Are we heading for another recession ? God damn, that's a worrying prospect.

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Download and review ! Omega_M - In the Mix (Beta Version)

Originally posted by twilightki : It feels like something you'd listen to at 4 in the morning, or listen to in your car while you're going in a tunnel.

China smells, looks and acts a lot like the U.S. markets of the late 90's. Rampant speculation, record margin debt, markets have gone parablolic, yet China is nowhere near as transparent as other global markets. It's boring, low-risk and unsexy, but right now from a personal standpoint I'm extremely cautious and defensive which argues for treasuries, gold and solid consumer non-cyclicals with decent yields. Better safe than sorry for now. I have the luxury of time. Again, that's just me.

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Originally posted by Omega_M Are we heading for another recession ? God damn, that's a worrying prospect.

It's a good question. Current thinking is that we're headed for a significant slowdown/soft-landing that will not result in a recession, though that call is becoming more tenuous by the day. The thinking is that if it's just a slowdown at hand, then it would actually be bullish for the stock market. However, if a recession is coming, all bets are off and you should clear the decks. We are currently positioned essentially net-neutral, though on a beta-adjusted basis we are certainly net-short.

There are experts going both ways. I'm on the side of slowed growth rather than a recession. The Fed should lower interest rates later this year, FINALLY, letting go off the brakes a little bit.

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I punched out end of Jan, it was just getting a bit 'too good' and when things start getting too good it's time to start getting wary. China was interesting simply because it was just rampant speculation that there was going to be a bit of an inquiry into some sectors of business.
They didn't do it, but it was enough to have obviously frightened the living crap out of enough people who where perhaps not paying as much attention as they perhaps should have.
Big fuss over nothing... which turned into a big loss over nothing.

Likewise, wouldn't worry too much about recessions, China is a big economy but it's still only about 1/5th the size or so of the US's and the US is more than capable of looking after itself.
If you're looking for something long term, take advantage of the known businesses out there which have a depressed share price and hop on for the ride, preferably some of the finance institutions but they seem to be weathering it better than most.
Short term, really rather not go there...
Commodities, gold, oil and energy, all ripe for some rampant speculation because they're going out the door at the proverbial firesale prices.

I've been saying it before long ago and will say it again - considering the America's weakening dollar and world instability, sharp rising prices of fuel and electricity followed by sluggish economies, and such scares as the one in China in my opinion will result in some serious economic ice ages this century, in proper english - basically I think the world economy will crash, there's too much pressure on it ... dont forget the American currency problems, environmental issues, oil/gas issues, and possible conflicts coming up. Turmoil.

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Whenever you go and buy something, you are affecting someone somewhere, be it environment, a person, or a community - you're making a statement with what you buy. So make it a smart choice ... Its a big picture

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Originally posted by Magnetonium dont forget the American currency problems, environmental issues, oil/gas issues, and possible conflicts coming up. Turmoil.

Uh, it's been like that for as long as I can remember, turmoil is what makes it work.
Picking through it is the risk you take for making money, if you don't want in on it, no one's making you put money into stockmarkets and you can continue on doing whatever it is you do.

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Originally posted by Magnetonium I've been saying it before long ago and will say it again - considering the America's weakening dollar and world instability, sharp rising prices of fuel and electricity followed by sluggish economies, and such scares as the one in China in my opinion will result in some serious economic ice ages this century, in proper english - basically I think the world economy will crash, there's too much pressure on it ... dont forget the American currency problems, environmental issues, oil/gas issues, and possible conflicts coming up. Turmoil.

typical fearfulness of someone who knows nothing, and therefore, is afraid of everything

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Originally posted by Cyrus King i listen to trance becuase it is beautifully composed like a classical piece of music.... but with beats in it...

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Originally posted by Magnetonium I hardly if ever acknowledge sarcasm from a person I dont know because I ran into serious problems on an undisclosed buying website before.

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Originally posted by Dopey typical fearfulness of someone who knows nothing, and therefore, is afraid of everything

Selling and arguing doom and gloom is possibly the worlds oldest industry 2nd to prostitution and a close runner with killing one another for social activities.
The great thing about predicting something bad happening is that eventually, it will happen and then you can jump up and down looking oh so very clever with yourself saying "I told you so!".
The great difference between the average doomsayer and becoming the messiah is whoever gets it the closest to the actual date when the martians, thetans, angels... asteroids? come down and cart off the chosen to heaven, hell, nirvana... wherever.

You can either work in religion selling doom to the unenlightened and make yourself the prophet of millions if you get it right or just start trading shares and predict the doom there and make a profit of millions.

It's a good industry either way! Infinite growth and chance of doom with every passing second, statistically something is going to happen

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Originally posted by Magnetonium I've been saying it before long ago and will say it again - considering the America's weakening dollar and world instability, sharp rising prices of fuel and electricity followed by sluggish economies, and such scares as the one in China in my opinion will result in some serious economic ice ages this century, in proper english - basically I think the world economy will crash, there's too much pressure on it ... dont forget the American currency problems, environmental issues, oil/gas issues, and possible conflicts coming up. Turmoil.

Concerns are well-founded, but yeah, you're probably a little more dour than necessary. Hell, I'm usually too negative but you're making me look like a raging bull!

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Originally posted by Lilith prophet of millions...profit of millions

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Originally posted by Cyrus King i listen to trance becuase it is beautifully composed like a classical piece of music.... but with beats in it...

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Originally posted by Magnetonium I hardly if ever acknowledge sarcasm from a person I dont know because I ran into serious problems on an undisclosed buying website before.