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Can Russia Be a Great Power? (pg. 2)
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| Magnetonium |
| quote: | Originally posted by NYCTrancefan
Interesting to get the perspective from a Russian, moreover what is the general concensus of the Russian people about the Chechen war. I know in Russia the Chechens are often termed bandits, of course it runs deeper than that. Do Russians believe that the conflict that seems to have no end in sight is worthwhile. Most of the troops who go to fight are not from the major Russian cities such as Moscow, St.Petersburg, so I've heard but the smaller cities and villages throughout the vast terrain of Russia. |
It's true. Most of the troops nowadays are from poor and peasant families, as today any conscipt can buy out the way out of the army service for good amount of money!
The war in Chechnnya is unwinnable using weapons. It can only be ended by peace, by granting rebels their independence, which they will unlikely get. The only way to CONTAIN it is by infiltration, as KGB did from 1950s to late 1980s, when they infiltrated the gangs of the rebels and then either destroyed them or neutralized them. KGB also had great torturing techniques, and didnt disturb the population as much as the Russian troops do now, as they were well paid and well organized. The rebels can never and will never be completely destroyed as Chechnya is mostly a mountanous republic, and there's lots of places to hide.
As for kidnapping people for ransom and/or taking people for slave labour - Chechens have generally been doing that since 1815. Just read a book (forgot the name) by great Russian author, Tolstoy, and he can describe his experiences. Even in the 1980s rebel gang members would travel across Soviet Union, select and capture people for slave labour. I read this article a year ago about an older man from Kharkov (Ukraine), who was abducted from a railroad station stop there in 1986 and taken to Chechnya where he did various slave labour work like painting, brick laying, digging, etc - wearing chains most of the time. He escaped in 2001 to tell his story ... gruesome.
As for their muslim fighers - very cruel "animals" (seen vide clips of them torturing russian soldiers and other people - couldn't sleep for a week), who are very good in trapping, ambushing, assasinating and capturing Russians, expecially soldiers. Since the first 1994-96 war, about 15,000 Russian troops died in the first war, and now another 11,000 troops died in this war, and Chechen rebels continue to attack russian checkpoints and bases on a regular basis, and troops die every day. Over 100,000 civilians died in both wars, and another 300,000 left the country and currently live in neighbouring republics and in Russia. In 1991, Chechen population was exceeding 1 million people, and today it is barely 300,000 people. At time chechens become desperate and even use very well co-ordinated suicide bomber attacks ... Russian troops are so underpaid and abused by other troops and commanders, they themselves theat local population horribly and that also helps the rebels, who however are not nice to locals who dont give them food and support them.
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And what is all of that for? Independence? Is it worth it? In 1991, when Dudayev proclaimed Chechnya an independent country, he didnt see all this coming. I wonder what he thinks now ... country is COMPLETE ruins. Three quarters of the capital city, Grozny is COMPLETELY destroyed, for example ... the country is one of the heaviest mined counties in the world, behind such well-known countries as Afghanistan and Bosnia. Hundreds if not thousands of people, mostly children, injure and die on those landmines every year. Terrible ... those landmines were planted by BOTH rebels and russian troops, more by russians, but what has that done to the land ... |
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| NYCTrancefan |
| Insightful stuff indeed, seems like Putin is intent on keeping Chechnya as a strongly autonomous republic, as long as it is still answerable to Russia in the end. On the other hand the Chechens want complete independence without any affiliation to Russia. Don't see how that can be solved. Many of the other Muslim republics in Russia have accepted autonomy but Chechnya is not accepting likewise. |
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| DrUg_Tit0 |
| quote: | Originally posted by NYCTrancefan
Insightful stuff indeed, seems like Putin is intent on keeping Chechnya as a strongly autonomous republic, as long as it is still answerable to Russia in the end. On the other hand the Chechens want complete independence without any affiliation to Russia. Don't see how that can be solved. Many of the other Muslim republics in Russia have accepted autonomy but Chechnya is not accepting likewise. |
Personally I believe if Putin ever lets Chechnya go it will just open up a can of worms and all the other autonomous republics will start making loud appeals for independence. The disintegration of the Soviet Union sparked a large amount of once firmly subdued russian regions to desire their own independence. Chechnya is basically serving its purpose as a model for those other regions to see what will happen to them if they start to disobey Moscow.
Now, back to the topic of Russians becoming a great power. There are several rather improbable occurances that should happen for such an event to come. First and most obvious, Russia must stabilize itself and ensure a huge economic growth. Secondly, the US must become destabilized and have it's economy weakened in order for Russia to catch up. Now, if those two things happen, then Russia may attempt to regain its old soviet territories and renew it's now shattered army. If such actions won't cause too much of an upheval in the world, Russia will once again become a superpower.
It's obvious why this scenario is unlikely. Even if Bush manages to wreck the US economy, Putin would have to do such a brilliant job to get Russia back on track that would make him the most intelligent leader ever recorded in the history of the world.
