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Lira
Ancient BassAddict
Registered: Nov 2001
Location: Brasília, Brazil
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Aug-08-2022 17:58
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SYSTEM-J
IDKFA.
Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Manchester
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I actually think it is a turning point, although I'm not sure where that turn leads us. It was obvious within a couple of months that Russia could not "win" the war in its original definition: the complete occupation of Ukraine. Since then Russia has been steadily reducing its own stated objectives, but the counter-attack in the north east and the subsequent attempt to illegally annexe the captured territories turned things in the other way: Russia is now fighting a defensive war to hold the territory it has gained. And at present it's losing that war.
The mobilisation isn't going to change anything. It might actually make things worse. Russia's problem is that its forces are poorly trained, poorly equipped but especially that they are poorly motivated. Shambolically drafted conscripts are not going to solve any of those problems. Let's be clear: Russia's recent losses are because its ground forces are being routed, not destroyed. Their morale is collapsing so completely in combat that they are fleeing the battlefield. Their troops don't want to fight. Numerical superiority cannot overcome that.
I don't know if Ukraine has the combat power to retake and hold everything it's lost. But I can realistically envisage a scenario where the Russian army collapses completely as an effective combat force.
As for the use of tactical nuclear weapons, the Institute for the Study of War pointed out the following yesterday:
quote: | The Russian military in its current state is almost certainly unable to operate on a nuclear battlefield even though it has the necessary equipment and has historically trained its units to do so. The chaotic agglomeration of exhausted contract soldiers, hastily mobilized reservists, conscripts, and mercenaries that currently comprise the Russian ground forces could not function in a nuclear environment. Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassable for the Russians, likely precluding Russian advances. This consideration is another factor that reduces the likelihood of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use. |
https://www.understandingwar.org/ba...sment-october-1
In other words, a waste of time except as a weapon of pure terror.
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Oct-02-2022 20:18
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_Ocean_Drive_
Supreme tranceaddict
Registered: Jul 2004
Location: Iwate
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I find the term 'tactical' nuke, an oxymoron. There is nothing 'tactical' about a nuke; it's a brute-force indiscriminate WMD. Safe to say that if Russia did use it, Large swathes of Russia would be molten glass and this conversation null and void.
In any case, I think he'll croak or be assassinated before too long. The only scary thing is, if he is suicidal or genuinely does have something terminal, and doesn't care if he takes the rest of the world with him. 'That' is a scary prospect.
Incidentally, if anyone is a keen reader, I strongly suggest Bill Browder's books, particularly the latest one - 'Freezing Order'.
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Social outcasts are often of the opinion that they must have a drink before being able to loosen up with their inhibitions, thus being able to have a good time.
There's a word that sums up this sort of behaviour, and that word is 'reject.' |
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Oct-03-2022 01:15
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JEO
Supreme tranceaddict
Registered: Jan 2010
Location: ATH
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There's been some interesting, albeit perhaps quite unrealistic, speculation about what the "power vacuum" followed by the possible total collapse of the Russian military would lead to. Some see China using the situation to their advantage, which I also think is definitely gonna happen. Surprisingly many see Russia disintegrating into lots of smaller countries, which I guess is based on the assumption that it's mostly been the illusion of Russia being a military superpower that's held the tattered giant together. Realistically, I think there are one or two small areas that could break into their own independent countries, were there to be a total collapse. I don't think many of the areas that used to be something else than Russia have many non-Russians left there to drive this sort of change, but who knows?
quote: | Originally posted by _Ocean_Drive_
I find the term 'tactical' nuke, an oxymoron. |
I did too, but prompted by what you said, I read about the term on Wikipedia and I guess it makes sense to differentiate a "battlefield nuke" from one that has a broader strategic purpose, like destroying military-industrial facilities far behind enemy lines.
I don't see him being assassinated though, and I've given up on the hope that he's just going to up and die all of a sudden. What I think is going to happen is that some hard-liner is going to oust him the Russian way, and we'll actually end up "missing" Putin. Putin will have a semi-dignified exit and his successor is responsible for paving his way into a trouble-free time for the rest of his life.
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Oct-03-2022 09:22
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Lira
Ancient BassAddict
Registered: Nov 2001
Location: Brasília, Brazil
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quote: | quote: | Originally posted by JEO
Do you really want to see Russia collapse? I'd be more cautious with wishes like that." Just spare me from the world-hugging shit already when the subject is Russia. Half of Europe's been waiting for this cancer to go into remission for centuries, and your anti-US shit isn't helping at all. |
quote: | Originally posted by JEO
Realistically, I think there are one or two small areas that could break into their own independent countries, were there to be a total collapse.
[...]
What I think is going to happen is that some hard-liner is going to oust him the Russian way, and we'll actually end up "missing" Putin. |
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Oh, look who's spouting "anti-US shit" now. And missing Putin, really? Add quotes all you want, but if you're going to act all indignant, at least have some consistency.
Or better yet, just go back to posting unrelated YouTube videos to make yourself feel better. You're definitely in a position to judge Roger Waters' education, as shown here
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Oct-03-2022 18:09
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