|
My Political Prediction
|
View this Thread in Original format
| TrueToTheCrew |
Im thinking,
Conservative wins a minority gov't.
Tony Valeri - Transport minister looses to the NDP.
Gilles Duceppe leaves federal politics and joins the provincial bloc party to start a seperatist movement.
Harper is gonna make a big mistake that will be exploited.
Within 18 months, parliament will be dissolved ,an election is called because balance of power is just a mess.
Sheila Copps returns and wins her riding nomination and election from Tony Valeri
Paul martin will win a mojority gov't.
Thoughts?? |
|
|
| Dj Tezo |
| sounds about right... but you didn't continue with how the Liberals will then take all of our tax money and use it to wipe the asses of the hookers they buy on their all-inclusive paid vacations during times they are needed in parliament. If only we had a real opposition party. |
|
|
| MarkT |
I somewhat agree with that first post...
I'm still optimistic that Canadians will come to their senses and not sacrifice their own principles simply to punish the Liberals by voting in Harper.
but...as much faith as I have in Canadians being smarter than that...I'm nervous. Let's say Canadians are misguided and they do vote in Harper. I agree 100% he'll do something *incredibly* dumb, in the spirit of Stockwell Day, and Canadians will realize their error.
Even if they don't win now...mark my words people will see the Liberals back in power sooner than they think...AND THEY'LL BE HAPPY ABOUT IT! :) |
|
|
| Dmatrox |
pfft i voted liberal on friday (advance voting). its better for problems in the government to be exposed rather than be kept secret.
| quote: | | Within 18 months, parliament will be dissolved ,an election is called because balance of power is just a mess |
as what happened to joe clark and kim campbell?? seems plausible this time around too. |
|
|
| Brindor |
Heres my prediction:
Some people will vote
More people will bitch
Nothing will change |
|
|
| ericF |
In my opinion I don't think the early surveying of 1000 Canadians is a good estimate of who may win the upcoming election. I don't even believe it should be used at all. Although these surveys suggest that the Conservatives may win with a minority government, I think we'll all be suprised as to what occurs on June 29th.
These surveys that have been done have surveyed 1000 or so Canadians to ask them what party they would vote for on the 29th, well we don't use the popular vote to elect a Prime Minister, the party with the most seats won is the one who wins. So why even waste money on such surveying when it doesn't truly reflect what is needed to be measured. A more appropriate way to predict the new Prime Minister would be to survey 100 people in each riding and then determine how many seats each party may possibily win.
I'm not saying that we should be alarmed that the Conservatives might win, I'm just saying there's a possibility we could be all suprised on the 29th :eek: |
|
|
| TrueToTheCrew |
| quote: | Originally posted by ericF
In my opinion I don't think the early surveying of 1000 Canadians is a good estimate of who may win the upcoming election. I don't even believe it should be used at all. Although these surveys suggest that the Conservatives may win with a minority government, I think we'll all be suprised as to what occurs on June 29th.
These surveys that have been done have surveyed 1000 or so Canadians to ask them what party they would vote for on the 29th, well we don't use the popular vote to elect a Prime Minister, the party with the most seats won is the one who wins. So why even waste money on such surveying when it doesn't truly reflect what is needed to be measured. A more appropriate way to predict the new Prime Minister would be to survey 100 people in each riding and then determine how many seats each party may possibily win.
I'm not saying that we should be alarmed that the Conservatives might win, I'm just saying there's a possibility we could be all suprised on the 29th :eek: |
Agreed to a certain extent but ipsos-reid polls historically are pretty accurate so, lets wait and see |
|
|
| baystreetboi |
If anything, I would think that popular opinion polls would actually underestimate the level of Conservative support / seats they might win.
Think of it this way. The vast majority of people in the country live in urban areas, which tend to lean more toward Liberals / NDP, while rural areas tend to be more Conservative. In taking a "random" opinion poll of 1000 or so people, odds are you're going to hit a lot more people in urban as opposed to rural areas which would skew numbers higher for the Liberals / NDP. Keep in mind the rural ridings tend to have lower populations than urban ridings, so it's poosible for the Conservatives to win more seats with a lower amount of popular support. |
|
|
| TrueToTheCrew |
| 82% of Canada's voting population live in Cities. |
|
|
| mercure |
| In addition, polling firms have fairly sophisticated statistical calculations they perform on their raw data to balance the final results. They adjust weightings of results from various demographics to equal the weight of those groups in the population at large. |
|
|
| baystreetboi |
| quote: | Originally posted by mercure
In addition, polling firms have fairly sophisticated statistical calculations they perform on their raw data to balance the final results. They adjust weightings of results from various demographics to equal the weight of those groups in the population at large. |
Exactly... which is why when you look at these polling results, not only do they give % support, but they often also break it down into # of seats. Even though the Conservatives seem to be holding steady at about 1-2% higher than the Liberals (statistically, basically a dead heat), the seat projections put the Conservatives at about 120 or so seats, and the Liberals at about 90-95.... a result of the urban vs. rural split I mentioned previously. |
|
|
|
|
