All right, hooray for procrastination! I don't really have much time to write about every team as Jack did, so I'll do something completely reckless for good fun: I'll be even bolder and try to predict the results just so we can all laugh at my mistakes later on
Here's what I'll be taking into account:
- Elo Rating: As a rule of thumb, semifinalists tend to come from the top 10 ranked countries. It's the basis for the FIFA Ranking without all the tinkering that doesn't seem to improve prediction rates. There have been exceptions, such as Croatia in 2018 and Uruguay in 2010, but it's often bang on the money - in 2014, the only semifinalist that wasn't in the top 4 prior to the competition (the Netherlands) was ranked fifth.
- EA Predictions: Not unlike the traditional number crunching methods, this is what happens when you let a computer do the maths. It's picked the winner three times in a row, but it only did a better job than ELO at picking the other semifinalists in 2018.
- Bookmakers' Odds: They're literally making money out of this, so whenever the data from the previous two methods look conflicting, I'll trust the professional number crunchers.
Group Stage:
Group A - The Netherlands (W) and Ecuador (RU). Senegal might knock Ecuador out, but CONMEBOL as a whole is a much more competitive confederation than CAF, thus giving Ecuador a much better rating. EA sees Senegal advancing, but betting odds for Ecuador are slightly better or equal to Senegal's, so there we go.
Group B - England (W) and Iran (RU). Okay, I'm bypassing my own rules to pick Iran here as a dark horse, a team better ranked than the US and with as close a "home advantage" as possible. Neither the EA prediction nor the bookies agree with me, which would overrule the slightly better ELO rating, but the US finished third in CONCACAF and Iran won their AFC group, so I'm throwing caution to the wind here.
Group C - Argentina (W) and Mexico (RU). It's pretty much a toss-up between Mexico and Poland, apparently. Mexico is slightly better ranked, EA picked Poland, and the bookies are torn between the two. Mexico is slightly more tropical than Poland, so if this doesn't help them play in the scorching heat, I don't know what will.
Group D - France (W) and Denmark (RU). I'm once again bypassing my instincts here because winners tend to underperform whenever they're back. France are the defending champions. France is only slightly better ranked than Denmark, despite winning the previous World Cup, EA sees both teams going forward, and bookies also favour France.
Group E - Spain (W) and Germany (RU). This feels so wrong, but ELO gives Spain a much better ranking, EA yields this exact outcome, and the bookies agree this is the most likely scenario.
Group F - Belgium (W) and Croatia (RU). I wish Canada advanced though, they've been CONCACAF superstars.
Group G - Brazil (W) and Switzerland (RU). It's almost a toss-up with Serbia for 2nd place, but the Swiss have a better rating, better betting odds, and EA stuck with them. Who am I to disagree?
Group H - Uruguay (W) and Portugal (RU). I kind of want to just pick Uruguay and South Korea and override the prediction system I worked on, because Portugal nearly failed to qualify. So I'll just have Uruguay come out on top instead... that's much more realistic than my beloved South Korea advancing to the next round.
Round of 16
Netherlands - Iran (or the US)
Argentina - Denmark
England - Ecuador
France - Mexico
Spain - Croatia
Brazil - Portugal
Belgium - Germany (choosing EA over ELO)
Uruguay - Switzerland
Quarter Finals
The Netherlands - Argentina
Spain - Brazil
England - France
Belgium - Uruguay
I kind of wish we could have a South American majority though...
Semifinals
Argentina - Brazil (this is the ELO speaking, I swear!)
France - Belgium (this is more of a toss-up, but France beat them the last two times they met)
Finals
Argentina - Belgium
Brazil - France
In my defence, both the ELO Ratings and the bookies agree this is the most likely final. I don't understand how EA saw Argentina and France swap places, but the only semifinalist we disagree on is Belgium (EA sees Portugal doing better for some reason). But, odds are I'm wrong because we flop whenever we're favourites, so let's see how wrong I am
Edit: Oh, just saw Opta's numbers. Not much different from the ones I used. They seem much more bullish about Germany and bearish about Belgium than I am although, granted, that's exactly what the stats say. Hmm...
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Last edited by Lira on Nov-16-2022 at 13:30
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