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| quote: | Originally posted by speedracer_mec
I feel the opposite
Something tells me that Kerry is going to win this election even though Im hoping Bush would. |
Just out of curiousity, why do you feel this way?
To be fair, I'll outline why I think Bush has a better than average chance to win ATM-
1. The Repubs. have their campaign strategy down tight. In all honesty, they know how to play the election campaign game better. Though the Dems. are catching on, they still lag behind.
It's not about reality, it's all about the sales pitch. The Repubs. are better salesmen at present.
2. Within their sales pitch, the Repubs. and Bush have played the protective "dad" role surprisingly well. During the Rep. Convention, Bush masterly crafted his speech and other speeches towards instilling fear within the citizens of the "big bad wolf". I certainly do not downplay this fear, and it certainly is justified, but the catch is this - citizens historically feel more comfortable with an incumbent President IF they have something great enough to fear. Bush knows this, and they played on this fear tactic very well (and will continue to do so).
3. The smear campaign by Rove and his buds have worked splendidly well, once again. This whole fiasco about Bush in the National Guard has come too little, too late, and will not receive near as much attention as Kerry in Vietnam. Despite my personal feelings on the merit of each candidate's background, I think the public has grown tired of this crud altogether. This works completely in Bush's favor, because they drew blood and attention on Kerry first. Bush's National Guard status, which SHOULD land him in a heap of trouble (both legally and politically), will likely only get at most a week's worth of playing time. Hardly the comparison to the 3 weeks or so of Kerry being smeared.
4. Bush is likely going to skip out on 1 debate, which will be in his favor. Everyone knows Bush has numerous speaking/speech issues, and open debates with his opponent, who is clearly a better speaker, will only exacerbate his communication weakness.
5. IF (and this is a big "if") the economy for the month of September picks up, or at least has a moderately better month than August, Bush will have yet another selling point. And this selling point is Kerry's strength. If the economy has a great September, the wind could fall right out of Kerry's sails completely. The October numbers will likely be in AFTER the Nov. 2nd vote, so October will likely not be in the picture (Occ, any idea here?).
6. He's going to continue to ignore the Iraq issue, UNLESS things drastically improve over the next month, which at current pace is doubtful. Although this is currently a favorable point to Bush, I think Kerry is selling the Iraqi War as a failure pretty well, esp. as an economic standpoint. By ignoring this, Bush is allowing the point to likely be a wash between him and Kerry.
7. Ignore the problems arising with Medicare. This is a serious weakness of Bush, even though he passed the Bill. I suspect Kerry will also nail him on this hard, esp. the fact that $400 million was suppressed from the final cost by the Administration. Most seniors do not favor this Bill, nor do they understand it very well. And finally, the 17% increase, the highest in 40 yrs. is truly not going to favor Bush at all. Bush's best bet is to briefly brush over the "good" parts of this (or embellish it, whichever you wish to look at it), and ignore the consequences. So far, he is doing exactly that.
8. People love tax cuts, even though they are arguably a long term detriment to our deficit and economy. For some reason, esp. here in the Midwest and Central region, people loooove the sound of tax cuts, and our local state legislatures will do anything to avoid raising taxes, even at the cost of education, medicaid, etc. A number of lobbying groups from Washington, including Koch's Citizens for a Sound Economy, have successfully lobbied here on no tax increases, and the people and legislatures here continue to bite on it. As strange as I think it is in the long term, the majority tend to continue favoring this point with Bush.
I think it will eventually bite him in the ass, however, much in the same way as it bit his dad's ass. It will likely be too late, however, as it will be deep into his second term.
So overall, I'd still tip the balance toward Bush (unfortunately). Much could change, however, but at the moment I personally see 4 more years. But Jesus, could he at least get rid of Cheney and Rumsfeld? That would personally make me feel a little better.....
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Whence September dusk grows crisper still,
with leaves all crimson conquered,
I yearn to shout,
and dance about,
and stick pickles in my honker...
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