall in the first vote for the financial rescue. It seems increasingly conceivable that a snag might occur to forestall quick passage of Mr. Obama's American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan.

Old Post Jan-16-2009 17:40  Canada
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SniFFleS
Suspended User



Registered: Jan 2004
Location: Toronto

i was in the globe yesterday for the CFP.

Old Post Jan-17-2009 07:34  Canada
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Skipper
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: May 2002
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by SniFFleS
i was in the globe yesterday for the CFP.


Congrats!

Old Post Jan-17-2009 13:11  Canada
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darcnight
tranceaddict in training



Registered: Jul 2007
Location: toronto

quote:
Originally posted by Spam
"Clinton Democrats are to blame for the credit crunch
Dennis Sewell
Wednesday, 1st October 2008

Our current financial turmoil is not the fault of greedy bankers, says Dennis Sewell. In fact, the banks were bullied into lowering their lending standards by left-wing idealists intent on equal opportunities at any cost

‘Let us be clear: this is a crisis caused on Wall Street,’ insisted Speaker Nancy Pelosi in her consensus-strangling speech on Monday, shortly before her fellow members of the House of Representatives voted to reject the President’s $700 billion bail-out plan. Out on the campaign trail, Barack Obama ventured that the root cause of the trouble in the markets was that ‘too many people in Washington and Wall Street weren’t minding the store’.

Pinning the blame for the crisis on greedy bankers and incompetent regulators may have seemed plausible enough during the turmoil of the past few days. Writing in The Spectator last week, the Archbishop of Canterbury noted how ‘we find ourselves talking about capital or the market almost as if they were individuals, with purposes and strategies, making choices, deliberating reasonably about how to achieve aims’. Not this week, we didn’t. We talked about the markets as if they were thoroughly unreasonable, out of control, perhaps even raving mad. Following Monday’s rejection of the bail-out plan, stock markets, impatient with Congress’s delay in tying up a deal, threw a massive hissy fit, which wiped billions off the value of shares. The next day, they made a partial bounce back, based presumably upon a belated recognition that talks to thrash out another bail-out plan were already in progress. Meanwhile, the sullen banks remained obdurate in their reluctance to lend to one another, let alone anyone else, despite a massive injection of liquidity from central bankers around the world. Not much there to inspire confidence in the system.

Consequently, this hardly seems the most appropriate moment to mount a defence of capitalism in general, and American bankers in particular, against the threats posed by meddlesome politicians and excessive regulation. But, what the heck. Unless we take advantage of this hiatus between the crashing of financial institutions to take an honest look at the origins of our current predicament, then today’s spin and myth-making will quickly harden into tomorrow’s firm conviction. Let us be clear: this crisis was not caused on Wall Street — it was caused in the White House. The root problem was not financial — it was political, and those truly responsible for this fiasco were not bankers, nor even Bush Republicans; they were Clinton Democrats.

For generations, America’s bankers have been firmly refusing credit to those they judged unworthy of it. Yet the mountain of toxic subprime debt that has threatened to overwhelm the entire financial system, and the astonishing number of mortgage foreclosures across the United States, is proof that, at some point in the relatively recent past, bankers radically altered their behaviour and began to shower mortgages on borrowers who had no realistic prospect of keeping up their repayments. What could possibly have induced them to act so recklessly, and so out of character? The facile answer to that question is greed, the lure of a fast and easy buck. The correct answer is that banks were bullied, cajoled and coerced into lowering their lending standards by politicians in pursuit of an ideological agenda.

Let’s wind back to 1993 and Roberta Achtenberg’s arrival on the Washington political scene. Achtenberg had made her name in San Francisco as a civil rights lawyer and activist, campaigning to keep open the city’s gay bathhouses, and (I promise I’m not making this up) pressing for an increase in the number of gay Scoutmasters. Bill Clinton offered her a job in his new administration, and Roberta Achtenberg became the first openly lesbian nominee ever to receive a Senate confirmation. She duly took up her post as Assistant Secretary for Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity at the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

The main thrust of the Clinton housing strategy was to increase home ownership among the poor, and particularly among blacks and Hispanics. White House aides, in familiar West Wing style, could parrot the many social advantages that would accrue: high levels of home ownership correlated with less violent crime, better school performance, a heightened sense of commun-ity. But standing in the way of the realisation of this dream were the conservative lending policies of the banks, which required such inconvenient and old-fashioned things as cash deposits and regular repayments — things the poor and minorities often could not provide. Clinton told the banks to be more creative.