But there is another option Russia can do, although that one does not depend on Russian interests only, and that is forming the alliance between Russia, Germany, and France. Those 3 countries together could oppose both US and China, but it would really require huge efforts on all three fronts to form such a union. |
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| Dervish |
| quote: | Originally posted by anuneventrade
Russia won't be coming to world power any time soon. After the Cold War, many countries have taken precautions towards Russia, considering how it originally sided with Germany in WWII, but that was the rest of the worlds fault for pushing them in that direction by denying them alligence. As grand of a country as it is, too many countries would form alliances against them if they made any sort of military strategy to expand once again in Europe.
I doubt that would happen again. Russians look at history, and with the failure of an allegiance in WWII, I highly doubt that they are going to trust any Germans for an alliance. |
I think your going back way too far. In the modern world Russia has been accepted. There is not great rivalry between NATO and Russia the exact oposite, the US and Europe just get closer and closer to Russia it's mutally benifical. The only possible stumbling block could be lack of internal stability genrated by Putin and protracted terrorism issues(and associated commitments). What I mean by that is like when he put the richest man in the country in jail. That made investors seriously edgy.
But Russia and the Russian people are NEVER to be underestimated people easily forget Russia's inherant inovation which is coupled to strength and grit, but not just for the sole purpose of inovation. For example the Soyuz rocket system it's robust and mass produced and works nearly every time (it's more reliable than US sytems). Now that Russia isn't in the Cold War and not in a space race in both it did arguably very well, better in many cases, than the whole of the west. Russias subs are better than UK and arguably US ones and as for avation well inovation and greatness all round really. Now it's coperating and trading with us only internal problems can hold it back and I don't think that can last, it's a developed nation, it's democratic. In the end that'll sort itself out, might take some time but it will. It has huge resourses and in the new world it's too big a market and bank of resources to anything but a major power. Seriously compare and contrast it to little Britain or France or Germany...... or all combined if you like and then see if you still think it isn't a major power even today. |
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| rupert |
| quote: | | In 1991, when Dudayev proclaimed Chechnya an independent country, he didnt see all this coming. |
I doubt he's thinking much. He was killed while using his cell phone in 1996 when Russian airforce homed in out on the phones signal and blew him to bits.
| quote: | | What I mean by that is like when he put the richest man in the country in jail. That made investors seriously edgy. |
The ordinary russian though thinks its an excellent start. People like Khordokovsky didnt get rich by working hard and coming up with good ideas. They stole their fortune by obtaining state assets at bargain basement prices. In the early 1990's the Russian government in desperate need of money decided to follow international advice supported by Kremlin advisors who were strongly influenced by the theories of western market liberalism and privatised state assets.
So many people with influence in the Soviet Union, factory managers and the like bought up all the shares. They got the money to buy these companies because they were 1)sold at ridiculously low prices 2)the support of the Russian mafia who armtwisted russian banks into loaning their "friends" money.
After the end of the Soviet Union Russia could best be described as a Kleptocracy, government by criminals with rampant corruption and mismanagement.
When Putin came into power it is rumored he called in all the oligarchs into a meeting and told them they could keep their wealth if they kept out of politics. Khordokovsky obviously didnt get the message because he bankrolled political parties in opposition to the government. He stuck his neck out and got it chopped off. It sends a clear message to the rest of them and the russian people that now their will be order and the government not the businessmen/criminals who are in charge. |
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| Dervish |
| I never looked at it from that point of view before. I still think it was a short term shock but now I can see that in the long run it was a smart move and could could lead to better less corupt people in power. Would you agree and how likely do you think that is? By the way can I just say I think it's amazing the level of disscussion on this topic. |
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| LouisLaBelle |
Russia is moving towadrs a more authoritarian governement on the political spectrum. With putin arresting business men and taking over the media. He also annouced orthodox christianity is a part of Russia.
France and Germany also promised him if he dissagreed with the war in Iraq, media coverage of the war in checnya would be minimal. Witch it has, I know I havn't heard anything about chechnya in the last 2 years.
Also amnesty international's website is accusing putin of racism and promoting attacks on foreign students. Because of many skinhead beatings and the russian police refusing to stop this from happening. Also my Russian freinds in Montreal are very patriotic and all want to go back to Russia. |
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| biznology |
| quote: | Originally posted by LouisLaBelle
Russia is moving towadrs a more authoritarian governement on the political spectrum. With putin arresting business men and taking over the media. He also annouced orthodox christianity is a part of Russia.
France and Germany also promised him if he dissagreed with the war in Iraq, media coverage of the war in checnya would be minimal. Witch it has, I know I havn't heard anything about chechnya in the last 2 years.
