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Bunker-busting nukes on Iran - would they work?
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| MisterOpus1 |
I won't pretend to give answers to this problem with Iran. It is pretty apparent that the Administration is beginning to beat the drum for various reasons, though by most accounts we are talking about a threat anywhere between 5-10 years away. Regardless, that's not what I wanted to discuss here.
What I did want to discuss is the hypothetical of an attack on Iran. First off, it appears we will be without our primary key ally if we do go:
| quote: | Tony Blair has told George Bush that Britain cannot offer military support to any strike on Iran, regardless of whether the move wins the backing of the international community, government sources claimed yesterday.
Amid increasing tension over Tehran's attempts to develop a military nuclear capacity, the Prime Minister has laid bare the limits of his support for President Bush, who is believed to be considering an assault on Iran, Foreign Office sources revealed.
http://news.scotsman.com/uk.cfm?id=577092006 |
So our poodle will not be comin' along for the ride. Not that I think this would deter Bush any, but it is pretty interesting. Blair's heart just ain't in another debacle led by the Shrub.
But my primary concern is this talk about bunker-busting nukes. Would they work? That's a question that has multiple answers - would it deter the Iranians or would it only infuriate them and the rest of the Arab world? We could discuss that here if need be.
But in terms of physical effects of these bunker busters, the Union of Concerned Scientists had come up with an answer as to the effectiveness of these bombs. In short, they wouldn't do given our current type of missile being utilized:
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_securi...-animation.html
And the fallout/radiation would wreak serious ing havoc on the surrounding areas to boot.
So if this is indeed the case, what other options outside of a full scale Iraq-like attack do we really have? |
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| juzfugen |
There is no need for a ground war like Iraq, anyone who says so is a moron and lacks insight into military capabilites and strategies. RNEP's will/should not be used, the irony of using nukes to prevent proliferation...:eyespop:
While the majority of the enrichment site is underground
There are facilities there that can be bomb which would impact that sites effectiveness. Ever heard of carpet bombing, a few sorties of B-2 could easily make that picture look like the moon landscape. Rendering the entire are unaccesible. We dont have to destroy Irans nuclear program, we need to delay it (as long as possible)
If there is a need for boots it will be a contengant of Ranger/AB/SFunits doing an in and out but I doubt they will be needed.
Honestly it wouldnt suprise me to wake and see on the news Israel took care of this problem like they did to Iraq. |
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| MisterOpus1 |
| quote: | Originally posted by juzfugen
There is no need for a ground war like Iraq, anyone who says so is a moron and lacks insight into military capabilites and strategies. RNEP's will/should not be used, the irony of using nukes to prevent proliferation...:eyespop:
While the majority of the enrichment site is underground
There are facilities there that can be bomb which would impact that sites effectiveness. Ever heard of carpet bombing, a few sorties of B-2 could easily make that picture look like the moon landscape. Rendering the entire are unaccesible. We dont have to destroy Irans nuclear program, we need to delay it (as long as possible)
If there is a need for boots it will be a contengant of Ranger/AB/SFunits doing an in and out but I doubt they will be needed.
Honestly it wouldnt suprise me to wake and see on the news Israel took care of this problem like they did to Iraq. |
And I don't necessarily disagree with such an attack if Israel truly believes such a plausible threat exists.
So okay, I'll go with your assessment. There are some analysts, however, that state that such an attack (carpet bombing for example) may not necessarily slow down the program, but may actually do the opposite and speed up the operation, especially in the deep underground sites. Is there any plausibility to this assessment in your opinion?
And would you agree that it's more likely the Iranians keep their most prized nuclear facilities and materials deep underground versus on the surface for the very tactical attack you mention? |
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| Q5echo |
"The Rods From God"
| quote: | | HOW DO THE RODS WORK? The system would likely be comprised of tandem satellites, one serving as a communications platform, the other carrying an indeterminate number of tungsten rods, each up to 20 feet in length and 1 foot in diameter. These rods, which could be dropped on a target with as little as 15 minutes notice, would enter the Earth's atmosphere at a speed of 36,000 feet per second--about as fast as a meteor. Upon impact, the rod would be capable of producing all the effects of an earth-penetrating nuclear weapon, without any of the fallout. |
>SOURCE< |
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| Moongoose |
| quote: | Originally posted by MisterOpus1
And would you agree that it's more likely the Iranians keep their most prized nuclear facilities and materials deep underground versus on the surface for the very tactical attack you mention? |
That would be that smart thing for them to do. They know that many people dont like the fact that they have a nuclear program, and they know that they can be hit to, so digging a bit deeper would be a logical choice. And the thing is no one would know that they are continouing with their operations underground, as far as the world knew their facilities were destroyed.
I also think that any suck attack would only make them speed up the program. Since they have already been bombed they have nothing to loose. |
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| juzfugen |
I think Iran is running hand over foot already trying to get enough enriched material to produce a bomb, so I dont see how an attack could speed up a process already running at 110%.
I definitely agree with what you are saying about the most "prized" facilites being underground and there inlies the problem. My whole premise of "carpet bombing" would be to assure there is now way to access these underground structures.
As I mentioned in my previous post special forces insertion is a viable option, setting 100 of these guys in that compound to take control and destroy can be done. This type of mission is part of their training, they only drawback is the amount of casualties that could happen. That is the reason air strikes are so appealing, minimum amount of lives at risk for maximum damage output, cruise missles are the best for obvious reasons.
Id love to be a fly on the wall in Teran to hear what the Irainians are thinking. |
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| hardcore trancer |
| quote: | Originally posted by Q5echo
"The Rods From God" |
Bush: " My god told me to attack Iraq"
:rolleyes: |
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| Q5echo |
| quote: | Originally posted by hardcore trancer
Bush: " My god told me to attack Iraq"
:rolleyes: |
you wished he said that.
...but it is weird the name and all. very appropriate given this, the greatest religious conflict in a millenia |
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| hardcore trancer |
| quote: | Originally posted by juzfugen
That is the reason air strikes are so appealing, minimum amount of lives at risk for maximum damage output, cruise missles are the best for obvious reasons. |
yup we know how effective and accurate they are.I mean look at Iraq barely no civillians were killed from the air strikes,only a few thousands were killed. :rolleyes:
| quote: | | Id love to be a fly on the wall in Teran to hear what the Irainians are thinking. |
you are about to attack another country,at least learn how to spell its cities names.It is TE"H"RAN :o |
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| Kapedan |
| quote: | Originally posted by hardcore trancer
yup we know how effective and accurate they are.I mean look at Iraq barely no civillians were killed from the air strikes,only a few thousands were killed. :rolleyes:
you are about to attack another country,at least learn how to spell its cities names.It is TE"H"RAN :o |
Tehran..Teran..same crap. |
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| hardcore trancer |
| quote: | Originally posted by Kapedan
Tehran..Teran..same crap. |
What else can we expect from an uneducated yank like you? |
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| Q5echo |
| quote: | Originally posted by hardcore trancer
What else can we expect from an uneducated yank like you? |
dude. stop |
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