Meanwhile, Ms Achtenberg, a member of the kickass school of public administration, was busy setting up a network of enforcement offices across the country, manned by attorneys and investigators, and primed to spearhead an assault on the mortgage banks, bringing suits against any suspected of practising unlawful discrimination, whether on the basis of race, gender or disability. Achtenberg believed racism was a big factor in keeping minorities from enjoying the same level of home ownership as whites. She doubted if much could be done to change people’s attitudes on racial matters, but she was confident she, in cahoots with Attorney General Janet Reno, could use the law to change the behaviour of banks.

However, when little or no overt or deliberate racial discrimination was discovered among the mortgage lenders, HUD’s investigators turned to trying to prove ‘disparate treatment’ of minority groups, a notion similar to that of unintentional ‘institutional racism’. If a bank refused loans to proportionally more black applicants than white ones, for instance, the onus would fall on it to prove it had good grounds for doing so or face settlement penalties running into millions of dollars. A series of highly publicised cases were brought on this basis, starting in 1994. Eventually the investigators would turn somewhat desperately to ‘disparate impact’, a form of discrimination so abstract and rarefied as to be imperceptible to its supposed victims, and indeed often only discernible at all through the application of multivariate regression analysis to information stored on regulators’ databases. In fact, by 1995 Achtenberg was actually having to rein in her zealots, issuing a clarification that the use of the phrase ‘master bedroom’ in a property advertisement was, despite its clear patriarchal and slave-owning resonances, not actually an actionable offence under the anti-discrimination laws.

These mortgage banks, which have been responsible for issuing about three quarters of the dodgy subprime loans that are proving troublesome today, quickly took the hint. From the mid-1990s they began to abandon their formerly rigorous lending criteria. Mortgages were offered with only 3 per cent deposit requirements, and eventually with no deposit requirement at all. The mortgage banks fell over one another to provide loans to low-income households and especially to minority customers. In the five years from 1994 to 1999, the number of African-American and Latino homeowners increased by two million.

The national banks, responsible for the remaining quarter of the current subprime loans, were put under a different kind of pressure by the Clinton team to boost their low-income and minority lending too. Changes were made to the Community Reinvestment Act to establish a system by which banks were rated according to how much lending they did in low-income neighbourhoods. A good CRA rating was necessary if a bank wanted to get regulators to sign off on mergers, expansions, even new branch openings. A poor rating could be disastrous for a bank’s business plan. It was a different kind of coercion, but just as effective. At the same time, the government pressed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the two giants of the secondary mortgage market, to help expand mortgage loans among low and moderate earners, and introduced new rules allowing the organisations to get involved in the securitisation of subprime loans. The first package was launched in 1997 in collaboration with Bear Stearns.

So, by the end of the 20th century most of the ingredients that would combine to cause today’s subprime crisis were already in place. Nevertheless, the 1990s can seem a long time ago, and to grasp the connection between the situation then and what is happening now, it’s important to realise that only a small proportion of the subprime loans made since George W. Bush became President have gone to new, first-time buyers. A huge number of them have been refinancing loans, replacing mortgages originally taken out perhaps eight, ten or 12 years ago.

Imagine yourself in the place of one of those low-income householders who acquired a property in the late 1990s as a result of the Clinton home-ownership drive. What happened next? Chances are you managed OK for a while, but after a few years found that like most poor Americans, your income wasn’t going up, it was declining. Around 2003, with your credit cards maxed out, you desperately needed to release some equity from your home. Luckily there was equity there to release, so you refinanced for the first time and enjoyed having some real money for a change. A couple of years later a pushy mortgage broker called to suggest you do it all again, squeezing out the last drops of equity and opting for a low-start mortgage. So you did — and that was fine while it lasted, but the interest rate just sky-rocketed. You will never pay off that loan, it is pure poison to you, just like it’s pure poison to the investment bank that ended up with it on its books. You will just walk away. It’s not your fault. It’s not the bank’s fault. And it certainly isn’t George W. Bush’s fault — every attempt he has made to reform the mortgage market has been blocked by Congressional Democrats.

