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New Bin Laden Tape: Which Candidate Will It Help?
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| LiquidX |
Im not really sure myself if this helps Bush or Kerry. I have my doubts about helping Bush, hence Bin Laden mentions many interesting points upon Bush's reaction on Bin Laden, and, since Bush has said several times that he's not worried about Bin Laden, taken all focus from him tours Iraq.. among other things, but then again, it may affect Kerry on the matter of fear and terrorism, some wacky cocky way for Bush and friends to use in order to scare people.. and get them on their side... sooo .. would it help either? .. or what's up?!?!.. I found this nice article on Slate.com
| quote: | October Surprise: Bin Laden's Reprise
By Alexander Barnes Dryer
Posted Saturday, Oct. 30, 2004, at 2:30 AM PT
As the presidential campaign enters its final, frantic 72 hours, everyone leads with the long-awaited October Surprise, which emerged yesterday in the form of a new videotape from Osama bin Laden. The video features the terrorist kingpin's first direct admission of guilt for the 9/11 attacks and shows him looking healthier and more relaxed than he has appeared in previous recordings. Bin Laden's comments demonstrate a familiarity with recent events in the United States, including the presidential campaign.
The New York Times features the most extensive quotes from the tape, including the entirety of bin Laden's remarks about Bush's initially slow response to news of the attacks. The Los Angeles Times report has the best review of bin Laden's demeanor, noting that he appeared "almost defiant" at times. The Washington Post's story places greater emphasis on the potential political impact of bin Laden's reappearance. A news analysis that runs alongside the paper's lead attempts to discern whether the tape helps or hurts either candidate. The piece presents the emerging conventional wisdom: The video may boost Bush by reminding voters of terrorism (an issue on which Americans continue to trust him), or it may boost Kerry by reminding voters bin Laden is still on the loose (an issue on which the senator has attacked the president). The NYT also runs a secondary piece; it goes light on the analysis but reports on both candidates' efforts to incorporate news of the tape into their last series of campaign appearances.
The LAT is the only paper to front an unfortunately ironic counterpoint to the bin Laden tape—news of the intelligence reform bill's collapse in Congress. House and Senate negotiators could not hammer out a compromise on several thorny issues, including Pentagon control the intelligence budget. The paper also fronts an excellent story on the growing hatred of the United States in Pakistan, which only adds to the overall gloomy news offered about the war on terror.
Continue Article
Other election news dominates the rest of the papers' front pages. The Post hits the early voting story a day late, and adds little that the NYT didn't offer up yesterday. For its part, the NYT examines the voters who are switching from the party they supported in 2000. The piece has some interesting details about the strength of the candidates' support from their political bases, but it is mostly an attempt to offer a view of the electorate at a time when most political pros have concluded it's too late and too close to watch the polls. The LAT has the best color from the campaign trail, with a report on Bush's swing through Ohio with California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The Post assesses the possibility of a drawn-out election in which a winner cannot immediately be declared. While at least one expert tells the paper the 2000 election was an historical anomaly, others fear Florida-style chaos. Perhaps the biggest problem will be provisional ballots, which are given to voters who don't appear on registration lists. This is the first presidential campaign in which the ballots are being used nationwide (they are now required by federal law), and they are already the subject of intense litigation.
The NYT fronts a story that may become bigger news in the next few days, given the Kerry campaign's ripped-from-the-headlines approach to criticizing President Bush (see also: al-Qaqaa). A new study shows the serious and increasingly apparent effects of global warming on the Arctic. The NYT obtained the study—which was prepared by the United States and seven other countries—after Europeans involved in the research complained that the Bush administration was holding the results until after the election.
The Post offers a healthy reminder that U.S. politics are relatively tame when compared other countries' electoral efforts. The paper has an excellent review of the tense (and at times violent) presidential campaign in Ukraine, where voters head to the polls tomorrow. Ukrainians' choice, as the Post explains it, is between an opposition candidate favoring closer ties to the West and a ruling party candidate favoring closer ties to Russia. Significantly, both candidates support withdrawing Ukrainian troops from Iraq.
Back at home, the NYT examines the struggles of traditional airlines and the growth of low-cost carriers. The nominal newspeg is ATA Airlines' bankruptcy filing, but a troubled discounter doesn't exactly fit the storyline and is thus buried at the end. In truth, the story reads as if it could have run any time in the last three years.
All the papers front a handful of local stories, but a couple will be interesting to readers across the country. An article in the LAT examines the case of an L.A. man who falsely incriminated himself in three slayings. The paper reports that the man had an IQ between 60 and 73 and uses his case as an example of a problem nationwide: Children and mentally impaired adults regularly offer confessions for crimes they did not commit. The Post gets ready for Halloween with its report on a Virginia haunted house staged by Jerry Falwell's Liberty University. The paper reports that evangelical groups are staging such scary Halloween-related events to frighten visitors into accepting God.
Alexander Barnes Dryer is a former Slate intern. |
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| BadBadNeil |
Depends who looks at it.
Some people will see the tape as remembering 9/11 and why we are in this war in the first place. This will favor Bush.
Some people will see the tape and remember that we went into Iraq before capturing Bin Laden and this should favor Kerry. |
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| policerobots |
It also depends how each side takes the story and uses it to their advantage. with such a sensitive issue nobody wants to take it the wrong way and let it explode like a hand grenade in their campaign.
but personally, i have a hunch that both sides are going to bring it up, but not go balls-to-the-wall over the issue just becuase theres not that much time left until tuesday. |
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| imokruok |
Well, it's widely known that most traders on Wall Street are Republican...and it's pretty apparent that they thought the tape would help the President. News of the tape was released at the last moment the market was even.
