| Renegade |
Well, it's nowhere near over yet. As with the US and Bush, here Howard continues to slide on the polls, but you can't help but feel he's going to come back somehow. Latham still has a long way to go, and it's still his election to lose. He's flip-flopping on his party's tax proposal (they've got about 8 to choose from in the next few weeks or so) and if he doesn't get it right, he's just going to hand the initiative back to Howard (who is slipping now because of a cold reception to the dubious tax-cuts he announced in the recent budget).
If national security can become an issue again (it's taken a backseat to economic issues, thankfully) then Latham could be in trouble. Firstly the Howard government will continue to question his commitment to the US alliance (before he became leader, Latham described the Bush as the most dangerous and incompetent president in US history) which Australians seem to value "just in case" we get attacked or something. Secondly, Howard's irrational demonising of boat-people, legitimate refugess and their families appeals to the xenophobe in much of the Australian population, and he won the most recent election after making up a lie about those evil refugess throwing their children overboard (the fabrication was exposed prior to the election, but - somehow - it still helped him win). Remember, this is the government that has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on internment camps for refugees, and essentially denied ownership of half Australia's coastal islands when 15 asylum-seekers landed on one of them a few months ago.
Nonetheless, Howard's credibility on the Iraq issue (due in part his refusal to condemn the recent human rights abuses committed by US and British troops) is waning, and it may backfire on him if he tries to focus too hard on his foreign policy deeds during the campaign. We're not sure if the election's going to be held in August or October yet (probably October given these poll numbers and the budget flop) but there's still a long way to go either way. But, you're right - hopefully Howard falls and becomes the second (including Aznar) of the big-four to fall, which would be a perfect precursor to the inevitable fall of the Shrub in November.
If these poll-numbers keep going as they are (in both Aus and the US), then I'm starting to get excited already. :D |
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