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I'll be honest this time. First off, I'll say that there will NOT be a war between Georgia and Russia, in any case. Worst case scenario - conflict between Georgian government forces and Russian-backed Abkhazian/Ossetian units. Proxy war. But no direct Russian participation, because that will have a devastating political effect.
You know, guys, I'll tell you straight up - Russian politicians have fucked up. Yeltsin started this whole mess by not handling the issue properly in 1990s. They've been lagging on and on and on this entire Abkhazia and South Ossetia debacle that eventually as a result Georgia decided to join NATO to protect its territorial integrity.
In late 1980s, all over Caucasus and in other Soviet republics, many ethnic groups awakened in Glasnost' and perestroika, after having been long repressed by Stalinist policies, and have been suppressed for decades from voicing their ethnic concerns. Some have wanted to settle old scores, redraw borders, and in some cases also aim for independence. The most notable of these became Transdnistria, Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabach, North Ossetia-Ingushetia, etc and as in this case, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
South Ossetia was formely part of Russia during the Russian Empire, but was transferred to Georgia during the famous Stalinist 1920s-1930s border shifts and ethnic purges. Stalin had a habit for shifting borders (which sometimes took away from other ethnicities) and forcefully resettled ethnic groups that affected a lot of people, which was to lead to trouble in the late 1980s. Georgian paramilitary units took advantage of the Purges in 1930s and rounded up and shot a number of Abkhazians and Ossetians, and moving ethnic Georgians to displace those who were ethnically cleansed. This was not to be forgotten or forgiven, and the feelings burst in the open Glasnost' years. Recall how Tito suppressed similar ethnic feelings during his reign and what that led to, decades later? 
In the late 1980s, there were plenty weapons in the Caucasus. All that was needed is a spark, and that came with Glasnost. In 1989, South Ossetians walked in the streets of their capital city of Tskhinvali and demanded to leave the Georgian Soviet Republic and rejoin North Ossetia. Bloodshed followed. Georgian troops were pushed out in 1992.
Georgia was in political turmoil at the time, and exerted little control, even a province of Adjaria was de-facto independent. After a lengthy and bloody was between Abkhazian separatists (backed by North Ossetian volunteers) and Georgian forces, Georgia was driven out in 1993 and Russia stepped in with peacekeepers to stop the violence (while the rest of the world just watched). Heck, during that war even some Chechen guerillas like Basayev participated, on the guerilla side. Some horrific ethnic cleansing against Georgians was carried out by Abkhazian forces, on the scale similar to Bosnia. Many thousands of ethnic Georgians became refugees and left Abkhazia.
Now here's when the problem came - over time, it became apparent to Georgians that these two breakaway republics have become Russian protectorates, though not independent and under economic embargo from Russia. Georgia's government was overthrown in 2003 by a group led by Saakashvilli, who himself recently came back from USA after living there for several years (can I say - agent?).
Saakashvilli claimed that he would retake control of all the rebellious provinces, as part of his election promises. In early 2004, he swiftly moved to take control over Adjaria by sending in special forces and forcing out Adjaria's president. Luckily there was no bloodshed.
This alarmed Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgian troops started to receive significant American funding and weaponry. American military advisors arrived in Tbilisi. Georgia built a massive oil pipeline to bypass Russia and its ally Armenia, moving Azeri oil to Turkey and then to NATO countries. Georgian then violated the 1994 treaty by taking Kodori Gorge (within Abkhazian borders) in 2006.
Recently Georgian military has been quietly shelling South Ossetia. Abkhazia has been rocked by several bombings, presumably by Georgian Special Forces. Russia made itself look bad by choosing sides (the separatists), like when it shot down Georgian spy planes over Abkhazia or when it sent several jets on a fly-over in South Ossetia in show of strength and to diffuse the situation.
Russian indecision when deciding the future of the separatist republics and its reluctance to pressure Abkhazia and South Ossetia to accept Tbilisi rule for greater autonomy is now inching closer to a regional war. Georgia is tired of waiting, and with NATO backing it thinks its military can win the possible war. Russia will not recognize the separatist republics' independence because it has nothing to gain from it and everything to lose.
Strategically, Russia lost Georgia to NATO when it failed to implement a strategy to resolve the separatist issue since 1994. Now Russia faces a dilemma - play the waiting game and allow Georgia to attack the separatists and hope that fails, or act now to avoid the war by convicing the rebellious republics to bow to Tbilisi in return for peace and stability. Russia should've looked at Bosnian peace model instead of its current protectorate status over the republics.
Georgia is bent on war, all signs point to it. Russia is bent on status quo, which is not going to last forever. Sochi 2014 Winter Games are all but ruined now.
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Last edited by Magnetonium on Jul-29-2008 at 00:38
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