quote:

Originally posted by SYSTEM-J What's happening there is fucking terrible, but you know there's a horrific war going on somewhere near enough constantly. They're still at it in Syria and Yemen with some horrendous human rights abuses.

No doubt. I wasn't referring so much to the suffering happening in Ukraine at this time, which in itself is enough grounds for drinking, but to the semi-direct threat Russia now poses to my country too. We're used to Putin threatening us, but this time there seems to be something quite concrete behind the threats. Besides Ukraine, we're the only non-NATO country in Europe that shares a border - the second longest European one at that - with Russia. Putin's big European de facto vassal is excluded here. After 2008, and at the latest after 2014, that we would be a target of direct military action has in some way been on everyone's mind here, and the semi-regular hybrid/cyber attacks on Finland have been a reminder that "someone" is preparing something. I think, under the surface, there's a collective feeling of living in a temporary country that could cease to exist any day.

After my conscription in 2009 the risk of war has touched me personally, and I became a NATO-proponent quite shortly after my military service ended. It's been harrowing to follow Finland's eunuch discourse about joining NATO. Due to our lack of lustration, the old Soviet appeasers are still in politics, and the possibility of joining NATO has been nowhere close until the last few days, and now it's too late. We're reaching another peak in Finlandization soon enough.

Finland is in no way safe from this madman, especially listening to his "history lesson" on how one of the Russian Empire's biggest mistakes was to release countries like Finland. At least since 2009 that I know of, they've rehearsed the same pattern for taking over Finland, which is to cut Finland's land-routes to Sweden ("easy" by establishing a line from somewhere like Salla to Oulu or Kemi) and quickly encircle Finland in the Baltic Sea. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are probably feeling the pressure too, but they've been smarter than us at least in one regard.

He's busy with Ukraine for now, but is seemingly saving his strongest equipment and troops for something else. Possibly for a potential escalation with the west? I really wonder if NATO will magically decide to intervene regardless of Ukraine's membership status. The threshold for that is at least very high.

Last edited by JEO on Mar-05-2022 at 13:23

quote:

Originally posted by JEO He's busy with Ukraine for now, but is seemingly saving his strongest equipment and troops for something else. Possibly for a potential escalation with the west? I really wonder if NATO will magically decide to intervene regardless of Ukraine's membership status. The threshold for that is at least very high.

There will be no direct conflict between NATO and Russia, that much is clear. The risk of escalation is far too high. So any NATO intervention in Ukraine will be along the same lines we're already seeing from member states through other channels. However, that doesn't mean Putin can throw everything he has at Ukraine with impunity. He has a lot of borders to protect.

I understand your worries but I think the risk to Finland is relatively low at this stage, for two reasons:

1. It's already looking like occupying and holding Ukraine is going to be much harder than Russia perhaps anticipated, which means it could become a major drain on their military resources. I don't see them extending their front to another country.

2. Maybe I'm only reading biased western media, but I've read a lot of stuff about how the economic sanctions on Russia have hit them harder than, again, Putin might have anticipated. Whatever the outcome of the ground war in Ukraine, it's already looking like an extremely costly invasion for them, which also makes it less likely they'll be keen for a repeat.

As always, history has the ability to make fools of us all, but the early signs are that this war is going to turn into a quagmire for Russia. It doesn't look like the start of an era of triumphant expansionism for them.

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Last edited by SYSTEM-J on Mar-02-2022 at 11:02

quote:

Originally posted by JEO What?

Dude it was a stupid comment I made, I shouldn't have made it , but yeah ...I acknowledge it wasn't right

I appreciate the local and global perspectives on this situation, all. I can't lie: I'm a 45 year old sheltered American. I am "ignorant" of world politics and speak only a single language, American English. But I have an appreciation for Europe, politically and culturally, and recognize the roles and barriers that Europe has provided over the years. In fact, I almost started a thread here asking for insights, but I was afraid it would appear both ignorant and political in intent, even though that was not the case. I appreciate any "local" insights into the situation currently unfolding. I'm politically adverse by nature, as I distrust most politicians, especially career politicians. But I also welcome a diverse discussion. Thank you in advance for all replies and insights. I stand with the iron will and solidarity of the Ukranian people. I can only hope I could show the same resolve.

quote:

Originally posted by LoveHate Dude it was a stupid comment I made, I shouldn't have made it , but yeah ...I acknowledge it wasn't right

Don't worry about it. The conflict touches you about as much as something in the Middle-East touches me, and as cynical as it sounds, it's hard to care for something so remote without putting effort into it.

This place will persist.

Good. Perhaps, should the worst come to pass, the Chill Out Room could host a remote session for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia once the earth topside has become irreparably irradiated.

i have a confession to make, i am sorry to all i have misled
i actually prefer burger king over mcdonalds
never trust a russian
Flying Monkeys now has a quadruple IPA
beer is good
liberate east prussia

Better come up for a Flying Monkeys multi flight sesh this summer if we still exist, brah!

will do! I'm trying to initiate propaganda on my gf to buy a house in gravenhurst/bracebridge but her eyes are set on brantford. the amount of flying monkeys trips that could be had.......

Brantford??? Vs cottage country?? Come on bitch.