So that’s how we get from there to here, from crude attempts at social engineering during the early, heady days of the first Clinton administration to the turmoil on Wall Street today. There may be many technical lessons to be learned about selling and buying mortgages, about the best ways to price and manage risk, and about the regulation of financial markets, but I believe the most important lesson of all is an ethical one: it’s about not behaving ruthlessly when trying to change the world for the better.

Bill Clinton’s team, like so many progressives here in Britain, were not content to wait and see what fruits equal opportunities might bring. They felt compelled to secure their equal outcomes by any means necessary, even if that meant debauching institutions, corrupting professions and trying to skew the operation of markets. That only ever leads to chaos."


...

Please dont post someones opinion as fact.

not trying to be rude...wanna sum it up for me...in your own words?

I mean...blaming the poor and black people? who ACCOUNT FOR LESS THAN 7% OF THE OUTSTANDING MORTGAGES?...thats not coming from some "left-wing" columnists mouth..its coming from the mortgage bankers association.

Thank You Come Again.

Old Post Jan-17-2009 15:17  Canada
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DigiNut
You kids get off my lawn!



Registered: Dec 2002
Location: Toronto, Self-proclaimed Centre of the Universe

quote:
Originally posted by darcnight
I mean...blaming the poor and black people? who ACCOUNT FOR LESS THAN 7% OF THE OUTSTANDING MORTGAGES?

Where do you get 7% from? You haven't even stated an exact definition of "poor".

In any event, it doesn't take a very high percentage of defaulters to hurt a lender, especially if they default after just a few years or sooner. That's why they have credit checks.

When businesses fail, it's rarely if ever due to a lack of regulation.


___________________
My party schedule:
2009-02-21 - DJ Attention @ I'm So Popular
2009-06-18 - DJ Annoying @ People Need To Know Where I'll Be
2012-11-32 - DJ Insufferable ɸ Or At Least the Stalkers I Complain About
2048-06-66 - Spastic & Whocares Although I'm Actually Flattered
9999-45-81 - Tweaker Gimp I Probably Won't Even Go To This But I Have To Make Sure I Fill Up All The Available Space Here

Old Post Jan-17-2009 23:52  Canada
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tonybologna
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: May 2005
Location: Yes maam

I approve:
1. The effort to rebuild the infrastructure in this country. For pete's sake I-90 bridge in Cleveland is collapsing and two lanes are closed. I would like to see him go even further with a national MAGLEV.
2. Healthcare reform

I do not approve:
1. Summers and Rubin as his financial advisors. They lobbied for deregulation of derivatives. Now they are going to fix it? Rubin ran Citi into the ground and profited nicely from it.
http://solari.com/blog/?p=2006
2. William J Lynn III as Deputy Secretary of defense. $3.3 trillion was lost under his watch from 2000-2001.
http://solari.com/blog/?p=1983
3. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, who is destroying the sytem of compulsary public education in this country via militarized Charter schools. At the end we could have a system of private schools for the wealthy, a few good public schools if you live in wealthy areas, or charter schools for everyone else.
4. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack who supports GMOs and big agri-farms. No help to the small farmer will come under this guy.
5. His choice of Eric Holder for Attorney General. This article speaks for itself:
http://www.counterpunch.org/murillo11192008.html
6. The list goes on.

http://www.sliderontheblack.com/fed...r-the-nwo-gold/


___________________
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Old Post Jan-18-2009 01:41  United States
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Spam
OMG Hai2U!



Registered: Dec 2004
Location: Mississauga, Ontario

quote:
Originally posted by darcnight
...

Please dont post someones opinion as fact.

not trying to be rude...wanna sum it up for me...in your own words?

I mean...blaming the poor and black people? who ACCOUNT FOR LESS THAN 7% OF THE OUTSTANDING MORTGAGES?...thats not coming from some "left-wing" columnists mouth..its coming from the mortgage bankers association.

Thank You Come Again.


Did you even read the article? It's not the poor to blame, although they shouldn't have been so foolish in committing to mortgages they couldn't afford in the first place.

