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Traders and CS Nerds... (pg. 2)
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| Choobak |
| quote: | Originally posted by madhattared
i likey
yeah Interactive Brokers has a whole API that i'm going to have to learn to build the trading interface and trading decision tree. however i'm not so sure i'm going to do the momentum game. you're right every one is going to be doing that for such a short period of time for 10 week's. So inorder to beat them i'm going to have to come up with something more efficent and less risky.
the computer will basically be running 24/7 looking at different things in the market. problem is the API requires a windows box =(
so i can't use the linux supercomputers here at school to trade. that'd be sweet cause i'd have a T3 of bandwidth plus a cluster of 16 boxes. so i'm going to try and pic up an athlon x2 for xmas |
there's nothing like throwing around a ridiculous amount of computing power...
i'm going to take a closer look at the rules for this competition. i work at a hedge fund and i do a fair bit of options trading on the side so if i get any good ideas, I'll be sure to throw them your way... |
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| kid nyce |
| quote: | Originally posted by Choobak
there's nothing like throwing around a ridiculous amount of computing power...
i'm going to take a closer look at the rules for this competition. i work at a hedge fund and i do a fair bit of options trading on the side so if i get any good ideas, I'll be sure to throw them your way... |
how about some buying tips |
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| Choobak |
| quote: | Originally posted by kid nyce
how about some buying tips |
buy low, sell high.
ha.. i don't really know. people in the market are very hesitant/indecisive right now. On the long term side, I just put some money in pfizer (PFE) and i'm looking at putting money in anheuser busch (BUD). They've been hit hard recently but they're fundamentally sound companies. If they keep dropping the way they have, I'll keep adding to those positions.... |
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| Stassi |
| quote: | Originally posted by madhattared
it implies you can predict the future. and i'm doubful you can, atleast in the short term. i'm sure if you wait long enough you probably will get a return on your investment, although probably not a sizeable one. the contest is in the short term so a trading strategy for 10 weeks is ideal |
its not predicting the future.
its investing smart. |
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| Stassi |
crude oil has made more money this quarter than has ever been documented.
but it may be a lil late for that.
on that note. I made quick buys/sales on Pathmark and Revlon and got profits from both ends.
-zo |
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| madhattared |
| quote: | Originally posted by Choobak
buy low, sell high.
ha.. i don't really know. people in the market are very hesitant/indecisive right now. On the long term side, I just put some money in pfizer (PFE) and i'm looking at putting money in anheuser busch (BUD). They've been hit hard recently but they're fundamentally sound companies. If they keep dropping the way they have, I'll keep adding to those positions.... |
BUD i think just had a miss last quater but i don't know about pfizer, they're having alot of problems with their bottom line and their future products aren't anything like they used to be with viagra and lipator. i like AMGN and DNA for pharma.
what hedge fund do you work at? i just had an interview at Amaranth and I think it went well. what do you do trade or work in IT?
i'm up 65% on my portfolio for my investments class since Sept 12th.
=)
www.cs.rpi.edu/~martij10/profit.jpg |
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| madhattared |
| quote: | Originally posted by Stassi
its not predicting the future.
its investing smart. |
you can't invest smart for 10 weeks and make a decent return. not with a portfolio where you're just holding securities
and the time to buy oil stocks was the first and 2nd week in september. |
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| Choobak |
| quote: | Originally posted by madhattared
BUD i think just had a miss last quater but i don't know about pfizer, they're having alot of problems with their bottom line and their future products aren't anything like they used to be with viagra and lipator. i like AMGN and DNA for pharma.
what hedge fund do you work at? i just had an interview at Amaranth and I think it went well. what do you do trade or work in IT?
i'm up 65% on my portfolio for my investments class since Sept 12th.
=)
www.rpi.edu/~martij10/profit.jpg |
Pfizer did get punished hard by the market - maybe a little too hard. At this price I figure the stock's fairly valued at about a 5% growth rate which it should have no problem exceeding over the long term. Plus, the stock should maintain a healthy dividend yield (3 to 4%). I really just bought this one for some diversification in my retirement account - looked like a good deal and I'm in no rush to sell... I'm really interested in BUD because it's tanked so hard (for a large multinational at least) over the past year. I haven't done enough research to decide whether or not to buy it - it just appears so damn cheap.
I actually work for a fund of funds but we're closely affilited with a small long/short energy fund - do some macroeconomic and broad industry sector research for them.
I can't open your picture but 65% is damn impressive in these market conditions. It been insanely volatile - great for day trading though... |
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| madhattared |
yeah i've been daytrading options.
www.cs.rpi.edu/~martij10/profit.jpg does it work now?
yeah those stocks are pretty cheap but buying stocks because they're at lows doesn't always work. they seem like good companies so you'll probably be fine |
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| Choobak |
I think you should definitely stick to options with this one. I'm working on some long term delta hedging strategies right now for the broad market so I don't think that can be of much help in a 10 week competition. You might just want to go highly leveraged with cheap out of the money options close to expiration - 2 months of less. Do it across a wide range of stocks overweighting in either puts or calls depending on overall market conditions. There's nothing really quantitative about it. Just throwing a whole lot of leverage in a specific direction.
What kind of trades are you doing right now in your options portfolio? |
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| madhattared |
i've been doing short term speculation trading and basically looking at options that i think are severly miss priced. especially with low volume options its easy for them to get unrational with the price their pegged to. so its kind of a hole in the simulation where if i can purchase the option before its actually traded on the market i can get a severe price correction pretty quickly and make alot of dough.
now its fake money but it works for the current simualion. for the automated one i was thinking about doing some quick options calcuations with monte carlo sims on options that expire in like you said 2 or less months. as you go further out the options become much more likely to be price correctly because they don't take in the short term price movements of the stock.
the biggest problem though isn't knowing when to buy but being able to figure out that the price has moved enough and its time to sell. you can estimate a price change but if its just a smidgen off it won't transact so you have to be careful with percentage changes and time changes for a day trading algorithm. def some fascinating stuff. |
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| madhattared |
This is my long term portfolio. I basically am going to hand this in for my investment course as my final portfolio with one stock in each sector.
BSC
CAT
CPL
FO
GOOG (seeing the massive price change i'm not so sure anymore)
NKE
PTR
UNH
WMT
this portfolio is up 8% in the last 7 days of trading. nice but still a long term portfolio. i'm kinda pissed because some jackass got lucky in my investments class and now he's up 100% so i gotta find a way to make ~30% in a week thats not as risky. i have a couple ideas i'm toying with but we'll see how that plays out |
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