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Taiwan: Flashpoint 2004 (pg. 2)
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| occrider |
| I'm not saying that there would be a war between China and the US. Quite the contrary, I'm guessing that there won't be a war between China and the US, but there might be a war between Taiwan and China. Think about it, what more perfect an opportunity for China to reacquire Taiwan than now when the US will most assuredly will not committ itself to another major conflict when it is fully occupied with Iraq? Personally, I think that as China continues to grow exponentially economically and militarily, we are going to see a growing sense of nationalistic tendencies. You can see bits and peices of this through their growing space program and how it is being marketed towards the chinese public. I wouldn't be surprised to see an ultimatum come from China with respects to a Taiwanese political decision, see Taiwan refuse, and China may embark on using limited force which may escalate out of control ... |
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| biznology |
but in China now the focus is on making money, and not much else. most elderly people there remember how ed up things could be if there are massive changes, mobilizations in society whether militarily or not, so i would assume they are seeking stability not chaos. and doing anything to that scale from China will likely cause problems domestically and internationally.
China is at a point where they cant piss off the international community as they want to keep growth coming, but at the expense of there environment and natural resources. they need to keep the peace to keep the money and resources coming into the country| |
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| TuanAnh213 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Yoepus
China is smart, they think of things long term. Why go through a costly war for a pathetic island, |
care to elaborate on how taiwan is a "pathetic little island":rolleyes: |
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| Yoepus |
| quote: | Originally posted by biznology
but in China now the focus is on making money, and not much else. most elderly people there remember how ed up things could be if there are massive changes, mobilizations in society whether militarily or not, so i would assume they are seeking stability not chaos. and doing anything to that scale from China will likely cause problems domestically and internationally.
China is at a point where they cant piss off the international community as they want to keep growth coming, but at the expense of there environment and natural resources. they need to keep the peace to keep the money and resources coming into the country| |
I agree. Just think of all the investment and international exposure China has been working so hard for to get the Olympics of 08. They can't afford a costly (political or economical) fallout from the instablity of such a war.
All full scale war between the two states is quiet unimaginable, esepcially if it will require a Chinese occupation of the island, brutality would have to be very extreme to curtail the high resistance that would ensure. At the occupation alone international forces would no longer be able to turn a blind eye and be forced to intervene.
By 2050, the Chinese predict they will become a moderatly developed nation with GDP exceeding $8,000 per capita (according to the former Chinese Foreign Minister). Hence the mention 50 years from now. To achieve such a high per capita, I believe more economic and liberal reforms will have to be enacted, when such reforms are in acted, I do believe the Taiwanese will not have much to dread the chinese government against, and create some mid-term solution like Hong Kong (under British rule for 50 years till its hand over, yet still preserving much of its automony currently). |
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| Yoepus |
| quote: | Originally posted by TuanAnh213
care to elaborate on how taiwan is a "pathetic little island":rolleyes: |
gees you guys always get so strung up with a bit of sarcasm.
Its pathetic when you compare it in gerographical size with an island like Austrilia, there you happy now?:rolleyes: |
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| TuanAnh213 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Yoepus
gees you guys always get so strung up with a bit of sarcasm.
Its pathetic when you compare it in gerographical size with an island like Austrilia, there you happy now?:rolleyes: |
ummm...your sarcasm is horrible |
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| iLoveDave |
| quote: | | I'm not saying that there would be a war between China and the US. Quite the contrary, I'm guessing that there won't be a war between China and the US, but there might be a war between Taiwan and China. |
I agree fully there.. I always said this from the start....the US won't stand up for Taiwan in the end
| quote: | Originally posted by Yoepus
I agree. Just think of all the investment and international exposure China has been working so hard for to get the Olympics of 08. They can't afford a costly (political or economical) fallout from the instablity of such a war.
All full scale war between the two states is quiet unimaginable, esepcially if it will require a Chinese occupation of the island, brutality would have to be very extreme to curtail the high resistance that would ensure. At the occupation alone international forces would no longer be able to turn a blind eye and be forced to intervene.
By 2050, the Chinese predict they will become a moderatly developed nation with GDP exceeding $8,000 per capita (according to the former Chinese Foreign Minister). Hence the mention 50 years from now. To achieve such a high per capita, I believe more economic and liberal reforms will have to be enacted, when such reforms are in acted, I do believe the Taiwanese will not have much to dread the chinese government against, and create some mid-term solution like Hong Kong (under British rule for 50 years till its hand over, yet still preserving much of its automony currently). |
:conf: hmmmm it's kinda funny how you think.....so size does matter ??? What does your girlfriend/boyfriend think about that???
