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Zogby: Bush Surges like a mighty Tidal Wave
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| speedracer_mec |
In ohio
Bush 49%
Kerry 43% |
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| josh4 |
| quote: | Originally posted by speedracer_mec
In ohio
Bush 49%
Kerry 43% |
links or stfu |
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| xKaoSx |
| quote: | Originally posted by speedracer_mec
In ohio
Bush 49%
Kerry 43% |
jesus christ- shut the up moron
you're worse than spyware today |
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| josh4 |
| quote: | Originally posted by xKaoSx
jesus christ- shut the up moron
you're worse than spyware today |
llllllloooooooooollllllll |
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| speedracer_mec |
| quote: | Originally posted by josh4
llllllloooooooooollllllll |
on the reuters website idiot
stay on top of all the polls next time pls |
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| MisterOpus1 |
| quote: | Originally posted by speedracer_mec
on the reuters website idiot
stay on top of all the polls next time pls |
Searched Reuters, couldn't find it anywhere. Do you have a specific link?
Regardless, you might want to read this article about early/mid-day exit polls. It reassures anyone the early/mid-day results, regardless of which party you vote for:
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main...polls_what.html
He states to be weary of these early/mid-day exit polls for the following reasons:
| quote: | 1) It is still just a survey – Even when complete, an exit poll still has the same random variation as any other survey. NEP says typical state exit polls will have a sampling error when complete of +/- 4% at a 95% confidence level, and +/- 3% for the national exit poll. Even if comparable to the final numbers – which they are decidedly not – the mid-day leaked numbers would have much greater error, perhaps +/- 7% or more.
2) The mid-day numbers do not reflect weighting by actual turnout – the end-of-day exit poll used to assist the networks in determining winners will be weighted by the actual turnout of voters at each selected precinct. The weighting will then be continuously updated to reflect turnout at comparable precincts. In the past, mid-day numbers have reflected a weighting based on past turnout, so the leaked mid-day numbers may tell us nothing about the impact of new registrants or the unique level of turnout this time.
One point needs emphasis here: even in past elections, networks never called an election based on raw exit poll numbers alone. They were first weighted by a tally of the full day's turnout at each sampled precinct. This end-of-day data is (obviously) not available at 12 noon.
3) Voting patterns may be different early in the day - People who work full time jobs typically vote more heavily before or after work. Even a perfect mid-day exit poll – and there is no such animal – may not be any better at picking a winner than the half-time scores in any given football game on Sunday. Also, despite what you may have heard on the West Wing, I know of no serious study showing a consistent Democratic or Republican tilt to the morning or evening hours (if anyone does, please email me).
4) Early or absentee voting - As of last night, the ABC News survey estimated that 15% of all registered voters nationally had already cast absentee or early ballots. Obviously, these voters will not be available to interviewers standing outside polling places. To incorporate early voting, the National Election Pool is doing telephone interviewing in 13 states to sample the votes of those who voted early. Will these early votes be included in the mid-day leaked numbers? Who knows? I wouldn't count on it. (Good question, Andrew).
5) They could be fictional - Both sides have huge armies of field workers sweating it out in the streets right now. Field workers have been known to find creative ways to boost the morale of their own troops or demoralize the other side. Might someone start a rumor by sending made up numbers to a blog? Ya think? After all, the guy most web surfers turn to for leaked exits likes to say that the information he provides is only 80% accurate. What are the chances he could be, excuse the technical term, making up?
6) The people who do exit polls would rather you ignored them - OK, admittedly, that is a pretty wimpy reason, but they have a point. Exit polls provide a valuable resource for all of us. The will help us better understand who the voters are, why they vote the way they do and what the answers are to some of the debates that have raged for months that will not be resolved by vote returns alone. When someone leaks or broadcasts results of an exit poll (or telegraphs it by winking the way certain news networks tend to do about about 4 or 5 o'clock), calls are made to ban exit pollsters from polling places. That would be a very bad thing. |
The rest of the article is pretty interesting too. His point #3 has merit as well - historically Democratic voters tend to vote later in the day, vs. Republicans who tend to vote early. Something about demographics or something. Anyways, something to chew on as we struggle to get through the next 12 hrs...... |
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| JM |
YEAH! Ohio for Bush!
>JM< |
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| LiquidX |
| quote: | Originally posted by speedracer_mec
In ohio
Bush 49%
Kerry 43% |
According to Gallup and FOx Kerry is ahead.. :conf: |
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