I started with a "Free 20 Oz." cap from a bottle sometime last week. I have since won seven. In a row. Unbroken chain.

The odds of this are insane... Anyone know what my chances are of winning again? Isn't it just like 20⁸ to figure it out?

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1. Utah Saints - Lost Vagueness (Oliver Lieb's Main Mix)
2. Klea - Tic Toc (Paul Van Dyk's Re-Edit)
3. Alibi - Eternity (Inner City Mix)
4. Cirque de Soleil - Pokinoi (Sasha Mix)
5. Chris & Kai vs. Levin - Gone to Heaven

if those are the odds, then there are 20^8 people somewhere out there that are really bummed, and its AL LBECAUSE OF YOU!

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http://www.youtube.com/mezzir

quote:

Originally posted by wwu.punisher I started with a "Free 20 Oz." cap from a bottle sometime last week. I have since won seven. In a row. Unbroken chain. The odds of this are insane... Anyone know what my chances are of winning again? Isn't it just like 208 to figure it out?

The odds of you winning again are simply the same odds as if you were opening your first bottle, the fact you have won 7 in a row is irrelevant.

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"The first stage of the great adventure has concluded happily, and here I am installed in Mexico, although I have no idea about the future" Che Guevara

If it's 1:12 like most of these soda things seem to be, the odds of getting seven in a row is 12^7...(I think?)

or 1:35831808

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Alcoholic Alliance
The Ecstasy (MDMA) Bible Thread 2.0

quote:

Originally posted by Masonious you win again dude - and nice move shoving the whole i figured out how to order pizza thing in my face. i tried that 4 and a half months ago and woke up with a Taiwanese transvestite but to Ygrene it's just, "anoother day in the life, noooo biggieee".

I've done that before. I went in, bought a Sprite, went outside, opened it, it was a winner. I went back inside, got another, went outside, another winner, this happened 4 or 5 times, then the guy made me open it in the store, and threw me all off, thus resulting in a loser. Needless to say, riding your bike home with 5 or 6 bottles of sprite (5 of them capless) is a bit hard.

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Ron & Fez! Noon to Three!
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quote:

Originally posted by töbias The odds of you winning again are simply the same odds as if you were opening your first bottle, the fact you have won 7 in a row is irrelevant.

not true i believe
each time you open one you got 1 in 7 odds
but then two in a row would be 1 in 7 in 7, aka 1 in 49
etc
i think

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http://www.youtube.com/mezzir

quote:

Originally posted by mezzir not true i believe each time you open one you got 1 in 7 odds but then two in a row would be 1 in 7 in 7, aka 1 in 49 etc i think

Well... honestly, it seems like the odds would be 1 in 20 every time because I'm not drawing from the same pool. (In other words, it's a different pool every time.) HOWEVER, I have bought ALL SEVEN of these sodas at the same campus store. So... what now?

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1. Utah Saints - Lost Vagueness (Oliver Lieb's Main Mix)
2. Klea - Tic Toc (Paul Van Dyk's Re-Edit)
3. Alibi - Eternity (Inner City Mix)
4. Cirque de Soleil - Pokinoi (Sasha Mix)
5. Chris & Kai vs. Levin - Gone to Heaven

quote:

Originally posted by wwu.punisher Well... honestly, it seems like the odds would be 1 in 20 every time because I'm not drawing from the same pool. (In other words, it's a different pool every time.) HOWEVER, I have bought ALL SEVEN of these sodas at the same campus store. So... what now?

If you had bought seven at the same time, and before you opened them wondered you odds of them all being winners then you are starting to look at big odds.

A simple example, having a child. Assuming the chance of a boy is 50% and girl is 50%, then the chances of having 5 girls in a row is 3.1%, quite low.

Now if you already had 4 girls, and you were wondering what the odds of having another girl are you will realise that your sperm didn't know you had 4 girls, and neither did the egg being fertilised, so your odds of having a girl are totally independent of previous events, so they are 50%.

It quite fair to say that after you have 5 girls you say "what are the chances of that?", and you could work out its 3.1%. But upon trying to have another child your odds at that time of having anothe girl are 50%.

Perhaps we should have done this in the maths thread.

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"The first stage of the great adventure has concluded happily, and here I am installed in Mexico, although I have no idea about the future" Che Guevara

nah it may be flawed logic cause i'm a bit messed up
but stilll
say you had a pool of 49, and you chances of getting one were 1 in 7
therefore, there are 7 winners
the first one would be 1:7, or 7:49
but after that, you have a chance of 6:48
thats 1:8 my friend
however, since we're dealing with a supposedly infinite pool (lets just say that to make it easy. yes its the same store every time, but that should only matter if there's a specified number of winners per case, and thats not the case here)
so anyways, so get 1 in 7 the first time, 1:7
the next time, the odds have not changed, still 1:7 even though you just won
however, in a string of probabilities, you multiply the odds
so 1:7 the first time times 1:7 the second time = 1:49 odds that you will get winners on the first two picks
independantly, you get 1:7 on each try, but the more times in a row you win, the slimmer the odds
people know this to be true, but mistakenly think it applies to roulette tables, hence why they now have lil displays of past winners
people think that since, lets say black 18 hasn't won in ages, that its due to win
however, since you're drawing from a new pool every time, the odds are still exactly the same
[/ppd mode]

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http://www.youtube.com/mezzir

ok if its 1 in 7 then no matter how many times you do it the odds are 1 in 7...its a permutation because order doesn't matter.....or maybe its a combination because order doesn't matter. god damn tv/drugs has wasted my brain

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nah we all know its pretty much 1 in 7 or w/e every time
but say its just 1 in 4, the odds of winning 7 times in a row should be about 1 in 16384
so definately plausible, just damn rare i guess
props!

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http://www.youtube.com/mezzir

Well I didn't read the threads before this one, but if its a 1 in 12 win thing, then EACH time you go in, you have a 1/12 chance of opening a winner (obviously). If we were to say something like "Whats the chances of this guy opening up a winner 7 times in a row?" -- the odds would be different, I'm too lazy to figure out.

Anyways pissed me off once, I used to work a shit job as a clerk, and these jackasses came in one day with a free winner cap, then they got their sprite or whatever soft drink, opened it, got another winner, so they went to get another, opened it, another winner, then that little streak ended. They all got a free soft drink to go home with though so oh well not like I care, just means I don't have to ring anything up.

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-trance85