Also amnesty international's website is accusing putin of racism and promoting attacks on foreign students. Because of many skinhead beatings and the russian police refusing to stop this from happening. Also my Russian freinds in Montreal are very patriotic and all want to go back to Russia. |
Well Putin was head of the KGB, so that makes sense that it is moving towards top down rule. plus the bureaucracy present under the Soviets, allowing the Thieves World to do what it wants, in govt and economics| |
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| Magnetonium |
| quote: | Originally posted by rupert
I doubt he's [Dudayev] thinking much. He was killed while using his cell phone in 1996 when Russian airforce homed in out on the phones signal and blew him to bits.
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Of course, we know that. What I meant, is that he wasn't stupid and he thought he could get away with independence after Soviet Union broke apart. He was a very well educated person with history in KGB and Soviet military. I wonder what Chechens think today - would it have been better if they stayed a Russian republic in 1991, or be what they are today. Look at any ex-Soviet republic - under the Soviet rule, they complained about lack of freedom (of speech) and independence, though they had pretty much everything else, like stability, peace, education, work, etc. SO WAS IT ALL WORTH IT? WOULDN'T IT HAVE BEEN BETTER TO WAIT AND LIVE THROUGH THE GORBACHEV SYSTEM (which he never finished)??
It was all Brezhnev's fault, he was the idiot who ruined the Soviet economy and didn't know a thing about politics (pretty much) during his rule in 60s and 70s. He should've gave more power to the people, let them start and run their businesses back then. This is what killed the Soviet economy: all their industries produced very well (regulated by the government, which often didn't know much about the industries - run by people who had nothing to do with industry often enough), so a lot of the produce went to waste In other places there were bad shortages because of the government's mismanagement. For example, there was a low production level set for producing wheat to the farmers, so there were HUGE shortages of bread as a result, because the government mismanaged that industry. In another example, the tractor inductry made too many tractors in one year, just like the government told them to, and many of the tractors went to waste. You see ... |
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| DrUg_Tit0 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Magnetonium
Of course, we know that. What I meant, is that he wasn't stupid and he thought he could get away with independence after Soviet Union broke apart. He was a very well educated person with history in KGB and Soviet military. I wonder what Chechens think today - would it have been better if they stayed a Russian republic in 1991, or be what they are today. Look at any ex-Soviet republic - under the Soviet rule, they complained about lack of freedom (of speech) and independence, though they had pretty much everything else, like stability, peace, education, work, etc. SO WAS IT ALL WORTH IT? WOULDN'T IT HAVE BEEN BETTER TO WAIT AND LIVE THROUGH THE GORBACHEV SYSTEM (which he never finished)??
It was all Brezhnev's fault, he was the idiot who ruined the Soviet economy and didn't know a thing about politics (pretty much) during his rule in 60s and 70s. He should've gave more power to the people, let them start and run their businesses back then. This is what killed the Soviet economy: all their industries produced very well (regulated by the government, which often didn't know much about the industries - run by people who had nothing to do with industry often enough), so a lot of the produce went to waste In other places there were bad shortages because of the government's mismanagement. For example, there was a low production level set for producing wheat to the farmers, so there were HUGE shortages of bread as a result, because the government mismanaged that industry. In another example, the tractor inductry made too many tractors in one year, just like the government told them to, and many of the tractors went to waste. You see ... |
Heh, I kinda agree with you on that one, although Gorbachew wasn't really the sharpest knife in the drawer either. From Stalin to Putin there really wasn't a very capable soviet leader. They either mismanaged the economy, or they couldn't manage to keep the country under control, like Gorbachev and Yeljtsin. |
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| Magnetonium |
| quote: | Originally posted by DrUg_Tit0
... Gorbachew ... |
Hahaha, I like that, very funny. You gotta admit that he was a bright leader, and he was trying to do the right thing, but the hardcore Soviets would not let him fix the country his way, and everything collapsed. All the glory, power, stability and peace went down with Soviet Union the moment it disintegrated ... |
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| DrUg_Tit0 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Magnetonium
Hahaha, I like that, very funny. |
Hehe, actually it was a typing error :)
| quote: | | You gotta admit that he was a bright leader, and he was trying to do the right thing, but the hardcore Soviets would not let him fix the country his way, and everything collapsed. All the glory, power, stability and peace went down with Soviet Union the moment it disintegrated ... |
Yes, he was trying to do the right thing as he did act in good faith, but he did it too hastily and the end result was disasterous. The perestroika should have been done in a way the chinese are transforming their country now, slow and controled. If a regime is built on a tight rule and limited personal freedom, sudden introduction of a free society causes anarchy. I believe that he listened to the words of westerners in an overly gullible fashion and that he deluded himself into thinking that a sudden change of the system will suddenly bring the long expected growth and prosperity. Instead, it caused the complete collapse of the system. With a little more finesse on his side, the Soviet Union would now be an existing and possibly prosperous country. Instead, it is a group of weak and corrupt dictatorships. |
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