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Post-election thoughts from a Kansas Democrat
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| MisterOpus1 |
Yes, there are actually a few of us here in Kansas. I've licked my wounds long enough this morning to garner a few thoughts:
*Needless to say it was a bit difficult to sleep with such a large boot in my left ass cheek. My indigestion from the overcooked crow pie really didn't help much either.
*No need to be too bitter here, and credit must be given where it's due - a humble congratulations to all Conservatives here and throughout the nation. I'm sure you do not need to hear it from me, but you should be very proud of your accomplishment.
*And speaking of accomplishment - a 4 million swing in popular vote towards the Republican incumbent is not just telling, that's simply mind-blowing! Regardless of what turns out in Ohio (I'm sure it's going towards Bush), this figure alone is the collective nail in the coffin.
*To top things off, Republican seats were gained in both the House and Senate. Again that's simply not just telling, that's a very loud message.
*Daschle was a weenie - most Dems. saw this comin', and if they didn't they were only fooling themselves. He has about as much backbone as Frist. Both leaders are weak in the Senate.
*Back to the Presidency - what was the decisive issue here? Christianity? The Swifties? A shift of America towards Conservatism?I think they most certainly all played a small role, but overall I don't think those issues were the decisive difference. I'll get back to Christianity later. The Swifties may or may not have played a role - according to Zogby, if anything they actually fired up the Dem. base and had an insignificant to partially positive effect for Kerry. Personally I see the following 2 issues:
1. War-time President - this was simply too big of a mountain to climb. Over and over on NPR and in the polls I heard so many undecideds and partial party-swayers state that they simply don't want to upset the status quo with the Presidency during a war. From this aspect historically this was simply too much of an uphill climb for any challenger.
Memo to next Democratic President - invade someone before your re-election. Anyone. Christ, screw Canada! Haven't they broken a couple of UN Mandates somewhere? Well, make some up if they haven't!
2. GOTV - this was the cleanup area of any remaining undecideds, and honestly I believe it was the sleeper factor. There was a highly touted GOTV effort by the Dems., and many of them including a number of bloggers were collectively patting themselves on the back for their efforts.
They had no idea just how much better the Conservatives were doing in the grassroots arena. The liberal bloggers are slow to admit this (actually some are in complete denial), but I think they got their clocks cleaned here. It would do them credit to admit defeat and learn from the victors a little bit here.
The Dems. also had the unfortunate GOTV result of relying on the youth vote (18-24) to carry them to victory. Historically this was a ridiculous notion. If you didn't learn this from '72, there's no point in trying to tell you now that it was a hopeless notion. Did we really pin our hopes on MTV and Rock the Vote? Please tell me that wasn't the case.
Some other issues to note:
*Internet efforts by the Dems were highly overrated. The money collected was impressive, but I think we relied too heavy on technology, and less so on basic good ol' door-to-door grassroots campaigning. Oh sure, I'll bet there was some descent efforts here, but as I mentioned before I believe the Republicans did a superior job in this aspect.
*Can we please finally give the exit poll company, whoever the hell they are, the boot? They screwed it up big time in '02, changed their name in hopes that no one will recognize them, and they came out lookin' like complete idiots again. So long, exit polls - you gave us Dems. one too many early dreams and hopes. Now kindly off for good.
*Nice to see Moore soundly defeat that loudmouth, arrogant asswipe Kobach in my local US House district. Kobach truly annoyed the crap out of me, and most agreed that his arrogance overshadowed his ability to run a stronger campaign. Taff would have been a different story altogether.
*Comin' back to the Christian vote - I'm going to give this a little more weight than I originally did. Part of this came out from the Evangelicals workin' up their followers, which was exactly what Rove stated was the key. ing Rove. I hate that slimeball. What's his going price for '08?
Regardless, the surprise sleeper stat. was the "moral issues" for the undecideds. We heard nothing but Iraq, Terrorism, and the Economy as the 3 big issues comin' in for the undecideds - where the hell did moral issues come from? That was simply incredible and unforseen, even by the Conservatives. There's much to be learned from this in the future.
*Hillary, don't even think of runnin' in '08. Your best hopes of anything is to hang on the coattails of Obama in 2012 as VP, but anything higher than that is gonna put our collective liberal asses in a worse sling than they currently are right now.
*In hindsight, Kerry's probably smarting from not picking Gephardt instead of Edwards. I like Edwards, a lot. I think he has tremendous potential in the future. But Kerry simply didn't play the electoral map well. Missouri could have very well gone to Kerry with Gephardt on the ticket, and the Dem. campaigning there would have been relentless. That alone was a 22 electoral vote swing, more than enough to give Kerry the Presidency.
Final thoughts:
*I'd love to believe that the normal nuance of "let's heal together after this election and stop the partisan bickering" would hold true, but I think the Dems. would be fooling themselves if they believed that will happen. Judging by the arrogant actions of this Administration and the GOP, shutting many Dems. out of policy meetings and decision making processes, the thought of this Administration learning how to compromise and negotiate is nothing shy of a pipe dream.
*Yes, more of the same is to come. In fact, I think a great deal more than that is on the horizon - SS privatization, prescription drug prices going through the roof, a flat tax, and of course Roe v. Wade being overturned. I've talked enough here to argue these points further, but again, judging by the convincing majority and arrogance of the GOP right now, I project all these events occurring in the next 4 years.
