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George Smiley
Supreme tranceaddict

Registered: Jan 2004
Location: 9 Bywater Street, Chelsea, London
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I've just posted this on the other thread and I suppose it really belongs here...(re: What Iran's goal really is imo)
Imo, Iran wants what Saddam wanted. A sphere of influence in the Middle East. Power and influence. With dominance of the Middle East would come enourmous influence in the world stage. However, any country in the world that operates under a different ideology/political system to Liberal Democracy is under threat from America (PNAC's own words). Iraq, Syria and Iran were/are all under threat from neoconservative "democratisation" (ie regime change). Iraq had been the neocon target for well over a decade and as soon as they got their chance, they took Saddam out (under the guise of the war on terror). Iran knows it is next (find me someone who disagrees!). However, Iran finds itself in a good position. With American forces stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran knows it is safe for the time being. As soon as Iraq becomes stable enough for American military personel to be completely pulled out they will go straight into Iran (hence, imo, Iran's meddling in Iraq). The only way for Iran to prevent this is with a nuclear deterrent (see North Korea). Bare in mind what I think Iran's aim is (Middle Eastern dominance, which = power and influence on the global stage). And then consider what the result of a nuclear strike on Israel would be. Israel (and quite possibly America) would launch a second strike, completely annhilating Iran, and therefore ending any Iranian desires to dominate the Middle East (or convert the world to Islam if you believe that crap). A nuclear Iran would be quite capable of dominating the Middle East without battering an eyelid at Israel's existance. For the purpose of controlling the Middle East (oil supplies), Israel is insignificant.
Iran's leader is certainly a cocky little shit, but he is anything but "crazy" and he knows that making anti-Israel rhetoric is a great way to curry favour with the rest of the Middle Eastern populance (which in turn would make his ambitions to be the Middle Eastern 'superpower' that much more easier)
That's my opinion anyway: Iran wants nuclear weapons to ward of the inevitable US invasion and to gain control over the Middle East
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Aug-25-2006 17:24
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shaolin_Z
Hei Hu Quan

Registered: Nov 2004
Location: Austin, Texas, USA: TXTA #102
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| quote: | Originally posted by George Smiley
However, Iran finds itself in a good position. With American forces stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran knows it is safe for the time being. As soon as Iraq becomes stable enough for American military personel to be completely pulled out they will go straight into Iran (hence, imo, Iran's meddling in Iraq). |
Which is why I'm of the opinon that Israel's recent war with Lebanon may serve as a means to pull Iran and Syria into the conflict; a proxy war for the PNAC team. What do you think?
___________________
"The Greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." -Stephen Hawking
"First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a communist;
Then they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a socialist;
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist;
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Jew;
Then they came for me— and there was no one left to speak out for me." -Martin Niemöller
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Aug-25-2006 17:48
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