They Were a Success for Most Iraqis but...
They Were a Success for Most Iraqis but May Yet Lead to Failure for the United States
By Frank Smyth
The failure of the U.S.-backed election in Iraq is not that it was illegitimate for most Iraqis but that the exercise has only deepened Iraq’s sectarian divisions and perhaps moved the country closer toward the specter of a full-scale civil war.
Progressives should remain critical of the January 30 election but not for the reasons that most have articulated so far. Many anti-war critics were so busy pooh-poohing the balloting as a farce engineered by the Bush administration that they forgot that Washington had only agreed to the election under Iraqi Shi’ite pressure. The first U.S. plan for Iraq was to hold indirect elections through regional caucuses, a process that would have lent itself far more easily to American manipulation. But Iraq’s Shi’ite grand ayatollah, Ali Sistani, and other Iraqis said no. Actually, the election results are not likely to enhance American influence over Iraq. According to the reliable Arab-run polling firm, Zogby International, more than two-thirds of Iraq’s Shi’ites want U.S. forces out of Iraq either immediately or once the elected government is in place. That goal may be unrealistic, since any sudden withdrawal of U.S. forces could well plunge Iraq into civil war, but it underscores that the election was a step forward for Iraqi sovereignty, despite the conditions of U.S. military occupation in which it took place. U.S. progressives could help Iraqis reach their goal by ensuring that a transfer of power actually occurs.
Frank Smyth is a freelance journalist writing a book on the 1991 uprisings against Saddam Hussein, which he covered at the time from inside Iraq for CBS News, The Economist, and The Village Voice. He is the co-author of Dialogue and Armed Conflict: Negotiating the Civil War in El Salvador and of El Salvador: Is Peace Possible? and a regular contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus (http://www.fpif.org) His clips are posted at www.franksmyth.com.
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