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Panic in Tehran
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| Fir3start3r |
One great big, "Yikes" for the Iranian administration with a sprinkle of, "Doh!".
Should be interesting to see where he pops up and if he sings like a canary.
I know I'd be interested in hearing what/how they think in the hive mind of the Iranian admin...
One question I'd have is, did he leave of his own volition or was he coaxed? Hmmmm...
*Lets the conspiracy nuts out for some random thoughts...*
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Panic in Tehran
PJM in Tel Aviv
March 7, 2007 12:30 AM
The disappearance and possible defection of former Iranian deputy defense minister Ali Reza Asgari has the Iranian government deeply worried — and for good reason.
Meir Javedanfar, an expert on Iran and co-author of an upcoming book on Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, reports.
The recent disappearance of Ali Reza Asgari, Iran’s former deputy defense minister who was on a visit to Istanbul has been a mystery for the past several days.
Now a report by the Arabic newspaper Al Sharq Al Wasat says that Asgari defected to the US after arriving in Istanbul from Damascus on February 7th.
Although the story has not been confirmed by any sovereign authority, it is already evident that the saga has created panic inside Ahmadinejad’s administration.
Soon after his disappearance was discovered, Iran dispatched an operations team to Ankara to help the Turkish authorities to look for him. At the same time, a public relations campaign was launched with Iranian minister Mottaki has doing his best to downplay Asgari’s importance as an official in order to reduce the damage to the Iranian government’s image.
He wasn’t fooling anyone. It is clear that Asgari is a man privy to numerous secrets which Iran desperately does not want revealed. As well as being a former deputy defence Minister, Asgari was also a General in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC). The IRGC, more than any other branch of Iran’s armed forces, is aware of, and has access to Iran’s nuclear program. Its members are in charge of monitoring and protecting Iran’s nuclear installations, and scientists.
Furthermore, the IRGC is in charge of developing and testing Iran’s missiles, an arsenal which Iran has threatened to use if attacked. Last but not least, the IRGC is in charge of training and arming Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iraqi Shiite militants in Iraq.
Western intelligence agencies, especially the Mossad and the CIA, have invested massive sums of money and manpower in order to ascertain Iran’s activities and capabilities in all the aforementioned areas.
So far, they have not always been successful. Iran is a relatively closed society which is extremely difficult for foreign agents to penetrate. The job is made even harder by the ruthlessness and efficiency of Iranian counter intelligence organizations, which are very active in Iran, and around Iranian individuals and bases in places such as Iraq and Lebanon.
If Asgari has defected, he will be offer great assistance to Western intelligence efforts and while he won’t be able to answer every question, would be able to fill in some crucial gaps.
Furthermore, Asgari’s disappearance is a sign that cracks are appearing in Iran’s intelligence community. The very fact that someone as senior as he was able to disappear without a trace, is in itself a signal that the regime may be losing its grip on observation and security of major human assets.
Of course, it is not yet confirmed that this was a defection – some reports have speculated that he may have been kidnapped by the Mossad or the CIA. Such reports were fuelled by accounts that Asgari first booked a room in Hotel Ceyhan, but then checked into a different hotel in Istanbul, and disappeared soon afterwards. With no records showing that he left Turkey, it was thought that he was probably smuggled out by his kidnappers. If this is the case, this would not be the first time that a kidnapping victim is smuggled out of a country without the local authority’s knowledge. In May 1960, the Mossad kidnapped and smuggled Adolph Eichmann, a former senior Nazi official out of Argentina and to Israel, where he stood trail for his crimes.
President Ahmadinejad must be hoping for this scenario, since, it turns out that Asgari indeed defected, things can only get worse.
Such an act would be interpreted as a major sign of discontent within senior Iranian military figures against his aggressive policies. With increasing dissatisfaction against Ahmadinejad emanating from Iran’s population; such a blow is something which Ahmadinejad can currently ill afford, and something that those who view him as a danger have been hoping for.
UPDATE @ 10:42 EST: “The Iranian former deputy defense minister who disappeared in neighboring Turkey last month is being questioned in a northern European country under strict supervision…. Ali Reza Asghari is undergoing thorough investigation by intelligence forces before being transferred to the United States.” (Haaretz )
Meir Javedanfar together with Yossi Melman, is the author of the upcoming book The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran – Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran
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| Magnetonium |
Let me guess - this defector will tell us in broad televised campaign that Iran is developing weapons of mass destruction / nukes, just like the Iraqi defectors before the American invasion of Iraq were saying? LOL :haha: :haha: :haha: |
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| Fir3start3r |
| quote: | Originally posted by Magnetonium
Let me guess - this defector will tell us in broad televised campaign that Iran is developing weapons of mass destruction / nukes, just like the Iraqi defectors before the American invasion of Iraq were saying? LOL :haha: :haha: :haha: |
I don't see the humor but then, any confirmed intelligence of the sort wouldn't exactly be funny.
I have no doubts that Saddam had some major weaponage. Whether they were WMD's in the sense of the word is quite another question...
But lets not confuse the subject at hand shall we?
Let's, for a change, concentrate on the subject?
Iraq is a totally different ball of wax and has been beaten to glue already... |
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| Omega_M |
| Well let's hope it's a defection. Kidnapping will make matters worse and domestically strengthen Mr Ahmadinejad's case against the US. |
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| Magnetonium |
| quote: | Originally posted by Fir3start3r
I don't see the humor but then, any confirmed intelligence of the sort wouldn't exactly be funny.