And please Conservatives, don't take too much offense when I call the GOP arrogant and corrupt. I think most of you agree this is the case anyway. Besides, who would argue that the Dem. legislature was equally arrogant and corrupt in the 60's and 70's? Payback's a bitch Dems., sorry. But on the flip-side, Conservatives had better be careful with their power. History has demonstrated time and again that arrogance and corruption come back to haunt you.
*I was hoping with a Kerry victory, or in the very least, a Kerry majority vote victory, it would give the GOP pause onto whom to elect in '08. I was hoping that a Moderate Republican was on the horizon - maybe Guliani or McCain. Judging by the way things are now, hell, why not throw Rev. Pat Robertson on the ticket? Seriously, I no longer forsee a moderate on the ticket in '08 for the Republicans, but I sincerely hope I'm wrong. As I've stated before, even I would consider a moderate Republican in the future.
*My last thought is one that I think is shared by many -
In a small way I'm somewhat relieved that Bush is here for 4 more years. He and the GOP have put us into a mess in Iraq and by borrowing money from everyone else, they have thrown our country into the largest deficit in history. You have put us into this mess, I think it is only fair that this same Administration and government get us the hell out of this mess somehow. I have sincere doubts, however, as Bush seems not to give 2 s about the deficit in any way, and I honestly don't foresee Iraq getting any better. One can only hope that a true democracy can actually stabilize the region as our idealogue president and neoconservative Administration would have us believe.
But who knows, perhaps they can do it. Honestly they don't have much of a choice. The economy has sputtered since the beginning of the summer. The band-aid effect of the tax cuts can only cover up the deep wound for so long. The stimulus is long gone - if we don't get on our feet soon we never will. Conservatives, you have no choice but to help America move forward collectively. Here's to hoping you can do it.
Oh, one last thing, needless to say, yes admittedly the Dems. are weak as hell. Well, maybe not that weak, but they have their work cut out for them. If there's any advice for the Dems that I would give, I would say sit back and allow the Repubs. to do what they want for the next 2 years. Personally I think they're only going to shoot themselves in the foot even further with both Iraq and the economy. And then when the time is right, get a ing backbone and learn how to pounce for once in your life! As we have clearly seen, negative attack ads and character mudslinging works - learn to play dirty or get off the ing playing field. |
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| JM |
thank you. finally a post i can read and respect.
>JM< |
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| xKaoSx |
| Thanks Opus- I feel a LITTLE better after reading your wise words. |
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| occrider |
| I can't believe you took the time to make an intelligent post. I think I'm going to lie low for the next few days in the polit forum to avoid the petty bickering. |
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| MisterOpus1 |
| quote: | Originally posted by occrider
I can't believe you took the time to make an intelligent post. I think I'm going to lie low for the next few days in the polit forum to avoid the petty bickering. |
Good call, I'll join you over a brew. Oh wait, can you drink yet, damnit? |
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| Shakka |
| Very classy, Opus. Thanks. I hope for all of our sake that we are all well served over the next 4 years.:) |
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| torontotrance |
| I just think that Americans voted for the lesser of two evils but that's politics. |
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| auujay |
| quote: | Originally posted by MisterOpus1
I was hoping that a Moderate Republican was on the horizon - maybe Guliani or McCain.
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I am getting really sick of Guliani ("America's Mayor" wtf is that!?). I really hope he does not run in '08. McCain has always been my favorite GOP senator, and I would much rather see him on the '08 ticket. I can actually see him working with democrats (it would have been so awesome to have him running as Kerry's VP but that was simply too much to ask for...)
Anyway, good post. What really gets me is this "moral issue" BS. It is depressing to think about what a huge infuence the religious right (I mean "Evangelicals") had. Bush is going to be appointing so many judges in the next few years (not just on the Supreme Court) it is going to make me sick. Don't even get me started on Ohio's Issue 1, that is just sad.
Like someone said elsewhere on this board, at least their is a two term limit...
I think one of the major downsides to this election is our place in the world. As Madeleine Albright said, if Bush is elected it will tell the world that Amaricans agree with what Bush has been doing.
Now I am going to try to stop caring about politics, rights, morals, or ethics for the next for years so I don't go crazy. |
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| policerobots |
| Cheers to Opus! |
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| MisterOpus1 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
Very classy, Opus. Thanks. I hope for all of our sake that we are all well served over the next 4 years.:) |
I never doubted Bush's intentions in doing so, but I tend to think his ideals supercede reality much of the time. The next 2 years will be very interesting for both parties, to say the least. Bush simply has to gain more popularity and keep his ass over 50%, and the Dems., well, like I said they need to learn to stick to their issues and gain a backbone. Intellectual reasoning is all well and good, but sooner or later us Dems. have to decide on an issue, for better or for worse, and stick with it.
I think the next choice for the Dem. Presidential ticket has to go for a governor next time around - the Senate thing just doesn't work. The opposition can simply slice and dice your voting record any way they choose in a negative light. Though I REALLY do like Durbin and Biden, and would both make terrific candidates, I just think the Democratic tactics have to change, and fast. |
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| Itarillė |
| i'm a bit late on the response here to this thread but i'd just like say cheers to you, Opus! :toothless |
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