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=^DJI |
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| speedracer_mec |
First of all this is not an October surprise by the GOP
Reasons being:
1)Al Jazeera released it specifically to influence our elections.
2)Translators around the world know the content/authencity of the tape
Dem Spin:
"Bin ladin is still out there, another Bush Admin failure"
Rep Spin:
"Bush is the terror gladiator, Bin ladin is out there and wants us to not vote for Bush....Should we listen to Bin ladin?"
In my opinion this story does several things:
1) Thank god it completely blew the explosives story out of the picture for the weekend.
2) Brings Bin Ladin back into the picture and ties him to extreme liberals like Micheal Moore.
a) How else did he know about the children, Bush was reading to on Sept. 11? I doubt he dug up the actual news clip. I think he probably popped some popcorn and watched the Fahrenlies 9/11 dvd...in his cave.
3) From the actual transcript, He mentioned Bush more than Kerry throughout the 18minute tape. Yea yea Kerry and Bush will not secure Americans....But its obvious he was saying that he doesn't want Bush in office. The effects of this?
a) Brings back the memories of 9/11- People from states like New Jersey will definitely have this in mind when going out to vote. This state is well in play....and Terrorism is the biggest issue in that state.
b) Brings back the word TERRORISM into the election bid
- Bush has polled in every poll nationwide consistently higher than John Kerry in the category of Terrorism. He leads Kerry in the terrorism category in double digits.
4) Brings an emotional message into America overall.
a) the DNC spin will bring a more rational approach by saying yea,"Bush failed to catch Bin Ladin." Fact of the matter is that him sending a video rather than actually attacking the U.S. says alot about the Bush Adminstration containing the terrorists by fighting them on their turf.
Lets think about this for a second:
- America is not Spain :Not to diss spain in any manner because my mom is from Spain. Our elections are protected and the fact that Bin lading sent a tape and didnt hit us. Imagine if terorists hit us? What will that say about the security Bush has implemented throughout his 4 year term? A failure right? So this tape saws alot about the capacity of Al Queda to attack our country and the job the U.S. Has done to destroy 75% of the group.
- Some Extreme Jihad Liberals might even want an attack to show how "pathetic" Bush has been....which is pretty sad but true.
b) Will the American Public listen to Bin Ladin?
He basically endorsed Kerry...he mentioned Kerry once in the tape and mentioned his hatred towards Bush many times. Who will the American public trust more with the face of Bin ladin back into televisions nationwide across all homes in all battleground states.
The polls suggest Bush strong on terrorism and this plays right into his hands.
overall effect:
Swing voters will now be once more reminded of the big issue : TERRORISM -------Bush advantage nationwide. |
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| LiquidX |
| Seen the most recent polls from Friday to Sunday.. show Kerry taking sort of lead.. I dont know if this might be an effect of the video or something else... but I dont think none of this candidates want to play around with the video. |
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| Spacey Orange |
Looks like the tape won't make a difference to the US electorate.
| quote: | US voters say Osama bin Laden won't sway them: report
NEW YORK (AFP) - American voters say Osama bin Laden (news - web sites)'s sudden re-appearance has not changed their minds about the upcoming election, according to a report by the New York Times, which said it conducted dozens of interviews in five key states after the broadcast of a new message by the Al-Qaeda chief.
Some thought bin Laden, whose group was blamed for the September 11, 2001 attacks, was trying to tip Tuesday's election toward Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites); others said he was angling for four more years for President George W. Bush (news - web sites).
Some said his message, broadcast Friday by Al-Jazeera television, would remind voters of Bush's failure to capture him. Others said it would scare up more votes for the incumbent.
Many theorized that the tape could influence voters, but said that their own convictions remained unshaken.
The bin Laden message was just one more item in a flood of campaign news and advertising in the countdown to the campaign, according to David Hill, a musician of Denver, Colorado.
"I don't think people are really responding anymore," he said. "We're shell-shocked."
"People I know are so polarized, it doesn't make any difference," said his wife, Jan Hill.
"Wow, it's perfect timing for him to come out of the woodwork," said warehouse worker McKinley Olds of Cleveland, Ohio. "It doesn't make any difference to me, I'm still voting for Kerry."
"It's more of the same, basically, about what you'd expect from this group," said Rex Reeve of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. "I'll definitely be voting for Bush."
Tyler Lisenbee, a property manager in Denver who was leaning toward Kerry, said bin Laden was unlikely to affect the election at all unless he was captured before Tuesday.
"Then I'd probably vote for Bush," he said.
Seeing how voters appeared to have shrugged off bin Laden's latest salvo, the article's author went on to assert that the terror kingpin may have made himself "irrelevant."
"With passions raised to such a pitch by this election, and with many people already committed to their choices, Mr bin Laden and his blustering postures may have achieved a strange and remarkable feat: making himself irrelevant, despite the analysis of some political operatives that his tape could affect the election, to Mr Bush's benefit in particular," the Times said.
The Washington Post for its part printed an editorial Sunday on "The Osama Surprise," assessing bin Laden's "appeal to Americans" as if he were a US politician making a speech.
"It was not a picture of great strength that Osama bin Laden offered Friday," despite proving that he is alive, healthy and in command of an organization, the Post said.
Bin Laden seemed "defensive," his tirades clunky and his proposals preposterous, the Post said.
"Something is clearly troubling Osama bin Laden: Could it be the millions of Afghans who eagerly turned out to vote in the country's first democratic elections this month and who overwhelmingly supported the moderate, pro-Western Hamid Karzai for president?
"Or the growing support for democratic government in Iraq (news - web sites), especially from senior members of the Islamic clergy?" the Post asked. |
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