I have no doubts that Saddam had some major weaponage. Whether they were WMD's in the sense of the word is quite another question...
But lets not confuse the subject at hand shall we?
Let's, for a change, concentrate on the subject?
Iraq is a totally different ball of wax and has been beaten to glue already... |
Sorry about my comparisons with Iraq, because whats happening to Iran right now is what happened to Iraq before the invasion - build-up of American forces in the region, defectors (telling of WMD's), arms supplies to the accused country, accusations of terrorism support, lack of democracy, demands to disarm, and also for a new one IRAN IS "ALLEGEDLY" building nukes. Just like Iraq was armed with WMD's. Why should I fall for the tenth time to American propaganda that lied big time before?
As for direct topic, pardon me, there's no PANIC in Iran, its just sensationalism to make it look like Iran has nuclear secrets to hide or hide the fact that they're buying Russian weapons which can even be confirmed on a Russian website. Iranians were merely concerned that their politician was taken hostage or lost his way, and if defection was the case, any nation would be concerned about a defection and what that would to to its image and security. But not panic. I'd be concerned too, if some of my important friends disappeared or became upset with me or ditched me. This is just a media campaign to make it look like this guy will soon give us the overwhellming evidence, tell us Iran is months away from launching nuclear bombs at USA. |
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| hardcore trancer |
| lol @ the topic of this thread!!:haha: |
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| LazFX |
| quote: | Originally posted by hardcore trancer
lol @ the topic of this thread!!:haha: |
LOL@ you, you must have your ear to the grindstone of Iranian affairs :rolleyes: I mean, you fled that country didn't you? I bet your parents would beat your ass if they found out you supported the same people that had your family running like roaches when the lights come on.. ha ha |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Magnetonium
Let me guess - this defector will tell us in broad televised campaign that Iran is developing weapons of mass destruction / nukes, just like the Iraqi defectors before the American invasion of Iraq were saying? LOL :haha: :haha: :haha: |
i find it amazing that the anti-US people on here fail to ever see any "evil" in any other country around the world. i also find it amazing that you believe diana was murdered, UFOs built ancient egypt, bush was behind 911, yet cant fathom of a nuclear arms race in iran :rolleyes: you should donate your brain to science. |
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| Fir3start3r |
| quote: | Originally posted by Magnetonium
Sorry about my comparisons with Iraq, because whats happening to Iran right now is what happened to Iraq before the invasion - build-up of American forces in the region, defectors (telling of WMD's), arms supplies to the accused country, accusations of terrorism support, lack of democracy, demands to disarm, and also for a new one IRAN IS "ALLEGEDLY" building nukes. Just like Iraq was armed with WMD's. Why should I fall for the tenth time to American propaganda that lied big time before?
As for direct topic, pardon me, there's no PANIC in Iran, its just sensationalism to make it look like Iran has nuclear secrets to hide or hide the fact that they're buying Russian weapons which can even be confirmed on a Russian website. Iranians were merely concerned that their politician was taken hostage or lost his way, and if defection was the case, any nation would be concerned about a defection and what that would to to its image and security. But not panic. I'd be concerned too, if some of my important friends disappeared or became upset with me or ditched me. This is just a media campaign to make it look like this guy will soon give us the overwhellming evidence, tell us Iran is months away from launching nuclear bombs at USA. |
That all sounds like a patsy argument and way too easy of a conclusion.
The truth of the matter is, we know nothing about Iran other than the facade they give us, so this can only be a good thing for both sides really.
Why you ask?
Because for one, as the article states, we don't fully understand who we're dealing with. Especially coming from a land that figures shouting mobs crying, "Death to America" is somehow, normal modern behavior.
The other is Ahmadinejad. He's like a duck; calm on the surface, but underneath you just know he's paddling like crazy.
Kicking out U.N. inspectors on a regular basis doesn't exactly give us the warm fuzzies when they're just trying to do their job.
The better we understand them, the more likely a common compromise can be made otherwise we're stuck with all the phobias... |
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| LazFX |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
i find it amazing that the anti-US people on here fail to ever see any "evil" in any other country around the world. i also find it amazing that you believe diana was murdered, UFOs built ancient egypt, bush was behind 911, yet cant fathom of a nuclear arms race in iran :rolleyes: you should donate your brain to science. |
I think I found my new sig!!
ps: also ever notice how the majority of the anti-us posters on here live in the West/US and reap the benifits that the US/West gives them daily?
Oh sure, point out the mis steps of US policy, till your blue in the face, but Ignore the man behind the curtain that will kill you and your family if you stilled lived in that country or society you prop up.
:rolleyes: |
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| hardcore trancer |
| quote: | Originally posted by Fir3start3r
The other is Ahmadinejad. He's like a duck; calm on the surface, but underneath you just know he's paddling like crazy. |
Isnt that how most leaders are in the world?what makes him more evil then others?
because he is from Iran?:rolleyes: |
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| hardcore trancer |
| quote: | Originally posted by LazFX
LOL@ you, you must have your ear to the grindstone of Iranian affairs :rolleyes: I mean, you fled that country didn't you? I bet your parents would beat your ass if they found out you supported the same people that had your family running like roaches when the lights come on.. ha ha |
It is much better then bing a Mexican refugee and joining the army like you. |
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