quote: | Originally posted by JEO
I've learnt to see Russia as an opportunist rather than a goal-oriented and rational actor, so to me there's simply no telling what they'll do next, unless there's an obvious weakness somewhere to be exploited. The whole Lenin's bayonet thing. It might be that Putin's generals oversold him the idea of Ukraine being an easy target – that the bayonet would hit something soft, so to speak. Maybe Ukraine will simply turn out to be a mistake for him, he'll retreat, and there'll be a small frozen conflict left in Ukraine. |
I'd be careful with statements like this. Just because we don't understand their rationality does not mean that it does not exist. And Putin is certainly goal oriented - but unfortunately we don't quite understand his goals.
quote: | Originally posted by JEO
However, there is an opportunity that's been waiting for him for two decades, and now that he's shown his appetite, I see big potential for the conflict to shift from Ukraine to the Baltic Sea area. Not necessarily soon, but in the coming few years.
I don't think they've publicly said anything about invading or not invading Finland and/or Sweden. It's unclear whether the "Don't believe anything until the Kremlin denies it" rule applies to lies by omission. I hope not. |
If reports from Ukraine are remotely accurate, it seems unlikely Russia will be able to pivot to the Baltics anytime soon. The amount of materiel they are losing appears to be astounding. Their army is also, it appears, kinda shit?
quote: | Originally posted by JEO
I think the sanctions really have hit the people and companies of Russia quite hard, and letting it affect his decisions regarding the war would make sense if he was acting rationally. It's just that they've learned to live with sanctions before (like they had any other choice), and somewhat pessimistically I believe the people will learn to live with the new ones too, and with minimal unrest. |
I dunno about them living with these sanctions. I don't think the world has ever imposed sanctions this severe on anyone except North Korea, and they never have had access to the developed world and our products the way Russians have. We're cutting them off from everything they've gained the last 30 years. It's going to be pretty miserable there very soon. Not just no Nike/Adidas, but no Microsoft Azure, no Google Search, no Visa, no Mastercard, etc etc.
quote: | Originally posted by JEO
I think he believes these few coming years to be his last chance to ensure he'll be a Russian hero in Russian history books. He's getting old and might even have an illness that has prompted him to do this. In my opinion the probability of him calling it a day after possibly accepting a defeat in Ukraine is close to zero. When desperation hits after a defeat in Ukraine, he's going to be even more unpredictable, I fear. |
He's never going to be a hero in the history books. He had an opportunity, in like 2000-2005 or whatever, but now he's just damaged the country, perhaps permanently.
quote: | Originally posted by JEO
Not everyone. Marco Rubio's Twitter account has basically become a way to see into the future regarding this conflict. I'd even go so far as to speculate that the intel the US gave away earlier that "wasn't correct", initially was correct, and it did exactly what it was supposed to: took away a big enough part of the element of surprise, forcing Putin to delay. |
Well, yeah, obviously not everyone
Personally, I've made an absolute killing the past two months, by betting big on oil and gas, especially on companies with no Russia exposure.
quote: | Originally posted by Lira
Reminds me of something a very good Ukrainian friend of mine told me: even as her dad and friends were under fire in Kyiv, they couldn't believe it was really happening, because it was completely off their radar (despite the frozen conflict since 2014). I remember reading back in early February that, according to a survey by a Foreign Policy author, 61% of Russia experts thought there'd be an invasion - so even 39% of people whose job it is to understand the inner workings of the Kremlin failed to see it coming.
Even Russians seem to be dumbstruck by this advance, so it's no wonder the general public seems to have fallen for the Kremlin version of the conflict hook, line and sinker. Hell, most Brazilians I know seem to be pro-Russia (this is just an impression, I wish there was a poll to prove me wrong though). |
Hope springs eternal
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Quarantine Classics Brunello di Montalcino (In Transit) Edition [Progressive Classics] (August 2020)
Quarantine Classics - Puligny-Montrachet Edition [Progressive Classics] (April 2020)
What Is Progressive Anyways? [Progressive House Classics] (November 2019)
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