The problem is that the banks were pressured into taking on customers who really couldn't afford to pay, and that's led to this current crisis. And that IS fact, not opinion.


___________________
Captain Planet is gey.
Water, Fire, Earth, Wind, Heart???
These forces are supposed to combine to create Captain Planet?
Bullshit.
Those forces combine to create a soaking, boiling mudstorm on Valentine's Day.

Old Post Jan-18-2009 19:59  Canada
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DigiNut
You kids get off my lawn!



Registered: Dec 2002
Location: Toronto, Self-proclaimed Centre of the Universe

quote:
Originally posted by tonybologna
I do not approve:
1. Summers and Rubin as his financial advisors. They lobbied for deregulation of derivatives. Now they are going to fix it? Rubin ran Citi into the ground and profited nicely from it.
http://solari.com/blog/?p=2006
2. William J Lynn III as Deputy Secretary of defense. $3.3 trillion was lost under his watch from 2000-2001.
http://solari.com/blog/?p=1983
3. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, who is destroying the sytem of compulsary public education in this country via militarized Charter schools. At the end we could have a system of private schools for the wealthy, a few good public schools if you live in wealthy areas, or charter schools for everyone else.
4. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack who supports GMOs and big agri-farms. No help to the small farmer will come under this guy.
5. His choice of Eric Holder for Attorney General. This article speaks for itself:
http://www.counterpunch.org/murillo11192008.html

Haha, you make it sound like he's a truer Republican than Bush was. For the sake of all Americans I can only hope that you're right.


___________________
My party schedule:
2009-02-21 - DJ Attention @ I'm So Popular
2009-06-18 - DJ Annoying @ People Need To Know Where I'll Be
2012-11-32 - DJ Insufferable ɸ Or At Least the Stalkers I Complain About
2048-06-66 - Spastic & Whocares Although I'm Actually Flattered
9999-45-81 - Tweaker Gimp I Probably Won't Even Go To This But I Have To Make Sure I Fill Up All The Available Space Here

Old Post Jan-18-2009 21:43  Canada
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PressPLay
Connoisseur of Beauty



Registered: Feb 2006
Location: Round & round

Don't have work tomorrow and I feel like watching the inauguration live, but not at home. Anyone know of any public places where they are screening this historic event? If it wasn't freezing and winter it would probably held at Yonge-Dundas Square.


___________________
Paul: Supermodels are beautiful girls, Will. A beautiful girl can make you dizzy, like you've been drinking Jack and Coke all morning. She can make you feel high full of the single greatest commodity known to man - promise. Promise of a better day. Promise of a greater hope. Promise of a new tomorrow. This particular aura can be found in the gait of a beautiful girl. In her smile, in her soul, the way she makes every rotten little thing about life seem like it's going to be okay. The supermodels, Willy? That's all they are. Bottled promise. Scenes from a brand new day. Hope dancing in stiletto heels.

Old Post Jan-20-2009 01:44  Canada
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infinity HiGH
groovin



Registered: Oct 2001
Location: west side T.O

quote:
Originally posted by DigiNut
Maybe there's a different way to interpret that? To me it sounds like you're saying that he'll be following the agenda of the corporations and power elite (and therefore, that any poor decisions he makes will be a result of that).

Am I missing something?


Not necessarily following their agenda (although it's not like that is COMPLETELY out of the question) but his options will be limited by them. He preaches all these great things now but in reality there's more people out there than just him that have a say in how things are run in the USA. Or any other country for that matter.

Then I may be wrong. Heck, I hope I'm wrong. But a politician is a politician. They're all friends scratching eachothers' backs and returning favours, etc etc.

Last edited by infinity HiGH on Jan-20-2009 at 05:56

Old Post Jan-20-2009 05:49  Poland
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T_ALI
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Feb 2004
Location: Mississauga

So, its been one year! What do you guys think? Did he live up to the hype or does he need more time?

Old Post Jan-21-2010 03:58  Canada
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LKD
Omni-peasant



Registered: Aug 2001
Location: Its June 18th, 2005, I'm at the Skybar

all I see is that a year later, the hype is still strong but nothing's changed.


___________________
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Soundcloud sampler: www.soundcloud.com/elkdee

Old Post Jan-21-2010 04:04  United Arab Emirates
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