:toothless
Anyways you think everyone thinks the same....China views Taiwan as a domestic issue and views international opnion or interference as unwelcome. The Chinese would rather get Taiwan back peacefully yes but the said they would use force....and they will use force. What did the intyernational community do when Tianamen Square happened? Not too much ...it was viewed by the Chinese as a domestic issue and so is the issue of Taiwan. The Chinese Government does like anyone ( especially their own citizens) telling them how they should deal with domestic issues period.
And if you truly believe that Taiwan has nothing to fear from the Mainland government you are truly blind....Ask the Honk Kong people what is slowly happening to their One Country - Two system policy,...Its slowly being stripped away. That's how slick the chinese are ...they get in there and work at it slowly. They have the patience to take over slowly. |
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| Yoepus |
| quote: | Originally posted by iLoveDave
And if you truly believe that Taiwan has nothing to fear from the Mainland government you are truly blind....Ask the Honk Kong people what is slowly happening to their One Country - Two system policy,...Its slowly being stripped away. That's how slick the chinese are ...they get in there and work at it slowly. They have the patience to take over slowly. |
I don't believe that, I do believe Taiwan has definitely something to fear. And I believe it is also very smart for the Taiwanese to spend on defense, as this deters the Chinese from invasion.
What I did say, is if the USA and the world do not intervene if war breaks out between China and Taiwan, I believe they're will be international intervention when China occupies Taiwan due to the heavey handed brutality that will accompany it. Perhaps I am wrong here, but I do not believe the world could simply ignore the massacres on Taiwan because it is "an internal affair". They could ignore a war perhaps, but not the slaughter of so many, which I forsee as necessary as I do not see Taiwan willfully surrendering even under the dire of circumstances.
The point I am disagreeing with you is that the US won't stand with Taiwan at the end; I don't agree, I believe the US won't stand with Tawian in the begining but it will stand with it at the end. |
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| occrider |
| Well here's how I would picture a crises situation playing out ... the US will always maintain some kind of presence near Taiwan. It won't base troops on the island like S. Korea, however, it will keept some warships, most likely an aircraft carrier or two, nearby. In the even of Chinese hostilities against Taiwan, the US will not declare war against China. There is no treaty or pact between the two countries and the US stands firmly behind a one China policy (a two China policy would spark off a war according to the Chinese). However, in the event of hostilities, the US would likely send its warships into the area in order provide some kind of deterrance ... it won't fire upon the Chinese, however, it will do so once fired upon. Now at this point one of two scenarios can happen. Either the Chinese will disengage from its hostilities against Taiwan from fear of unintentionally firing upon US forces ... or it will deliberately/accidentally fire upon US forces provoking some kind of response. At that point it's anybody's as to what would happen. |
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| iLoveDave |
| quote: | Originally posted by Yoepus
I don't believe that, I do believe Taiwan has definitely something to fear. And I believe it is also very smart for the Taiwanese to spend on defense, as this deters the Chinese from invasion.
What I did say, is if the USA and the world do not intervene if war breaks out between China and Taiwan, I believe they're will be international intervention when China occupies Taiwan due to the heavey handed brutality that will accompany it. Perhaps I am wrong here, but I do not believe the world could simply ignore the massacres on Taiwan because it is "an internal affair". They could ignore a war perhaps, but not the slaughter of so many, which I forsee as necessary as I do not see Taiwan willfully surrendering even under the dire of circumstances.
The point I am disagreeing with you is that the US won't stand with Taiwan at the end; I don't agree, I believe the US won't stand with Tawian in the begining but it will stand with it at the end. |
| quote: | | I do believe the Taiwanese will not have much to dread the chinese government against, and create some mid-term solution like Hong Kong (under British rule for 50 years till its hand over, yet still preserving much of its automony currently). |
Well make up your mind...you say Taiwan has not much to fear then you say they do have much to fear??? what is it?:conf:
Spending more money on military is not the solution either. China would crush Taiwan if they wanted to invade. Peacful negotiations are needed. |
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| NYCTrancefan |
| China will never allow Taiwan to declare itself as independent, as of now it considers it a renegade province of China and intends to keep it within their reach as much as possible. The Taiwanese would remain satisfied with the current status quo of relations with China, the question is are the Chinese going to be satisfied with this for too much longer. China could eventually take over Taiwan in a conflict but at what cost politically and economically on the international scene. |
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| iLoveDave |
| quote: | Originally posted by NYCTrancefan
China will never allow Taiwan to declare itself as independent, as of now it considers it a renegade province of China and intends to keep it within their reach as much as possible. The Taiwanese would remain satisfied with the current status quo of relations with China, the question is are the Chinese going to be satisfied with this for too much longer. China could eventually take over Taiwan in a conflict but at what cost politically and economically on the international scene. |
All of us already know this......:conf: here I have something for you
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