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EXCELLENT Analysis of What Would Happen if N. Korea War Breaks Out
While reading about N. Korea's latest round of nuclear posturing:
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiap...ukes/index.html
I came across an excellent commentary of how a N. Korean war would play out. Anyway, I didn't write it, but I thought it was so good that I thought that I would share it with all of you:
There are currently 250 thousand South Korean active duty troops (all services) serving in direct security roles ont he DMZ. They are bolstered by 37,000 regular US army and marine corps troops as well as AF/ANG/AFR personell. The US has pre-positioned the equivalent of 3 mechanized and one armoured division's worth of equipment in the far south along with deeply buried munitions and fuel supplies to supply them with. The USAF also has dozens of pre-sited and preparred squadron kits and rough fields in the south as well as co-lo with The SKAF units (Which are mostly US trained and far better equiped than the North).
It's true there are over 15 million SKs in artillary range of the North's pre-sighted guns, but those guns wouldn't get off more than half a dozen rounds before being counterbatteried or struck with air strikes/missles. The real issue is that the SK navy is relatively small and incappable of stopping the primative but massive naval assets of the NK coastal navy... they could land tens of thousands (it is their plan mind you to do so) of 'special warfare' and special forces men between the DMZ and the souther penninusular reserve forces that would be airlifted in by the US.
Any land war in Korea is going to be bloody... very bloody. If NK escalates it to nuclear and launches, they have the technical ability to hit targest as far away as Diego Garcia or LA. Most likely targest will be surge basing in Hawaii and Japan as well as targets of opportunity including LA if possible. Their missle system for delivering their first gen warheads (probalby a 20 -80KT yeild at best) is primative with a CEP of 5 miles or more. It's also not exactly a defnisible missle, lacking any kind of ECM/Chaff/Meanuvering like front line US/Brit/Russian missles so it's could possibly be shot down by pre-stationed Patriots or even AGEIS systems.
The US counterblow would, contrary to popular belief, be very measured given how global the impact of even a limited nuclear war would be envrionmentally and politically. I doubt we use anything big, opting instead for precision tactical nuke strikes against burried basing and supplies as well as C3 infrastrucutres that are on a ration of 1 to 10 versus conventional attacks. We don't need to nuke NK flat to cripple their war effort or decapitate them, and indeed our large precision weapons can bring more firepower on target more accurately than most nuclear delivery systems.
I envision the NKs springing out of their fortified DMZ line in two prongs, one moving to the south rapidly and one smaller prong moving directly on Seoul. Simultaneously they would launch raids and small scale strikes along the coasts and try to cut off left to right lines of communication across the penninsula and inhibit reinforcements streaming in from the south. Their diesel subs (probably their most dangerous weapon, and they have over 30) will move to try and stop Marine MUIs from landing and hit at US CVN groups supporting them, possibly with some limited success given how quiet those boats can be (albeit in suicidal fashion). The NK airforce will mostl likey be used in typical soviet doctrine and be contained easily within 24 hours by the combined US and SK air units available and be a near non-factor in the ensuing counter air campaign - expect a few surprise successes with their few modern deep interdictor aircraft like the SU-27 on the opening day, performing deep strikes against US pre-po equipment and southern port facilities and perhaps against a few of the biggest SK airfields.
Within 48 hours the US could have over 20K additional men on the ground via air from both Iraq and Korea (look for an upcoming shift of light forces out of Iraq in the coming days with this announcement!) and within a week we would have another 60K men mated up to surving pre-po equipment in the north to join the battle south of Seoul. Seoul won't fall immediately, but it will be a bosnian like landscape of humanitarian disaster as the NK troops surround and batter the city mercilessly. The SK troops will split, some entering the city for defense on the edge and the remainder bending south in line down the penninsula as reinforcement clean out the raiders and special forces in the rear and battle their way to the line. The NKs have alot invested in tactical and theater air defense so expect some sad numbers in the opening days as SK and US aircraft take some moderate losses, but I say we have theater air supperiority below the DMZ in 48 hours and complete control in four days.
Once the roll of the NK forces stops and their momentum is spent, I figure to see chemical weapons come out and be used by NK followed by what ever nukes they have managed to build (both in strikes below our direct line on our air bases and rear as well as abroad at targets of opportunity including in the continental US). We would retalliate at this point rapidly with a heavy conventional and light tac nuke campaign that would decapitate NK and gut their infrastrucutre to support any more war.
1.5 Million dead South Koreans, half civillians trapped in Seoul.
15K US killed.
700K NK Killed (barring any strikes by nuclear weapons on populace centers, then the number could be 5x that).
Reads like a Tom Clancy novel right?
Ok back to our regularly scheduled Israel vs. Pal bickering 
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Retro ...
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where'd you get that from?
